why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Lütke: Shopify will support any legal merchant regardless of political views
“As long as they do something legal, we support them. And in fact, we are just pushing them from behind via tool. Like, your screwdriver is not going to tell you that you can't screw in something into a wall because you're a Republican voter.”
Disclosure
Lütke: Shopify randomly deletes all recurring meetings every 18 months
“Once every couple, year and a half or so, we randomly delete all recurring meetings.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts Shopify, Square, and Stripe will disrupt Apple and Amazon
“I think that over the next decade, because of exactly what you guys said, that Apple is run by managers who don't want to see loss, but aren't driven to gain, you're going to end up seeing Amazon in particular, and Apple likely as well, Lose to the likes of Sh…”
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: 70% of Klaviyo's business depends on Shopify
“The only vulnerability or negative, I think, about Clavio's business is the fact that 70% of it is on Shopify.”
Insight
Lütke: Economic downturns cause consumers to shift down one quality tier
“Fundamentally what people do is they, in most categories they shift one quality level downwards.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lütke: 85% of successful founders had access to 24-hour text mentorship
“We survey people that, like, successful stores tend to, like, I think with 85% answer that you had someone who would return a text in 24 hours with a question about starting a business. It's massive predictor of success.”
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath claims Shopify pays Stripe approximately $350 million annually
“If you look inside the P and L of Shopify, an enormous line item now about three hundred and fifty million bucks a year is what they're paying to stripe.”
Disclosure
Tobi Lütke rules out launching private-label 'Shopify Basics' products
“Yeah, so, now, I mean, I don't wanna do Shopify Basics or something like this. That would be totally a side quest for us, and I'm big on main quest, so I wanna keep things.”
Insight
Lütke: Shopify inventory represents discretionary consumer wants, not necessities
“Fundamentally, the products sold on Shopify are not are the products people want, not the products people need.”
Assertion Partly supported
Palihapitiya: Shopify developers have written over 1M lines of code with Copilot
“Shopify has written more than a million lines of code with Copilot already.”
Assertion Supported
Lütke: Shopify has processed $500B in cumulative lifetime transactions
“About half a trillion dollar has been transacted through Shopify in its lifetime”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lütke: Shopify supports 86 payment gateways and I wrote 42 myself
“Shopify supports 86 different payment gateways. I wrote 42 of integrations myself.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Shopify laid off 10% of workforce, around 1,000 people
“Shopify just laid off 10% of its workforce, about a thousand people on Tuesday.”