why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Decreasing IP value will hurt traditional studios while gaming wins
“I think the value of patents and by extension, IP and copyrights are going to go away. And in that, there's going to be a spectrum where certain content IP holders lose and other ones win. I think gaming is on the winning side, to be honest, and I think conten…”
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Disney CEO Bob Chapek won't survive the year
“I think Bob What's his name? Bob Chapek. I don't think he's going to survive the year after what just happened at Disney, and it's because he gave in to the employees, took sides against the, you know, governor in Florida and the legislature, and they just rip…”
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Major IP owners like Disney will license content to AI in 2024
“Rights holder is getting licensing deals for generative AI, or there's gonna be a couple of blockbuster deals this year. Where you'll see like Disney license out a chunk of their library.”
Opinion
Sacks: Disney was 2023's biggest business loser due to social backlash
“My biggest business loser is Disney. It seems that every aspect of Disney's business the bed in 20, 23. I mean, all their major theatrical releases flopped amidst a conservative backlash against its woke social stances.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Disney will launch its own generative image product
“Disney is going to launch their own Dolly type stable diffusion product where you can do this, put yourself on a star, make a Star Wars character.”
Opinion
Chamath: Culture war backlash caused Disney's theme park traffic decline
“So the fact that Disney has been decaying for the past year Is more emblematic of the fact that they've gotten into this social culture war and half the population of America said, we're not going to support your business like they did to Bud Light.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts Disney will roll over Netflix in the streaming wars
“I think they're going to roll over Netflix.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts Disney will catch up and roll right over Netflix
“They're going to catch up to Netflix and then they're going to roll Netflix. They're going to roll right over Netflix.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Salesforce Atlas AI solves Disney employee queries with over 90% accuracy
“Atlas delivers for Disney, for their cast members, which are their employees, through extremely complex, ah, problems that it's solving for them, more than 90% accuracy and almost no hallucinations. And in some cases, 95% accuracy and almost no hallucinations.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: Disney's Net Promoter Score dropped from fifties to single digits
“Disney's brand, it used to have like a NPS of like in the fifties is now in the single digits”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Every company must eventually choose between Coinbase or Disney model
“I think every company eventually is going to have to either be Coinbase or be Apple. You're going to have to be Coinbase or be Disney.”
Assertion Supported
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs, Disney, and Epic Games brought interactive Darth Vader to Fortnite
“Fortnite launched Darth Vader, which people and players could interact with live, in partnership with the estate, in partnership with Disney, so every player, after reaching a certain stage, could have a Darth Vader interact and help you solve the missions.”
Disclosure
Calacanis: Holds Disney stock, sees potential asset sales or acquisition
“Right now I'm going to ride it out. I think their IP collection is amazing. I think there's a chance that, you know, depending on how the FTC winds up being run over the long term, that Disney could be selling pieces of that business, and I think that it could…”
Insight
Friedberg: Disney's media advantage is the re-watchability of its content
“The advantage Disney has is the re-watchability of their content.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Disney will be the top corporate winner of 2022
“I had two Disney was my biggest corporate winner for twenty-twenty-two. Disney Plus crushing it. Parks raised prices. People want to go to the parks. Spider-Man just had, I think, the number two or number three all-time opening in a pandemic, which is crazy. T…”
Disclosure
Calacanis discloses stock purchases in Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, and Netflix
“I bought the stock and it's the one thing in my J trading portfolio I've gotten crushed on that and Warner Brothers Discovery. I made two entertainment bets and what I think are the two best companies. I also did Netflix, but one out of three ain't good.”