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Apple

includes Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Apple Photos, Apple Podcasts, Apple Intelligence, Apple Music, Apple Newton, Apple Pay, Apple Store, Apple M4, Apple M5 and 26 more

134 statements across 72 episodes · 34 bullish · 61 bearish · 17 people on the record · first statement Mar 19, 2020 by Chamath Palihapitiya · said 1,279 times in 216 episodes since 2020 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Jason Calacanis (709), Chamath Palihapitiya (199), David Sacks (151), David Friedberg (110), Brad Gerstner (19), Gavin Baker (14), Thomas Laffont (8), Reid Hoffman (7)

tap a year for its mentions
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025502020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
007.52515502020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 127 mentions in 34 episodes 4 per episode
2025 172 mentions in 37 episodes 5 per episode
2024 485 mentions in 41 episodes 12 per episode
2023 115 mentions in 32 episodes 4 per episode
2022 145 mentions in 37 episodes 4 per episode
2021 208 mentions in 25 episodes 8 per episode
2020 27 mentions in 10 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Apple, oldest first

Mar 19, 2020 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple should be forced to bring manufacturing to US
“Apple should probably be forced to bring a lot of their production capacity back into the United States. They should find a diversified global supply chain so that you have multiple suppliers in many countries in the world. But they should rely more on America…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 19, 2020 ▶ 1:10:41 E1: US Response to COVID-19 & Impact on Startups, VC & Public Markets with David Friedberg
Jul 31, 2020 bearish
Opinion
Chamath ranks Facebook at highest regulatory risk and Amazon at lowest
“If you had to stack rank to risk, I think Facebook is number one at the top of the list. Then I think it's Google. Then I think it's Apple. And then I think far, far, far down is Amazon.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 10:50 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
Jul 31, 2020 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Amazon is the scariest monopoly because it endlessly expands into adjacencies
“I think he's the scariest monopolist out of the whole bunch. You know, if you look at kind of Amazon versus say Google or Facebook or Apple, I mean, those other companies are sort of sticking to their original footprint. Whereas Amazon keeps expanding into new…”
David Sacks Jul 31, 2020 ▶ 1:13:30 E6: Big Tech antitrust aftermath, potential effects of an M&A clampdown on Silicon Valley & more
May 22, 2021
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Calacanis: Antonio García Martínez will probably receive a $10M settlement from Apple
“And of course, this led to a petition at Apple, which then led to him being fired, which now is going to lead to him probably getting a 10 million dollar settlement.”
Jason Calacanis May 22, 2021 ▶ 3:32 E33: Apple’s hypocrisy, America fails math, crypto’s regulatory correction, Clubhouse, UFOs & more
Jun 13, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Tech giants fear remote work hides thousands of unproductive employees
“And I think what this really comes down to is a fear on the part of Apple and Google and Facebook. They've got thousands of employees who aren't really working and are going to be able to completely hide.”
David Sacks Jun 13, 2021 ▶ 46:12 E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, Bitcoin & more
Jun 13, 2021 negative
What-if
Sacks: Apple employees would race back if Steve Jobs were alive
“If Steve were still around, those Apple employees would be racing back to the office because they'd be so excited about what they're working on.”
David Sacks Jun 13, 2021 ▶ 1:22:19 E35: Biogen's controversial Alzheimer's drug approval, the billionaire space race, Bitcoin & more
Jun 25, 2021 neutral
What-if
Calacanis: Apple lowering App Store fee to 15% would end developer backlash
“If Apple just made the take rate 15%, this entire thing goes away. Epic Games feels great. Spotify's feel great.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 1:08:39 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
Jun 25, 2021 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Apple is run by HR people and woke mobs
“The reality is the great genius who founded Apple is long gone. It is run by HR people and woke mobs.”
David Sacks Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 1:11:56 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
Jun 25, 2021 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Antonio García Martínez makes $300K-$700K on Substack after Apple firing
“He is getting paid probably 300,000 to 700,000 dollars To write on Stubstack after getting fired, and after getting a giant settlement from Apple, whatever that's gonna be.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 1:10:19 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
Jun 25, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sachs: Apple has no innovation left and just collects rents
“And so there is no more innovation there. They are just a gatekeeper collecting rents.”
David Sacks Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 1:12:08 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
Jun 25, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts Shopify, Square, and Stripe will disrupt Apple and Amazon
“I think that over the next decade, because of exactly what you guys said, that Apple is run by managers who don't want to see loss, but aren't driven to gain, you're going to end up seeing Amazon in particular, and Apple likely as well, Lose to the likes of Sh…”
David Friedberg Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 1:12:24 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
Jun 25, 2021 negative
Disclosure
Calacanis: Apple's 30% App Store fee hurts portfolio company margins
“We're saying get rid of the 30% app store fee because that negatively impacts our portfolios. Let's be clear here. This is screwing with the margins at a lot of the companies we invested.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 25, 2021 ▶ 1:08:24 E37: NYC rejects far-left candidates, new developments in lab leak theory, App Store breakup & more
Jul 3, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sacks: Amazon, Google, and Apple are clearly monopolies or duopolies
“Those companies are clearly Monopolies are duopolies in their spaces.”
David Sacks Jul 3, 2021 ▶ 1:15:49 E38: Bestie brawl, Robinhood's $70M fine & S-1, Delta variant, next gen candidates & more
Sep 4, 2021 bearish
Opinion
Sacks argues Apple was greedy with 30% rake and is getting slaughtered
“Apple has been a hog and now it's getting slaughtered.”
David Sacks Sep 4, 2021 ▶ 57:45 E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan
Sep 4, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath says major mobile app stores will be deconstructed and opened
“It's the beginning of the beginning for, you know, the app stores to be deconstructed and opened.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 4, 2021 ▶ 55:34 E45: Theranos & VC fraud risks, China bans video games, Texas SB8, Apple app store, CA fires, Rogan
Oct 2, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Apple's internal political turmoil will eventually hit operating results
“And eventually that'll show up in the operating results of the business. It's just a matter of time.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2021 ▶ 15:40 E49: Coinbase CEO reflects on controversial blog, state of the markets, 1000 unicorns & more
Oct 2, 2021 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple's technical blunders stem from employee political distractions
“I tend to think those kinds of technical mistakes happen when people take their eye off the ball. And I think people take their eye off the ball because they're demoralized with dealing with distractions.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 2, 2021 ▶ 18:44 E49: Coinbase CEO reflects on controversial blog, state of the markets, 1000 unicorns & more
Oct 2, 2021 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Apple's internal activism will cause chaos over Chinese supply chains
“By enabling all of this woke mob inside their own company by coddling them, addressing them, and not keeping them focused, they will eventually get to the fact that China is, you know, has three million Uyghurs in a concentration camp, and those Uyghurs are pr…”
Jason Calacanis Oct 2, 2021 ▶ 17:24 E49: Coinbase CEO reflects on controversial blog, state of the markets, 1000 unicorns & more
Oct 30, 2021
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Apple ad revenue is surging while iOS privacy hobbles Facebook
“For example, this Apple, you know, ad revenue business, I think is climbing by billions of dollars while Facebook's core business is being affected by the cookie tracking policy change on Apple iOS.”
David Friedberg Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:12:28 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Oct 30, 2021 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Apple intentionally skipped VR to focus directly on AR
“And so I think Apple has skipped VR on purpose, and they're going to AR.”
Jason Calacanis Oct 30, 2021 ▶ 1:15:14 E53: Wealth tax, inflation as a capital allocator, big tech earnings, paternity leave & more
Nov 13, 2021 neutral
Prediction Held up
Sacks: Tim Cook won't retire until Apple launches AR glasses
“I think he doesn't want to retire until this comes out and he can see this is going to be his signature product, I think.”
David Sacks Nov 13, 2021 ▶ 1:20:29 E55: Valuing crypto projects, Rivian worth $100B+, inflation: causes and corrections and more
Dec 23, 2021 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Apple and open-source platforms will handily beat Meta in VR
“I think that their VR efforts, AR efforts will be beaten handily by Apple and by the metaverse and You know, open source slash decentralized solutions.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 30:06 E60: The 2021 Bestie Awards PLUS Jack Dorsey starts the Web3 Wars
Jan 8, 2022 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon raised under $250M combined
“Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon raised collectively less than two hundred and fifty million dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 8, 2022 ▶ 54:02 E62: Elizabeth Holmes verdict, fraud origins & takeaways, navigating "The Great Markdown" & more
Jan 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Global supply chain disruptions will be resolved by early 2023
“So I think we're dealing with a, you know, six to nine month issue of having turned things off and are now rapidly trying to turn things back on and we can't necessarily get that timing right. But I do think it'll work itself out faster than people expect pers…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 29, 2022 ▶ 52:45 E65: VC markup dynamics, Russia/US tensions over Ukraine, Altos Labs raises $3B, Stripe mafia & more
Feb 5, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Google pays Apple $15B-$20B annually for search default status
“They pay Apple 15 or twenty billion dollars a year.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 49:08 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 12, 2022 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Microsoft's open app store strategy will pressure Apple and Google
“And I think this is a first step towards a really interesting play that Microsoft could pull, which is essentially to scorch the earth of app stores, which is Google's and Apple's really big money printer to make a completely open permissible platform with ver…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 12, 2022 ▶ 1:02:34 E67: Revisiting Rogan, Canadian truckers' protest, fusion breakthrough, $MSFT's savvy move & more
Mar 26, 2022 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Warren Buffett has only bought two tech stocks: Apple and Snowflake
“What are the two technology companies Buffett bought in the public markets? Apple. Apple and Snowflake.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 48:01 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Apr 23, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Apple TV+ beat Netflix to win the first streaming Best Picture Oscar
“Apple, after only a few years, wins the first Oscar of any of the streamers, right? Beating Netflix, even though they've been in there and spent a hundred for best picture, but I'm saying.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 23, 2022 ▶ 54:23 E77: Tech work culture, crypto regulation, stablecoins, $NFLX & more w/ Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
Apr 23, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Every company must eventually choose between Coinbase or Disney model
“I think every company eventually is going to have to either be Coinbase or be Apple. You're going to have to be Coinbase or be Disney.”
David Sacks Apr 23, 2022 ▶ 18:25 E77: Tech work culture, crypto regulation, stablecoins, $NFLX & more w/ Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong
May 26, 2022 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Urban: Apple fired diversity head Denise Young Smith over comments
“You see Denise Young at Apple, a black woman who's the head of diversity, who says, to me, diversity is not, you know, it's more complicated than just about something like race. When I look at 12 blue-eyed, blond-haired guys, I see diversity. I see different p…”
Tim Urban May 26, 2022 ▶ 23:51 #AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
Aug 20, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Saudi Aramco made $48B net profit in a single quarter
“Saudi Aramco reported their earnings. The largest earnings ever for a company Forty-eight billion dollars of net profit in a quarter. That is more profit than Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Tesla combined in a single quarter.”
David Friedberg Aug 20, 2022 ▶ 47:23 E92: Adam Neumann's second act, a16z's $350M bet, housing policy, Inflation Reduction Act & more
Oct 22, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Apple's IDFA changes 'pickpocketed' $2B from the advertising industry
“Apple's changes with IDFA literally pickpocketed the industry two billion dollars this year under the auspices of privacy.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 22, 2022 ▶ 18:15 E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
Oct 29, 2022
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Apple spent $3.6 billion in today's dollars to build original iPhone
“Apple spent 3.6 billion dollars to create the first iPhone.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 35:56 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Meta spent more on Reality Labs than Apple spent building iPhone
“Look, Tesla's reinventing an entire category, trillions of dollars of energy generation and transportation, but they did it on in one year of meta reality lab spend. Apple reinvented an entire compute platform on one quarter of Meta's Reality Lab spend.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 54:38 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Oct 29, 2022
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Apple spent $396B on share buybacks while Meta spent $100B
“They've spent three hundred and ninety six billion dollars since 2016 to buy back stock. In the same time, Facebook has spent almost a hundred billion.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 29, 2022 ▶ 34:04 E102: Elon closes Twitter deal, $META uncertainty, Zuck's historic bet, big tech decline & more
Jan 6, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts Apple will make an out-of-the-ordinary acquisition like Disney or Fiat Chrysler
“So my wild card is I think Apple ends up buying something completely out of the ordinary.”
David Friedberg Jan 6, 2023 ▶ 46:29 E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
Jan 27, 2023 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple and Google hold app store duopoly and search monopoly
“And so domestically in the United States and Western Europe, there's a de facto duopoly, complete control, completely inflexible, inelastic pricing. That is a monopoly. And then separately for search in the United States, it is also an effective monopoly.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 27, 2023 ▶ 22:39 E113: DOJ tries to break up Google, vaccine questions, Ukraine escalation & more
Feb 4, 2023 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Apple will exceed $1T in total cash distributions by 2025
“By 2025, Apple will have exceeded one trillion dollars of cash distributions.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 4, 2023 ▶ 33:17 E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
Feb 11, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Google's default search deal with Apple could cost $25 billion
“This year, this renegotiation for that deal could mean that Apple gets paid twenty-five billion dollars for giving away that right to Google.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 45:40 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Feb 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: Google pays Apple $15B annually for default iPhone search placement
“Today, Google pays Apple, fifteen billion dollars a year to be the default Search engine on iPhones on the Safari browser.”
David Friedberg Feb 11, 2023 ▶ 52:16 E115: The AI Search Wars: Google vs. Microsoft, Nordstream report, State of the Union
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Chamath: Big Tech companies have passed peak growth and become cash cows
“I think we're now well past peak big tech. Their valuations may still go up because they generate such an enormous amount of cash flow. But these are exactly those kinds of businesses now. They are X growth, large cash flow businesses.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 8:00 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
May 19, 2023
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Tim Cook famously refused to meet with Elon Musk about acquiring Tesla
“Tim Cook famously wouldn't take the meeting. Elon said it. He wouldn't meet with them.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 19, 2023 ▶ 1:05:56 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 19, 2023 negative
What-if
Chamath: Apple should have acquired Tesla for $4B-$5B
“They should have bought Tesla when they could have the chance for four or five billion dollars.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 19, 2023 ▶ 1:05:44 E129: Sam Altman plays chess with regulators, AI's "nuclear" potential, big pharma bundling & more
May 26, 2023 bearish
Prediction Partly held up
Palihapitiya: Nvidia's margins will compress as major tech companies build custom chips
“In the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia. Facebook will have their own chip. Amazon will have their own chip. Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the prof…”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 26, 2023 ▶ 1:04:45 E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
Jun 10, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Apple signed a $2.5B, 10-year rights deal with MLS
“Apple who signed a two and a half billion dollar, 10 year license for the MLS said, you're right.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 10, 2023 ▶ 48:53 E132: SEC goes after crypto giants, Sequoia splits, LIV/PGA, Messi's deal + LIVE Q&A!
Jun 24, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
JCal: Seven tech stocks drive most of 2023 stock market gains
“Seven stocks make up the mo- most of the gains this year. Meta, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 24, 2023 ▶ 8:33 E134: Ukraine counteroffensive, China tensions, COVID Patient Zero, RFK Jr reaction & more
Jul 1, 2023
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts corporate DEI and ESG programs will be outlawed
“The second order derivative is now what lawsuits get launched and what are the implications for private companies, right? So right now this affects any institution that receives federal funding, and that includes all the universities. So there's no private or …”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 1, 2023 ▶ 29:26 E135: Wagner rebels, SCOTUS ends AA, AI M&A, startups gone bad, spacetime warps & more
Sep 16, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Four of Elizabeth Warren's top ten donors are big tech companies
“Four of the top 10 contributors to Elizabeth Warren are Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.”
Bill Gurley Sep 16, 2023 ▶ 20:18 All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles
Sep 22, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
Friedberg: 99.9% of market value for Apple, Microsoft, and Google came post-IPO
“99.9% of their total market value. Was realized post IPO”
David Friedberg Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 36:19 E146: Did the Fed break the VC model? Plus IPOs, M&A, revaluing unicorns & more
Sep 28, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jenny Just: $100 invested in PEAK6 in 1997 beat Apple's $180,000 return
“Bonds, a hundred dollars invested in 1997, now worth about 300 dollars. The market, about 700 dollars. Mr. Buffett, 1200 dollars. Apple, a 180,000 dollars. Peak six. Well, a hell of a lot more.”
Jenny Just Sep 28, 2023 ▶ 5:14 All-In Summit: Jenny Just on Peak6, the female market correction, poker, and risk
Dec 16, 2023 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Apple and Google app stores are monopolies and a mobile duopoly
“These app stores are absolutely monopolies within their ecosystem, and Apple and Google Android are absolutely a duopoly within the mobile space.”
David Sacks Dec 16, 2023 ▶ 17:50 E157: Epic legal win, OpenAI's news deal, FCC targets Elon, the limits of free speech & more
Jan 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Calacanis: Apple will give 50% of AI language model revenue to data licensors
“I predict Apple will do this, right? They'll do a language model where they say, 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries or subscriptions to this goes to the people we built it off of or the licensees.”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 29:48 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 6, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Apple will make huge gains in generative AI in 2024
“I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI. The end of the year, maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out. And I think they're not going to. Remain on the sidelines when …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 50:57 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jan 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Smartphone makers like Apple face slowdown as upgrade cycles lengthen
“Smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown. Consumers obviously love their phones and use them constantly, but people are skipping a generation of phones, and if you look at Apple's revenue, they're having a very hard time getting people to upgrade, …”
Jason Calacanis Jan 6, 2024 ▶ 36:45 E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Feb 2, 2024 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Tesla stock rose 800% from 2018 to 2023 compared to Apple's 345%
“If you compare Tesla to Apple, the second highest increasing stock price during that same time period, Apple went up 345%. Tesla went up 800%.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 2, 2024 ▶ 37:37 E164: Zuck’s Senate apology, Elon's comp package voided, crony capitalism, Reddit IPO, drone attack
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Calacanis agrees Apple Vision Pro will exceed $100B in five years
“I take the over.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 16:52 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Friedberg: Apple will reach $100B in Vision Pro sales within five years
“I think they're going to sell a hundred billion dollars of Apple vision pros, not this version, but this version plus the next version probably over the next. I would guess for them to get to a hundred billion in sales, it'll take them less than five years.”
David Friedberg Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 14:28 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Apple will sell 500,000 Vision Pros in 2024
“They've sold already 200,000 units. Which doesn't seem like a lot, but for a V one, that is a lot. And they're gonna sell a half million this year.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 12:56 E165: Vision Pro: use or lose? Meta vs Snap, SaaS recovery, AI investing, rolling real estate crisis
Feb 17, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Apple will include an AI image model in iOS 18 or iPhone 16
“Apple has been working on an open source image project, and so you're kind of gonna see, I think, in iOS, 18, or the next iPhone 16, they're gonna have an image model baked onto that phone.”
Jason Calacanis Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 36:28 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Feb 17, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Apple's next mobile devices will feature chips running AI models locally
“I think you're gonna see a chip on the next set of mobile devices by Apple that will run models locally.”
David Friedberg Feb 17, 2024 ▶ 36:56 E166: Mind-blowing AI Video: OpenAI launches Sora + Is Biden too old? Tucker/Putin interview & more
Mar 1, 2024 negative
Opinion
Palihapitiya: Moving Apple's car team to generative AI makes no sense
“I'm just saying it doesn't make a lot of sense that 2000 employees that were specialized in building a car all of a sudden now become the AI team.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 1:23:45 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024
Assertion Supported
Palihapitiya: Google pays Apple $18B to $20B annually for default search
“On the iPhone, it's somewhere between 18 and 20 odd billion dollars a year is what now Google pays Apple.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 42:59 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 1, 2024 positive
What-if
Sacks: Apple acquiring Tesla during the Model 3 rollout would've been smart
“That would have been a smart acquisition if they had done that.”
David Sacks Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 1:25:07 E168: Can Google save itself? Abolish HR, AI takes over Customer Support, Reddit IPO teardown
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Facebook and Apple are actively open-sourcing AI models
“By the way, that's what Facebook and Apple are doing right now.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 2:34 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg predicts Apple will gain smartphone market share as emerging markets grow
“If the emerging markets continue to grow GDP per capita and iOS continues to be the superior product, you'll see Apple able to steal into more share over time.”
David Friedberg Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 59:49 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 positive
Opinion
Chamath: Launching a cloud service is Apple's most valuable services opportunity
“In services, Jason, the most valuable thing they could do would be to launch a big cloud, I think.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:04:30 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Apple spent $10 billion on failed car initiative Project Titan
“Project Titan, which was ten billion dollars turned out to be a failure.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 53:14 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
What-if
Chamath: Apple would have been better off launching a Level 3 car
“They would have been better off going into the car market, launching a level three vehicle and just letting the market play out.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:03:13 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Facebook, Google, Apple, and TikTok are all infiltrated by foreign intelligence
“Facebook is infiltrated. Google is infiltrated. Apple is infiltrated. TikTok is infiltrated. So on that dimension, I think that it should be considered a hundred percent certainty that this data is getting back to not just the Chinese, but multiple state spons…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:11:12 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Apple booting Epic proves the company is overly powerful
“I mean, whatever dispute you have with Epic, you don't boot them out of your app store because you don't like their criticism of you. I mean, this is basically proving Exactly what everyone's been saying about Apple, which is they're too powerful and heavy han…”
David Sacks Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 51:44 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Calacanis: Apple services growth does not solve peak iPhone slowdown
“They've got a great collection of services, and services revenue is growing, but I don't think that they are filling in this growth problem with the iPhone.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 56:26 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Chamath notes Warren Buffett started selling Apple stock in Q4 2023
“He started to sell in quarter four.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 55:30 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Apple faces a terrible decade unless it opens new growth vectors
“And then you see all of these things, antitrust rules, killing projects in trillion dollar TAMs. Unfortunately, it speaks for a very bad Next five to 10 years for this company, unless they figure something out.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 55:41 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 8, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Apple's custom silicon will power local LLMs on devices
“They're making their own silicon. And I think it's going to power LLMs locally on the devices.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:05:12 E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
Mar 22, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks expresses doubt that the DOJ will win its Apple antitrust case
“And so I'm a little bit doubtful right now that the government's gonna be able to win this case.”
David Sacks Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 7:14 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Friedberg: Google Play app store fees range from 12% to 15%
“Google's app store costs, by the way, are not Apple's and they're not 30%. And we talked about this last time. I'll pull it up for you again. It's like 15 to 12 going down. It's a sliding scale.”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 12:50 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Friedberg: Apple is building in-house AI, using Google deal as paid stopgap
“It seems to me like there's, if Apple's doing the right thing, which I'm sure they are, they're probably building their own alternative platform here. They realize it's going to take them some time in the interim. They want to have a stopgap. And my guess is b…”
David Friedberg Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 26:01 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts new compute platform will render Apple DOJ suit irrelevant
“And frankly, probably in 10 years from now, we've already moved to a different compute platform and this is not going to matter.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 10:58 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Insight
Calacanis: Apple-Google AI deal cements alliance to counter Microsoft
“What I do think about this deal that's really interesting is it's sort of cementing the Google and the Apple Alliance against Microsoft and Microsoft has big, you know, AI ambition. So this is kind of interesting. If you lock in the duopoly of Google and Apple…”
Jason Calacanis Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 31:48 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks asserts reports of Apple licensing Google Gemini cannot be true
“The story can't be true because it'd be so strategically dumb. Like Jamas said, even if Google Gemini were great, you'd still want to invest in having your own thing because it's such a strategic technology. Why would you ever outsource it to your main competi…”
David Sacks Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 27:25 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2034
Chamath: DOJ Apple lawsuit will take 10 years or be dropped
“There's a, at least a 50% chance that the administration is going to turn over, which means that this lawsuit changes or goes away entirely. And then even if it does kind of proceed, it's going to take 10 years of very detailed arguments for something to happe…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 10:44 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple licensing Google Gemini signals giving up on in-house AI
“I think it's them giving up. This is the most consequential new development in technology and compute in probably 20 years, 30 years.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 24:39 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Apple will extract increasing value from apps if left unchecked
“If Apple were completely left unchecked, it would figure out ways to boil the frog and keep extracting more and more value out of downstream applications.”
David Sacks Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 21:50 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Calacanis: Apple DOJ suit will settle with iMessage and Watch concessions
“I think the settlement will be iMessage releases. They allow the thing about the Apple Watch.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 11:11 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
Mar 22, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Apple is 50-50 against Epic and effectively lost to Spotify
“So they're kind of fifty-fifty in their fight with Epic. They've basically lost against their fight with Spotify.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 22, 2024 ▶ 3:34 E171: DOJ sues Apple, AI arms race, Reddit IPO, Realtor settlement & more
May 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: There is no innovation left in hardware devices like iPads
“I mean, there's no innovation left, so they're just making the devices, you know, thinner.”
David Sacks May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:19:59 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Sacks: Apple's iPad 'Crush!' ad was off-brand for destroying creative tools
“I think that by destroying all those creative tools that Apple is supposed to represent, it definitely seemed very off brand for them.”
David Sacks May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:20:21 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 positive
Insight
Friedberg: Apple creates value by defining entirely new product categories
“Where they've really created value is on how unique the products are. They almost create new categories.”
David Friedberg May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:25:54 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
May 10, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts Apple will use excess capital primarily for stock buybacks
“They're probably just going to buy back the stock.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 10, 2024 ▶ 1:22:03 Sam Altman: Getting Fired (and Re-Hired) by OpenAI, Agents, AI Copyright issues
Jun 7, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Discreet earbuds and budget phones will win consumer AI hardware over $1,500 iPhones
“And so, you're more likely to have a very simple earbud that is, you know, very inconspicuous and discreetly in your inner ear well, speaking information to you, than you are, and with a companion 500 dollar phone, than I think you will be with a 1500 dollar i…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 1:07:38 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 7, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts Apple's AI features will fail to drive major iPhone upgrades
“So the idea that Apple with this thousand dollar device is all of a sudden going to figure out that this is why you're going to upgrade. I think is pretty speculative, and I think they're going to be disappointed.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 1:07:06 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 7, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Nvidia briefly surpassed Apple in market capitalization
“Actually today, NVIDIA passed Apple for a moment in time.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 19:35 DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market
Jun 14, 2024 negative
Opinion
Palihapitiya claims Apple weaponizes privacy selectively against Meta while favoring OpenAI
“Apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like, i.e. Meta. And they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when it's a company that they clearly support, OpenAI.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 49:53 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Jun 14, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis predicts Apple will win the AI consumer market
“I think this means that Apple is going to win the AI consumer.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 41:55 Elon gets paid, Apple's AI pop, OpenAI revenue rip, Macro debate & Inside Trump Fundraiser
Jun 20, 2024 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Trump claims Apple brought hundreds of billions back to the U.S.
“And they were able to bring back, I mean, Apple's an example. They brought hundreds of billions of dollars back from other countries into the United States and invested it here.”
Donald J. Trump Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 4:06 In conversation with President Trump
Jul 12, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: LLM-powered Siri will trigger a massive iPhone upgrade cycle
“The second one I think will be when Apple comes out with iPhone, you know, with LLM powered Siri, assuming they do a decent job with that. I, it's going to lead to a huge upgrade cycle.”
David Sacks Jul 12, 2024 ▶ 35:21 Biden chaos, Soft landing secured? AI sentiment turns bearish, French elections
Aug 9, 2024
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Google pays Apple $20B per year for default search placement
“Google's paying Apple twenty billion dollars a year to be the default search engine.”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 49:39 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Calacanis: Apple will buy a search engine and expand its advertising network
“My prediction is Apple buys a search engine and they go it alone and expand their advertising network like Amazon, Uber, and other companies have.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 57:59 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Google antitrust ruling could wipe out $1T from Apple's value
“If this antitrust ruling against Google stands, that alone could be worth upwards of half a trillion to a trillion dollars, depending on what multiple you want to put on that 20.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 54:28 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 9, 2024
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Berkshire Hathaway has sold 55% of its Apple stock in 2024
“Well, so it looks like since the start of the year, they've sold 55% of their holdings in Apple”
David Friedberg Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 46:47 Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
Aug 16, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Calacanis: Apple will launch its own search engine to compete with Google
“I believe Apple's gonna launch their own search engine and compete heads up with Google, and so I think that's gonna be the very interesting thing that happens in this market.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 21:18 Break up Google, Starbucks CEO out, Kamala’s price controls, Boeing disaster, Kursk offensive
Aug 30, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Apple App Store is primary target for big tech antitrust
“I think that the prime candidate is likely to be, and I'm speaking as an individual and as a venture capitalist here, is Apple with the App Store, right?”
Reid Hoffman Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 37:13 In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Sep 10, 2024 negative
Opinion
Vance: Claiming the iPhone is designed in Cupertino is increasingly untrue
“That the idea that the iPhone is designed in Cupertino is increasingly no longer even true, right? It's something that we lie to ourselves about because the people who are doing all the manufacturing of the hardware of the iPhone are getting much better at des…”
JD Vance Sep 10, 2024 ▶ 41:26 JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024
Sep 12, 2024
Assertion Not checkable as stated
China Forced Apple To Invest $1 Billion Into Didi, Kalanick Claims
“They made Apple invest a billion dollars in Didi, and Apple doesn't invest anything in anybody.”
Travis Kalanick Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 31:57 Travis Kalanick | All-In Summit 2024
Oct 3, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Big Tech incumbents consistently win when threatened by upstarts
“And I think in, in the last 20 or 25 years, what you've seen is those companies, when their backs are against the wall, they use money, they're sharp elbowed, but the consistent thing is they've won.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 2:02:55 Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
Oct 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Apple can sustain its cash flow and buyback playbook for another decade
“So there could be another decade or so where Apple can continue to run this play with very little impact to them or to the company.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 1:30:27 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Oct 25, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Friedberg: Apple announced it is discontinuing or reducing Vision Pro production
“This week they announced their discontinuing production or reducing production on the Vision Pro.”
David Friedberg Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 1:28:29 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
Dec 13, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Raboy: Apple faces structural disadvantages in consumer AI over next five years
“There are advantages Apple has in AI. But there's some significant organizational structural disadvantages, and that's the field that people are going to be competing on for the next five years from a consumer perspective, and they're playing on a field where …”
Keith Rabois Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 54:09 Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC
Mar 1, 2025
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis: Big tech companies will buy thousands of $5M Gold Cards
“I gotta tell you, I think out of the gate, Apple, Meta, Microsoft buy, you know, one to 10,000 of these.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 1, 2025 ▶ 51:28 Epstein Files Flop, State of the Market, Autonomous Robots, Trump's Gold Card, Friedberg on Jeopardy
Apr 4, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Calacanis: Global supply chain diversification out of China is wiped out by tariffs
“These were specifically designed, Ben, to be a diversification strategy. Japan was paying their companies to build factories outside of China, and Apple was doing India, Vietnam to build AirPods and laptops, and even the iPhone being made outside of China. Tha…”
Jason Calacanis Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:15:56 DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
Apr 26, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Apple won't shift iPhone manufacturing to India within 18 months
“Yeah, they should do it, but I'm just saying that's a, it's very smart. It's not gonna get done in 18 months.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 29:26 Trump Rally or Bessent Put? Elon Back at Tesla, Google's Gemini Problem, China's Thorium Discovery
May 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Calacanis: Apple stole 90% of its product designs from Dieter Rams
“I am saying, 90% of what Apple did was steal Dieter Rams' design. I will die on that hill. 90% stolen.”
Jason Calacanis May 24, 2025 ▶ 52:05 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lafont: Apple stock would rise if it acquired OpenAI for $500B
“I actually think it would go up, not down, even if they did something like that.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 46:53 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Lafont: Apple's AirPod business revenue is triple OpenAI's total revenue
“To that point it's interesting to think that the AirPod business at Apple is three X opening eyes revenue based today.”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 49:37 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 negative
Opinion
Chamath: Apple is missing out on top AI and machine learning talent
“I have to think that Apple is not getting any of those people. So by the time you end up at Apple, It's just a different caliber of person.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 44:23 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: In-home humanoid robots are the next giant consumer market
“That seems like that's obviously the next giant consumer market is having optimists or figure in your house.”
Jason Calacanis Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 47:47 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jun 21, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Thomas Lafont claims Apple reduced iPhone share of gross profit from 90% to 40%
“Over a decade ago, 90 plus percent of their gross profit was a one-time hardware sale on the iPhone. And no one thought that they would ever be able to get away from the drug of selling that one iPhone unit, right? And cut to, you know, over a decade later, it…”
Thomas Laffont Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 56:11 IPOs and SPACs are Back, Mag 7 Showdown, Zuck on Tilt, Apple's Fumble, GENIUS Act passes Senate
Jul 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Rabois: Apple missed the AI wave but thrives through vertical integration
“The performance is absolutely miserable on the most important technology through the last 70 years, but the company is still alive and still worth trillions of dollars because it's vertically integrated.”
Keith Rabois Jul 11, 2025 ▶ 45:01 Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
Jul 19, 2025
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: AI labs without major distribution partnerships must build browsers
“And if you're not going to strike a partnership with one of those distribution channels, you will eventually need to do your own browser”
Gavin Baker Jul 19, 2025 ▶ 37:57 Trump vs Powell, Solving the Debt Crisis, The $10T AGI Prize, GENIUS Act Becomes Law
Jul 23, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Litinsky: MP Materials needs thousands of new hires for Apple and DOD
“We have 850 employees today at MP. We're gonna hire, when we include what we're building out for Apple coupled with what we're building with DOD, we're gonna need a couple thousand more people easily, not to mention the construction jobs.”
James Litinsky Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 8:28 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Jul 23, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Litinsky: MP Materials building 10x capacity facility for DoD and Apple
“So we're expanding our facility in Texas for Apple. I'll talk about that in a second, but we're then going to build a Tenex facility to Tenex our capacity with DoD as our a hundred percent offtake partner customer and business partner, because we'll be splitti…”
James Litinsky Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 3:56 Winning the AI Race Part 3: Jensen Huang, Lisa Su, James Litinsky, Chase Lochmiller
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: China will try to beat the US using commercial capitalism
“They're going to try to beat us on capitalism and then use brands like we've used brands like Apple and Google to defeat us.”
Jason Calacanis Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 30:40 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gavin Baker: Apple will have best AR glasses in 3-4 years
“I would say, I do think in fairness, I, it would shock me if they do not have the best augmented reality glasses on the market in three or four years.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:35:25 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Aug 9, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Gavin Baker: Apple's AI products are terrible from a user perspective
“I'm just shocked at their inaction and ineptitude and AI, how bad the products are from a user perspective. I mean, they're terrible.”
Gavin Baker Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:33:47 OpenAI's GPT-5 Flop, AI's Unlimited Market, China's Big Advantage, Rise in Socialism, Housing Crisis
Nov 7, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Apple will cede its AI business to Google, Chamath predicts
“Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're going to seed their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 7:24 Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
Dec 24, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Jason Calacanis says Apple's best innovation in 10 years is thin iPhone
“My biggest business loser was Apple. This company has unlimited distribution and unlimited capital, and the most impressive thing they've done in the last 10 years is a thin iPhone.”
Jason Calacanis Dec 24, 2025 ▶ 57:57 All-In x Kill Tony: A Hilarious Holiday Special
Jan 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: Big Tech will make a $50B+ AI acquisition in 2026
“For twenty-twenty-six, I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a fifty billion plus deal, and I think it could be, ah, one of the Mac seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft, or an Amaz…”
Jason Calacanis Jan 10, 2026 ▶ 53:48 All-In's 2026 Predictions
Mar 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: All consumer AI queries will eventually be free
“My base case here is that all consumer queries are going to be free. Apple's going to make them free. They're already free for Google. I think Meta is going to make them free and actually have a decent product soon, and Microsoft, same thing.”
Jason Calacanis Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 20:24 Anthropic's Generational Run, OpenAI Panics, AI Moats, Meta Loses Major Lawsuits
Apr 24, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Chamath: Steve Jobs returned zero capital to Apple shareholders as CEO
“Look at the amount of money that Steve Jobs returned to shareholders in his tenure at Apple. It's easy to count. It was zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 54:40 SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike
Jul 15, 2026
Assertion Supported
Gelsinger: Steve Jobs secretly ported four Mac OS releases to x86
“And I remember that Steve said, I've been working on that the last four releases. He had been preparing the core technologies inside of Apple For something that might happen in the future, you know, and he was already, you know, to me, I just remember, I was j…”
Pat Gelsinger Jul 15, 2026 ▶ 7:00 Former Intel CEO on What Went Wrong, What's Next + Lovable CEO on the Real Promise of Vibe Coding
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Apple filed 41-page lawsuit against OpenAI for trade secret theft
“On July 10th, Apple filed a 41 page lawsuit against OpenAI over alleged, alleged stolen trade secrets.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 37:57 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: OpenAI hired over 400 Apple employees in recent years
“During all of this, OpenAI has poached over 400 Apple employees over the last year or two.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 39:03 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 18, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Apple edge AI will put heavy downward pressure on OpenAI and Claude
“They will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just putting local models and supporting them with this memory architecture.”
Jason Calacanis Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 55:52 Can the AI Industry Regulate Itself? Stripe Wants PayPal, China Catches Up, NY Bans Datacenters
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: AI market could mirror Apple-Android split in market share and revenue
“It might end up being a situation like Apple and Android, where Android got a lot of market share, but Apple's where all the monetization was.”
David Sacks Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 57:46 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
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