why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Partly held up
Friedberg: Huawei will deploy undisclosed lithography to rival top chips by 2026
“My early prediction for 20, 26 is Huawei where I think that there's a lithography technology that exists in China that is not publicly discussed. That is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China. And Huawei can …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: China plans for Huawei to dominate domestic chips, then expand globally
“And I think their plan would be to have Huawei dominate chips in China first, and then use that to scale up and then try to take over the rest of the world at chip production to scale up business.”
Assertion Supported
Sacks: China is blocking Nvidia chips to subsidize and elevate Huawei
“I think Bloomberg and Reuters reported that they actually are not allowing Nvidia chips into their country, and the reason for that, we think, is that they want to indigenize chip production. They want to stand up Huawei as their national champion, and effecti…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Huawei will outperform Western expectations in 2026
“My number one is Huawei, which I've mentioned in the past. Out of China, I think Huawei's effort to Partner with SMIC to go deeper in the chip stack. And they're just firing on all cylinders. I do think keep an eye on Huawei over the next year. It's going to o…”
Prediction Partly held up
Friedberg: Huawei will challenge Nvidia in 2026 using undisclosed lithography tech
“My early prediction for twenty-twenty-six is Huawei, where I think that there's lithography technology, that exists in China that is not publicly discussed, that is going to be deployed in Huawei and all these fabs that they're building in mainland China.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Nvidia's H20 chip is two years ahead of Huawei's chips
“It's called two years ahead of kind of the chips from Huawei.”
Assertion Supported
Feldman: Huawei clobbered the U.S. in developing world telecommunications
“They clobbered us in Africa. They clobbered us in the developing world. They absolutely ran the table.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kratsios: Huawei captured global telecom markets using subsidies despite having subpar tech
“When Huawei first started their sort of global export push they certainly were not the very best technology in the world. They were current, they were certainly, you know, subpar compared to Ericsson and Nokia, yet they were good enough and they were subsidize…”