why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Starbucks sales will decline as GLP-1 drug adoption grows
“And I think if you start to graph the adoption of GLP ones pervasively in America to the drop in same store sales, I think as GLP one adoption goes up, same store sales will continue to go down.”
Opinion
Chamath believes Starbucks should be valued at $20 billion
“Starbucks should be probably a twenty billion dollar asset.”
Opinion
Chamath: Starbucks lacks pricing power because it is not a premium brand
“The problem is they are not a premium brand, and the difference is Hermes, as an example, is a premium brand. They can charge whatever they want under all weather conditions. They have pricing power, so if their inputs go up, they can make sure they maintain m…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Automation will eventually eliminate cashiers, cooks, and baristas
“So the cashiers will be gone. The cooks will be gone. And eventually the baristas will be gone and it'll just be a couple of people.”
What-if
Chamath: Ex-Starbucks CEO wouldn't be fired if he cut initial forecasts
“I just think that the CEO would not have gotten fired had he just moved the forecast down by 20% when he came in as CEO.”
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Brian Niccol will simplify Starbucks' menu within his first year
“I think one of the first things you're going to see from nickel within the first year at Starbucks is a reduction in the complexity of the menu.”
Prediction Held up
Chamath: Incoming CEO Brian Niccol will lower Starbucks' financial guidance
“I expect that Brian Nickel, if he is smart, will look at this forecast and shred it to give himself time.”