why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Vance: Claiming the iPhone is designed in Cupertino is increasingly untrue
“That the idea that the iPhone is designed in Cupertino is increasingly no longer even true, right? It's something that we lie to ourselves about because the people who are doing all the manufacturing of the hardware of the iPhone are getting much better at des…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Nvidia's Blackwell transition is unprecedented, comparable only to the iPhone
“There's never been a product transition like this in the history of semiconductors going from Hopper to Blackwell, you know, kind of the 2022 generation GPU to this one. The only precedent for this on planet earth is the iPhone.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Discreet earbuds and budget phones will win consumer AI hardware over $1,500 iPhones
“And so, you're more likely to have a very simple earbud that is, you know, very inconspicuous and discreetly in your inner ear well, speaking information to you, than you are, and with a companion 500 dollar phone, than I think you will be with a 1500 dollar i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Apple's AI features will fail to drive major iPhone upgrades
“So the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade. I think is pretty speculative, and I think they're going to be disappointed.”
Opinion
Sacks: ChatGPT plugins are the most important developer platform since iOS
“I think this is the most important developer platform since the iPhone and the launch of iOS and the app store. And I would argue maybe ever. In our industry, certainly since the beginning of the internet.”
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Advanced AI models will ultimately run locally on iPhones
“Ultimately these things end up on the iPhone running locally, and you don't need to go to the cloud.”
Opinion
Altman: The iPhone is humanity's greatest piece of technology
“I personally think an iPhone is, like, the greatest Piece of technology humanity has ever made.”
Opinion
Calacanis: Apple services growth does not solve peak iPhone slowdown
“They've got a great collection of services, and services revenue is growing, but I don't think that they are filling in this growth problem with the iPhone.”
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: NSO Group created zero-click exploit to spy via iPhone cameras and microphones
“The Israeli spy firm NSO had apparently created a zero click exploit for the iPhone, where you could turn on the camera and the microphone and basically spy on folks completely unaware.”
What-if
Chamath: The iPhone would never have existed without Steve Jobs
“The iPhone would never have happened had it not been for Steve Jobs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Thomas Lafont claims Apple reduced iPhone share of gross profit from 90% to 40%
“Over a decade ago, 90 plus percent of their gross profit was a one-time hardware sale on the iPhone. And no one thought that they would ever be able to get away from the drug of selling that one iPhone unit, right? And cut to, you know, over a decade later, it…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: LLM-powered Siri will trigger a massive iPhone upgrade cycle
“The second one I think will be when Apple comes out with iPhone, you know, with LLM powered Siri, assuming they do a decent job with that. I, it's going to lead to a huge upgrade cycle.”
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Google pays Apple $15B annually for default iPhone search placement
“Today, Google pays Apple, fifteen billion dollars a year to be the default Search engine on iPhones on the Safari browser.”