The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts public internet AI models will hit parity within nine months
“So if you are using the open internet, Lama, Mistral, OpenAI, they're all getting to the same Quality code point, and they will be there within the next six to nine months.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 58:07 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Opinion
Chamath: Meta fumbled its open-source AI strategy with Llama
“Meta really fumbled this with Llama.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 23:16 Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California’s Broken Elections
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: BitTensor Subnet 3 trained a distributed 4B parameter Llama model
“Two days ago, you may not have seen this because you were busy on stage, but there was a training run that happened in this crypto project called BitTensor. Subnet three, they managed to train a four billion parameter llama model, totally distributed with a bu…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 31:02 Jensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis
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