The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Calacanis: Google search will grow, while OpenAI will lose market share
“I think the search franchise is going to grow, and that Google is not going to lose to ChatGPT, and I think the big loser in all this is going to be OpenAI, because they started with a hundred percent of the market, and they're only going down, and they're fac…”
Baker: Anthropic is losing marginal market share to OpenAI and Grok
“And what's wild to me is that probably on the margin, Anthropic is losing share to OpenAI, to open source, and to Grok, and they're still growing so fast.”
Emil Michael: Grok is deployed across classified and unclassified military networks
“Grok's all in. For all lawful use cases across all classified and unclassified networks”
Lockmiller: Competitors would quickly absorb compute capacity if OpenAI failed
“Imagine, imagine they did go out of business. The reason they'd go out of business is because some other model company, whether it be, you know, Anthropic or Gemini or Grok, like really blew them out of the water. But if that were to happen, the group that mas…”
Sacks divested his Grok shares upon joining the government
“I divested my Grok shares as part of joining the government back in like February or March.”
Musk: xAI uses inference compute to correct and refine Grok training data
“We're running a lot of, using a lot of inference compute and reasoning to look at all of the source data, which is really the corpus of human knowledge. And then thinking about each piece of information and then adding modern, adding what's missing and correct…”
Palihapitiya: Grok 5 and Grok 6 will not use internet data
“Grok five and for sure grok six will not use common crawl. It will not use the internet.”
Lafont: ChatGPT maintains over 80% market share against AI rivals
“It really is a dominant kind of franchise, right? It is maintaining 80% plus market share.”
Palihapitiya: Input token costs range from $56 to $0.50 per million
“A million tokens on fable is about sacks, 56 bucks. A million from soul is about 26 bucks, which is the same as cloud for eight. A million input tokens from on grok is about a dollar 50. Zucks is about a dollar 50, Elon's about a dollar, and the Chinese models…”
Calacanis: Local open-source models deliver about 80% of frontier performance for free
“I have started running Kimmy 2.5 on a Mac studio. It's not as good as Claude or Gemini or Grok, but you can probably do about 80% there for free.”
Chamath: AI decoding chip market will quickly become highly fragmented
“What we are quickly seeing is that there's going to be a highly fragmented layer of decoding chips that exist in the marketplace. Grok is one. TPU is one. Microsoft has a spin. Amazon has Inferentia. Facebook, I think, is Apparently spinning up their own silic…”
Musk: Processing all daily X posts with Grok requires 50k H100s
“Yeah, my guess is it's probably on the order of 50 k h 100, something like that.”
Chamath: Grok updates failed to achieve separation on key benchmarks
“If you look at the last big set of model updates, X of Grok, they didn't really meaningfully improve their separation from the last generation model on the big benchmarks that matter.”
Chamath: Meta is about to launch a standalone app competing with ChatGPT
“And Facebook is about to launch a competitor to ChatGPT and Grok, yeah. A standalone app.”
Sacks: Grok's main advantage is exclusive access to Twitter data
“Grok's whole competitive advantage is having exclusive access to Twitter's. Data, which is updated in real time, basically by hundreds of millions of users.”
Sacks: Grok will keep OpenAI and ChatGPT honest about content filters
“Having something like rock around will at a minimum, keep open AI honest and keep, you know, keep chat GPT honest because If it's willing to give you truthful answers about things that you compare to the chat GPT answer, then we're going to know when these lik…”
Calacanis: AI chip inference efficiency will improve 5x-10x every 12-18 months
“If you look at what Cerebrus and Grok and NVIDIA are up to, they're making inference 10 times, five times, every year, and you're the chip master here, Gavin, but they'll be five to 10 times more efficient every 12 to 18 months.”
Palihapitiya: Groq's developer waitlist tripled to nearly 10,000 in one week
“By the way, developers, by the way, on Grok just this past week, In the queue, the waitlist tripled. Now there's almost 10,000 developers.”
Musk: X to launch AI-curated Following tab powered by Grok
“Now something we're going to be adding is the ability to have a curated following tab, because the problem is, like, if you follow some people and they're maybe a little more prolific than you're, you know, you follow someone and some people are much more, you…”