The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chamath: Nvidia will likely compete directly with GCP, AWS, and Azure
“So I think it's likely that Nvidia goes on a full frontal assault against GCP and Amazon and Microsoft.”
Sergey Brin: Google Cloud turns away customers due to compute shortages
“For us, we're kind of building out compute as quickly as we can, and we just have a huge amount of demand. I mean, for example, our cloud customers just want a huge amount of TPUs, GPUs, you name it. You know, we just can't, we have to turn down customers beca…”
Friedberg: Enterprise cloud market has no lock-in for AWS, Azure, or GCP
“The cloud is a wide open competitive market right now. Like there is no AWS lock-in in this market. There's no Azure lock-in. There's no GCP lock-in”
Palihapitiya predicts AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud will split market evenly
“So there's all these reasons why eventually all these three big companies will converge effectively, roughly a third. We're going to debate the path to get there, but that's where they'll end up.”
Lafont: Synthetic index of AWS, Azure, and GCP is all investors need
“Well, I think all four of us would agree that if we could synthetically own AWS, Azure, and GCP, if I could somehow automagically create an index of all three of those businesses, right, over the next five years, you wouldn't need to own anything else.”
Pichai: Google Cloud is supply constrained this year
“We are supply constrained this year in our cloud business”
Calacanis: Google Cloud posted record 82% year-over-year revenue growth
“Well, if you look at Google Cloud, they posted 82% year-over-year revenue growth, which is something we've never seen in the history of these cloud providers.”
Pichai: Half of Google's 2025 compute CapEx is for Google Cloud
“Looking at twenty-twenty-five and looking at the compute part of the span half of that is going towards our cloud business in twenty-twenty-five.”
Pichai: YouTube and Google Cloud reached $110B run rate last year
“Last year, we exited a combination of YouTube and cloud at hundred and ten billion dollars.”
Jason Calacanis: Google Cloud grew 63% year-over-year to $20B in a quarter
“Google Cloud, which includes the Google Suite, that grew 63% year on year. Let that number sink in. 63% on twenty billion in revenue. That's in a quarter.”
Friedberg compares revenue run rates and growth for AWS, Azure, and GCP
“AWS has a hundred twenty-four billion dollar revenue run rate. Microsoft, one hundred twenty billion, and Google Cloud, fifty four billion. But AWS, which is slightly larger than Microsoft, is only growing 17% year over year. Microsoft's 26% year over year, an…”
Friedberg: Google Cloud generated $10.3B revenue and $1.2B profit last quarter
“GCP in the last quarter did 10.3 billion in revenue, which is up from eight billion in revenue the year before in the same quarter the year before. And importantly, in this past quarter, they're running at a 1.2 billion dollar operating profit out of GCP.”