Prediction Didn’t hold up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 1/5

Tim Urban plans to launch a new podcast in 2023

Tim Urban · Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Aug 14, 2023 · at 12:13

Tim Urban, author and creator of Wait But Why, discusses upcoming projects while sharing his approach to independent content creation.

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“I am starting a podcast later you know, this year probably”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Tim Urban

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: Elon Musk will make Twitter successful within five years
“If, again, you put me in a time machine five years from now, my gut is I come out and it, yes, the answer is yes. Just because this guy does things well and sometimes it takes a while, right? And there's going to be a lot of experimentation. It's going to be a…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:12:04 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI could automate his writing job within two years
“12 months ago I had any inkling that AI might steal my job within, like two years. Didn't, I would have guessed, like, 20. So that's, I mean, and that's one of a hundred different things that I've been shocked about with AI in the last few months like everyone…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:11:09 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Urban ignored crypto because it lacked proven future significance
“People wanted me to write about crypto, and I was kind of just like, ah, I don't know. This is, it's like this hasn't proven yet to be a huge part of the future, and if not, then it just seems so boring to write about.”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 20:10 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Urban: A large email list reduces the need for posting consistency
“A big email list makes it less important to have consistency. I still think it's better than not. I think that you know, it's not ideal the way I do things, but I'm very inconsistent now. I'll disappear for a while, and then I'll come out with something big, a…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 42:38 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Urban: New creators should master one core medium before expanding
“I don't think that, that, that a new creator needs to be worrying about, oh, I only doing like writing and drawing right now. I need to also be doing TikTok. So we need to start doing video to make sure we have stuff on TikTok. I don't think I think they shoul…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 44:35 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Urban: AI will solve climate and lifespan challenges by the 2050s
“I think that AI, if things go well, I think we're going to have so many answers. In the near future. I think we're going to solve so many problems that seem really hard to us right now. I think 20, you know, these problems won't be a match for 20 fifties human…”
Tim Urban Aug 14, 2023 ▶ 1:06:38 Tim Urban: How "Wait But Why" Grew to 600k Readers; AI's Revolutionary Impact on Media | E1048 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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