Jan 6, 2024 · 1h 27m · allin
E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more
Jason Calacanis · 25m spoken David Sacks · 19m spoken David Friedberg · 16m spoken Chamath Palihapitiya · 16m spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In Episode 160 of the All-In Podcast, hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sachs deliver their comprehensive annual predictions for 2024 across politics, macroeconomics, business, AI technology, and media.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.4% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.2 Guest teaching 2.8 Guest disagreement 2.9 The hosts pushing back 2.7
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:04 Chamath rejects Jason's AI content licensing premise
Chamath forcefully pushes back against Jason's idea of a 50% content licensing cost for AI models, stating it would guarantee the death of the startup ecosystem and entrench big tech dominance.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 1:06:24 Sacks and Friedberg reject Jason's claim of 2023 consumer austerityWhen Jason claims consumer austerity took place in 2023, Sacks and Friedberg immediately call him out, pointing to $2 trillion added to national debt and record-high consumer credit card levels.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:03:39 Friedberg and Chamath explain the structural margin collapse in SaaSFriedberg and Chamath articulate how AI co-pilots and custom low-code tools multiply engineering output, eroding historical 80-90% software gross margins down to standard 30-40% corporate margins.
The host holds their own ▶ 42:15 Chamath demonstrates AI infrastructure expertise on latency and token economicsChamath cites specific operational parameters—30 to 50 second API latency and prohibitive token pricing per million—to demonstrate why closed AI proprietary models like OpenAI face valuation contractions.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Show Banter: Friedberg's Radiation Suits and Prepping | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | The hosts engage in playful pre-show banter teasing Friedberg about his purchase of nuclear radiation suits for his family and dogs. The dynamic is lighthearted comedic ribbing without intense debate. | |
| Podcast Introduction and Host Catch-Up | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Sacks lays out a detailed geopolitical rationale for predicting Putin as 2024's political winner, citing BRICS expansion and Ukraine stalemate dynamics. Friedberg asks about Argentina's rejection of BRICS, prompting Sacks to elaborate on global South proxy dynamics. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Biggest Political Loser | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Sacks and Friedberg analyze Ukraine's severe demographic decline and loss of Western funding to argue it will be the year's biggest political loser. Sacks backs up his claim with figures on casualties, emigration, and European economic strain. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Biggest Business Winner | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Jason predicts content owners will win via AI training data lawsuits and licensing deals, but Chamath strongly pushes back, arguing 50% revenue splits would destroy startup margins. The panel vigorously debates token unit economics and copyright revenue models. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Biggest Business Loser | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Friedberg argues vertical SaaS will get hit as AI custom app development becomes trivial, while Sacks analyzes German automotive and energy headwinds. Chamath systematically presents four macro evidence points for why pro sports valuations have peaked. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Biggest Business Deal of the Year | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Sacks predicts the Fed will have to extend or replace the Bank Term Funding Program to keep regional banks liquid amidst commercial real estate stress. The discussion proceeds collaboratively as each host shares transaction and market predictions. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Most Contrarian Belief | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Chamath predicts OpenAI's enterprise valuation will fall, backing his claim with technical points on unusable API latency and prohibitive token costs. Friedberg adds a contrarian warning about tactical nuclear risk and NATO friction with Turkey. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Best Performing Asset | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | Friedberg pitches the Uranium ETF (URA) citing China's nuclear reactor expansion and supply deficits, while Chamath proposes a long public tech / short private late-stage SaaS spread trade. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Worst Performing Asset | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | Friedberg and Chamath break down why 80-90% SaaS gross margins will compress toward traditional 30-40% margins as internal AI coding tools democratize software development. Friedberg shares a direct example of building an in-house tool to replace a $500k/year software contract. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Most Anticipated Trend | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | Chamath anticipates Bitcoin crossing the chasm into mainstream finance via ETF approvals, while Friedberg highlights predictive AI models in biopharma. Sacks and Friedberg briefly challenge Jason's assertion that consumer austerity occurred in 2023. | |
| 2024 Predictions: Most Anticipated Media | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | After Jason plays a joke track, Sacks discusses optioning 'The Founders' with Drake's production company. Friedberg predicts AI-generated personalized newscasters, leading to a friendly debate with Chamath on whether custom AI news creates echo chambers or objective reporting. | |
| Jason's AI Sacks Prank | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | The panel reflects on their emotional outlook for 2024, ranging from Jason's enthusiasm to Chamath's pensive caution. Sacks and Friedberg evaluate the impending US budget cut sequester and debt load dynamics. |
Statements from this episode (42)
Sacks predicts Vladimir Putin will be 2024's biggest political winner
“My prediction for biggest political winner in twenty-twenty-four is Vladimir Putin.”
David Friedberg predicts independent third party will win politically in 2024
“I'm gonna go with independent third party in the U.S.”
Chamath predicts 2024 election will begin breaking down two-party system
“I think this election starts the breakdown of the two-party system.”
Jason Calacanis predicts a dark horse candidate could beat Trump and Biden
“I think we're going to actually see some dark horse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody Wanted.”
Sacks notes California budget swung from $76B surplus to $68B deficit
“Because specifically, California went from having a seventy-six billion dollar surplus in twenty-twenty-two to a sixty-eight billion dollar deficit now.”
Chamath: The Koch network will be 2024's biggest political loser
“The Cokes. I think on a dollar basis, they are the largest Spender and Republican politics, they have been, and they have been the most consistent negative indicator of value.”
Friedberg: Ukraine will be 2024's biggest political loser
“Well, Saxl like this one, but I think Ukraine might be the biggest loser this year as attention shifts to the brewing conflict in the Middle East.”
Calacanis: Benjamin Netanyahu will be 2024's biggest political loser
“And I went with Netanyahu here. I think, and again, this is just my assessment. This isn't what I want to occur in the world, obviously. But every major Israeli poll is just suggesting that they want him out, and they put the odds, Vox puts the odds of his ous…”
Friedberg: Commodities businesses will see a killer 2024
“Commodities businesses are going to see a killer 20, 24.”
Chamath: Bootstrapped profitable startups will be 2024's biggest business winner
“I think the biggest business winner in 20, 24 is going to be the Bootstrapped startup and or the profitable startup, but the best will probably be the bootstrapped profitable startup.”
Sacks: Anduril will be 2024's biggest business winner with Roadrunner
“I'm predicting Andrel for its Roadrunner product, which it announced last year.”
Calacanis: Training data owners will be 2024's biggest business winners
“I am gonna go with, for my biggest winner in twenty-twenty-four, training data owners like the New York Times, Reddit, X, Twitter, YouTube, et cetera.”
Calacanis: OpenAI will pay a nine-figure settlement to New York Times
“I think it's going to be a nine figure settlement for previous stuff, and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times in their training data.”
Calacanis: Apple will give 50% of AI language model revenue to data licensors
“I predict Apple will do this, right? They'll do a language model where they say, 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries or subscriptions to this goes to the people we built it off of or the licensees.”
Friedberg: Vertical SaaS companies will get smacked in 2024
“Vertical SaaS companies, I think are going to get smacked this year.”
Sachs: German economy will be 2024's biggest business loser
“My prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is, is actually the German economy.”
Chamath: 2024 will mark the peak for professional sports valuations
“I am going to say that 24 is the peak in terms of valuations of professional sports.”
Calacanis: Smartphone makers like Apple face slowdown as upgrade cycles lengthen
“Smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown. Consumers obviously love their phones and use them constantly, but people are skipping a generation of phones, and if you look at Apple's revenue, they're having a very hard time getting people to upgrade, …”
Sachs: Fed will extend or replace Bank Term Funding Program in 2024
“I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program. So I think the feds can have to do something to either replace the program, extend the program.”
Chamath: Starlink will go public in 2024
“I'm gonna go with the same thing. I think I was just off by your Starlink will go public.”
Calacanis: TikTok or ByteDance will go public or spin out in 2024
“I'm gonna say this year that I think TikTok goes public, and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board. So I'm going to go with by dance taking, going public or tick tock spinning out and going public.”
Friedberg: Major IP owners like Disney will license content to AI in 2024
“Rights holder is getting licensing deals for generative AI, or there's gonna be a couple of blockbuster deals this year. Where you'll see like Disney license out a chunk of their library.”
Palihapitiya: OpenAI's enterprise value will fall in 2024
“I think the enterprise value of open AI goes down.”
Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024
“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kick…”
Sacks: U.S. soft landing will be bumpier in 2024 than expected
“So my prediction for this year is that the soft landing gets very bumpy. I think that over the last two months of the year, I think markets got super optimistic. They started pricing in big fed rate cuts, you know, let's call it one and a half percent. So we h…”
Calacanis: Apple will make huge gains in generative AI in 2024
“I think I'm going to go with Apple as my contrarian belief. I think Apple is going to become a player in AI. The end of the year, maybe they reboot Siri, but they're going to figure something out. And I think they're not going to. Remain on the sidelines when …”
Friedberg predicts Global X Uranium ETF (URA) will be a top performer
“Oh, I took the uranium ETF. Easy money. Whether it plays out in the next 12 months or over time, I'm not sure. It's just an inevitability.”
Chamath predicts public tech will outperform late-stage private software in 2024
“I'm going to take the public software index, tech stock index, and my short is going to be the private tech software companies, the late stage, mostly SaaS companies, and I think we've all talked about the reasons why, but I think that the terminal valuations …”
Sachs predicts energy stocks could be top performers in 2024
“My guess here, just a guess, is energy stocks energy prices could be among the top performers of twenty-twenty-four, just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating.”
Calacanis predicts consumer comfort services like DoorDash and Uber will thrive in 2024
“I'm going to go with consumer comfort services. I think as austerity measures and this, whether we have a soft landing or a recession, it's clear the consumers have spent all their money. So they're going to go for small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber, s…”
Sacks predicts S&P 493 will outperform the Magnificent Seven in 2024
“I would bet against the magnificent seven just because I believe that what goes up must come down, and the hotter they are, the harder they fall. I'm not saying that the magnificent seven are actually going to go down. I'm just saying that the S&P four 93 Are …”
Calacanis predicts LLM startup valuations will fall 50% to 80% in 2024
“My worst performing asset in 2024 is LLM startups. I believe they've been massively overvalued, and I believe open source is making an incredible run at them, and I think they're going to hit parity, and there's too many players... I think they're all going to…”
Friedberg's firm built in-house tool replacing $5,000 per seat SaaS vendor
“There's a vertical software provider. We're paying five grand per seat per year right now. And we look at that and we're like, okay, it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical. Let's just go recreate that and did it very quickly, very lo…”
Friedberg argues high-margin SaaS was a temporary era before AI software generation
“The SaaS business model Is really a temporary phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the internet and the development of AI and low cost, low code tools for developing software.”
Sachs: US added $2 trillion to debt, reaching $34 trillion total
“We added like two trillion to the debt. The debt's now 34 trillion.”
Friedberg: AI models will drive discovery of novel drugs and materials in 2024
“So this year, I'm really excited based on the progress we've seen in 20, 23, Of predictive models, AI driven discovery of novel molecules, materials, and methods of production in biopharma, in chemical engineering, lots of new materials and new drugs that are …”
Chamath: Bitcoin ETFs are days away and Bitcoin will reach mainstream adoption in 2024
“We are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved And so this is the moment for Bitcoin to use that old term, cross the chasm, and really see mainstream adoption, where our parents and our grandparents understand what it is, can buy it, and then d…”
Sacks: Dream Crew partnered to adapt 'The Founders' into TV series
“I optioned this book along with Jack Selby, who's another PayPal mafia alum who has a film company. And so we've optioned this and we have just made a deal with Drake's company called Dream Crew to turn this into some sort of television series.”
Friedberg: Personalized generative AI news products will launch in 2024
“I do think it's going to happen in 20, 24, where a series of products will come out that start to look like this and it'll get”
Friedberg: AI news customization will deepen personal echo chambers
“I think what will happen is people will bias the delivery to what they want to hear. And you'll end up having something that's going to become more of an echo chamber for you.”
Friedberg: High debt combined with low growth drives international conflict
“You can't keep your societal fabric together. If you have a lot of debt and you can't grow your economy, those are two, that's a simple fact. And so that leads naturally to finding points of conflict with other nations and other places, because, you know, you …”