The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
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Next up (338)
5 days left 2026-09-18
6 days left 2026-09-19
13 days left 2026-09-26
38 days left 2026-10-21
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53 days left 2026-11-05
Lemkin: Tesla is months away from allowing owners to profit off robotaxis
“As soon as this really works, and maybe it's only single digit months away, he has millions of people who could be paid more than their lease price to allow the car into the fleet. And when he said this a decade ago, it sounded effing insane. He said that your…”
53 days left 2026-11-05
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96 days left 2026-12-18
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109 days left 2026-12-31
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109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, and Anthropic will IPO in 2026
“I think we see four IPOs backloaded next year. SpaceX goes out first. Canva comes out of nowhere second. Databricks does it in the back half of the year because it's just time. Anthropic does it at the end of the year. OpenAI probably should have gone first, b…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: Custom chip competition will not threaten Nvidia's dominance in 2026
“You're a fool to invest against Nvidia for 2026. And I think you are arguably a fool to invest into Amazon in 20, 26 for a simple reason. Just a simple, I didn't say 20, 27 or 20, 28. It is not enough time for all this competition to come online. It is not eno…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
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109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: Anthropic and Databricks will IPO in late 2026
“I think Anthropic and Databricks have an incentive to IPO, as best I understand it. They have an incentive. As Rory said, times are great. And so I think it'll be the, unless, unless, unless the market crashes for some reason, I think they're going to do it wh…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Osika: Lovable will act as a full-stack AI co-founder by 2026
“I mean, it's your perfect co-founder that you go to with your idea from the idea stage, but also all the way up to growing your business once you have customers and taking care of like what Elena is doing, optimizing the product for growth, optimizing the prod…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will not surpass an $800B valuation by late 2026
“Under. I'll tell you what I'm doing mentally. I'm just, I mean, there's no logic. I'm just looking at the step ups in the rounds as you'd expect are getting smaller, right? You know, you get two or five X and then you have, you go from 80 to one 50, which is a…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Bookman: Mega-cap private tech companies will go public around 2026
“So, look, I think that can continue, but no, I don't see how these companies don't go public. I'm sorry, they've raised a ton of money At some point, people need liquidity, and that's gonna come, so I don't know whether it's in 25, 26, or 27. If I'm guessing, …”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: Slack will achieve Notion-like ARPU growth from AI in 2026
“I suspect as the year goes on, we're gonna see the same thing at Slack, because most folks haven't used it, we're on it. The AI version of Slack for certain use cases is so much better. I don't love that they're not just charging another four bucks a month, bu…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year
“I mean, statistically, more than 50%, yes, because in a world where this doesn't get solved for four or five months, there's so many other problems that our heads are gonna hurt, right? So you have to say, if a problem, in a world where it does get solved, the…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
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109 days left 2026-12-31
Stebbings: Most knowledge workers will use 24/7 background AI inference by 2026
“I think one thing that we're going to see in 2026 that no one's talking about is 24 seven inference that everyone is going to have inference running all the time, not just on input into chat GPT, but consistently for the majority of people, especially in knowl…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
110 days left 2027-01-01
124 days left 2027-01-15
Riparbelli: AI video will be indistinguishable from real video within years
“You could make, you know, a video of you talking about something in a couple of years, no one will be able to tell if it's actually real or not, but it won't really matter that much. What matters is that you made it right and that whatever you say in that vide…”
166 days left 2027-02-26
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O'Driscoll: Tech giants won't cut AI spending in 2026, keeping Nvidia sold out
“No one's going to blink on their investments for twenty-twenty-six. You actually know the next four quarters of NVIDIA announcement. You know the next four quarters of every one of the infrastructure, which is every single thing we can make. If you can count t…”
230 days left 2027-05-01
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237 days left 2027-05-08
O'Driscoll: AI markets will consolidate into 3-4 dominant players
“I think that what a successful set of products at AI starts to gel over the next couple of years, and the people who are in the lead at that point in time get a similar ten-year run to, you know, the ten-year runs you and I both benefited from in SaaS, Jason, …”
238 days left 2027-05-09
Stebbings: ButcherBox will reach $1B revenue and $3B-$4B EV in 3-4 years
“I had the founder of ButcherBox on the show recently, and ButcherBox does six hundred million in revenue, very high quality revenue, the leading brand and category in the space. If you project out to a three, four years time, they'll be at a billion, enterpris…”
242 days left 2027-05-13
243 days left 2027-05-14
261 days left 2027-06-01
264 days left 2027-06-04
O'Driscoll: Current frontier AI models will be 5x-10x cheaper in a year
“The frontier models aren't getting cheaper. I want to be clear on that. They're getting actually slightly more expensive, but the model that is frontier today will in a year be five to 10 X cheaper because it won't be the frontier model anymore.”
282 days left 2027-06-22
Arora: Palo Alto Networks exclusively hires via hackathons to transform workforce
“We've been hiring people only through hackathons now, right? And we see natural attrition of two percent, give or take a month, and we just replace them with people who actually are AI savvy people who are from hackathons. Give me 12 months, I'll have sort of …”
290 days left 2027-06-30
Lemkin: OpenAI's IPO will be delayed until mid-2027 as Altman secures alternative financing
“I think that's a good idea. I think Sam will come up with so much alternative financing. It'll slip into mid 27, but I think that's the straw man today would be my guess. Like that's the plan, but there'll be so much, so many other sources of maybe the governm…”
292 days left 2027-07-02
342 days left 2027-08-21
364 days left 2027-09-12
Bendov: AI agents will automate manual CRM work within two years
“Absolutely. Like, I mean, who wants to fill in forms or flip the web pages? This is like people punching cards in the seventies. There's no doubt in a couple of years at most, and I used to say like in 10 years, right? Now I say like in one to two years, nobod…”
384 days left 2027-10-02
385 days left 2027-10-03
Conrad expects Rippling to be a public company by 2027
“Five years from now? I would I would hope so. I don't, you know, and to like, just to be clear for you know, there's like no plans on any, you know, people are going to be like suddenly like timing our IPO and that's not there. It's not something that we spent…”
402 days left 2027-10-20
412 days left 2027-10-30
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will reach a $1 trillion valuation in two years
“On the current trajectory, maybe all I can answer is on the current trajectory and without the euphoria Jason mentioned, it's probably two years because, you know, you do get some attenuation of growth at scale and, you know, at the current thing that, I mean,…”
426 days left 2027-11-13
O'Driscoll: Palantir and AI CapEx Will Face a Major Correction Within Two Years
“I think, Michael, it's very hard to imagine a company trading north of a 110, 120 times revenues like Palantir, growing at 50 or 60% last quarter. Great. Amazing quarter. Kicking off cash. It's very hard not to imagine the next two years that doesn't have a si…”
428 days left 2027-11-15
444 days left 2027-12-01
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Lemkin: Open Evidence will raise at $30B-$40B valuation next year
“Open Evidence will probably do a round at 30 or 40 next year. I'm actually going to suggest that Thrive is very smart. And they've probably done the math and this is the right insertion point for them. And they believe in it. And someone else is going to do it…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
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Socher: Expects to win $1,000 bet that AGI won't arrive by 2027
“We did this bet and in the bet he has to win. I think it ends in 20, 27. So three things have to be true. We have to have a personal robot that cleans the whole house the way my cleaning team does. And it needs to be purchasable, like for reasonable amounts of…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
494 days left 2028-01-20
Liquid Death aims to become a multi-billion dollar beverage-entertainment hybrid
“I like to think that we're, you know, Not that far off from what you see in a brand like Monster or Red Bull, you know, just a, you know, much bigger brand known for sort of blurring the lines between being an entertainment company and a beverage brand. Like, …”
500 days left 2028-01-26
503 days left 2028-01-29
O'Driscoll: AI CapEx spend won't pull back in the next 12-24 months
“So I think it's highly unlikely that you know, this is not going to be the year when people get terrified and say, I'm not going to do it. At some point, I think they will, because I think we probably are over-investing at some level, but right now, people are…”
506 days left 2028-02-01
524 days left 2028-02-19
O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spending will surge for two years before retrenchment
“My gut would be people will overbet, overinvest, and you will have a retrenchment period, you know, two plus years from now, but I think right now you're just looking at two years where, you know, just as the hyperscaler said two years ago, we're going to do t…”
527 days left 2028-02-22
Systrom: San Francisco will rebound as top startup center within five years
“But like, mark my words, look back five years from now, and I, you're even seeing the glimmers of it now. Just all these companies getting started. If you look at history, history, what is it? It's like it never repeats perfectly, but it rhymes. And there's no…”
531 days left 2028-02-26
Lemkin: AI agents will stop requiring custom setup within two years
“Every agent, here's the problem today, and this will change in the next two years. It is not true today. Every agent is essentially custom, ok? Every agent needs to be trained. Every agent needs to be onboarded. If you want it to be great, ok? Every agent need…”
557 days left 2028-03-23
570 days left 2028-04-05
576 days left 2028-04-11
Reyna: OpenAI, Google, and ElevenLabs will buy new foundational model startups
“OpenAI and Anthropic will end up, and Google will end up buying, and 11 Labs will end up buying, like, all of the new foundational model companies that will be popping up and creating research and paying just, like, a few billion here, a few billion there, and…”
577 days left 2028-04-12
612 days left 2028-05-17
Mostaque: AI Will Build Software Automatically, Eliminating Human Coders
“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”
612 days left 2028-05-17
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
622 days left 2028-05-27
626 days left 2028-05-31
Allemann: On Running will expand into full-body apparel and tennis by 2028
“On in five years will be a global sports brand that still very much resonates with our core community, with runners, but also has built a second sport called tennis, and is happening for you on the full body. So not only shoes, but very much also apparel, beca…”
628 days left 2028-06-02
629 days left 2028-06-03
646 days left 2028-06-20
Petersen: Flexport will IPO in a couple of years after hitting a few hundred million EBIT
“I'd like to be a nicely profitable, making a few hundred million of EBIT and then we'll go public. So it could happen in a couple of years. It should, like the way that things are going right now, we should be able to get there.”
648 days left 2028-06-22
669 days left 2028-07-13
677 days left 2028-07-21
679 days left 2028-07-23
691 days left 2028-08-04
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729 days left 2028-09-11
Velez: Nubank will expand beyond Latin America and fintech by 2028
“We would have Become the leading financial institution in Latin America, especially in these three markets. Clearly, we made that, we kind of checked that box. We've gone beyond Latin America. Not sure exactly where, but we've gone beyond in terms of internati…”
733 days left 2028-09-15
747 days left 2028-09-29
763 days left 2028-10-15
Phin Barnes: Most Top Venture Outcomes Next Decade Will Have Diverse Founders
“For me, when I think about the next 10 years and the five to seven massive venture outcomes, right, so these are the Facebooks, the Ubers, the Airbnbs of the venture industry, my belief is that of those five to seven, somewhere between four and seven of them a…”
767 days left 2028-10-19
778 days left 2028-10-30
794 days left 2028-11-15
Traynor: Consumption pricing will replace per-seat SaaS within five years
“I think his point about like consumption pricing outpacing, or like, you know, ultimately taking the place of seed pricing, I think is going to be true. I think a lot of work is going to get handed over to LLMs over the next Five years.”
798 days left 2028-11-19
824 days left 2028-12-15
831 days left 2028-12-22
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853 days left 2029-01-13
860 days left 2029-01-20
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883 days left 2029-02-12
887 days left 2029-02-16
Brenner: Trade Republic will hit €1B revenue and go public within 5 years
“TraderPublic is the complete financial partner to millions of Europeans. It has more than ten million customers, a hundred billion in assets, and a billion or more in revenues. It's publicly traded, and it's not only savings platform, but also the banking part…”
888 days left 2029-02-17
940 days left 2029-04-10
Kevin Ryan: VCs will deploy existing dry powder over five years
“There's another characteristic in our business is there's actually a lot of VC money. You know, there's tons of cash sitting on the sidelines. That money is not going to be given back. That money is going to be spent. We're only debating whether people are goi…”
959 days left 2029-04-29
961 days left 2029-05-01
982 days left 2029-05-22
Levie: AI services and implementation spending will be massive over next five years
“So, so I think I would take the bet on, on AI services for the next five years, unquestionably. The amount of dollars that will go into the change management of systems, the implemented, the implementation of the technology is, is going to continue to be massi…”
984 days left 2029-05-24
Emad Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
995 days left 2029-06-04
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not cause mass white-collar unemployment in 3 years
“And we've grown to accept that, that, you know, we're all here in the Valley with a plan. To automate white collar work such that there's going to be mass unemployment, according to these folks who are totally wrong, in my opinion, in three years, and all the …”
996 days left 2029-06-05
Srinivas: OpenAI and Anthropic will not get acquired
“I think with OpenAI and Anthropic, the value of the value of those companies is not in the models they have. That is a very first-order approximation. I think the second-order approximation is it's in the machine that's building the machine. That specific grou…”
1003 days left 2029-06-12
1004 days left 2029-06-13
1013 days left 2029-06-22
Arora: Companies will cut G&A headcount by half within three years
“My rule of thumb is that in the next three years, we'll probably have half the people in GNA type activities in companies. Things like marketing, things like finance, things like HR, because there's a lot of process management there, and a lot of process manag…”
1015 days left 2029-06-24
Luan: Open-source AI will lag closed models over the next five years
“And I think in the next five years, open will always lag closed. And because open will always lag closed, because open just has fewer resources behind them and fewer incentives for people to go to go make things to be open as these things become more and more …”
1032 days left 2029-07-11
1036 days left 2029-07-15
Subotovsky: Next-gen startups will disrupt legacy email, CRM, and calendar incumbents
“Email, calendar, CRM, marketing automation, those haven't changed significantly in decades. So I believe that in the next 10 years, we're gonna see a lot of the leading companies in those categories disrupted by new generations of companies that are rebuilding…”
1038 days left 2029-07-17
Lemkin: 100% of S&P 500 companies with cash will buy Bitcoin
“I think a hundred percent of S&P companies are going to buy Bitcoin over the next 48 months. A hundred percent. I think it's going to become part of the standard treasury function in the CFO's office that has cash. It's going to be part of cash management and …”
1039 days left 2029-07-18
1040 days left 2029-07-19
Adams: LLM market will mirror cloud infrastructure competition
“There's still a huge amount of competition there, and I think exactly the same will happen with LLMs. They'll be innovating, you know, Google will add a feature, OpenAI will add a feature, some other startup that we don't even know about yet will add a feature…”
1041 days left 2029-07-20
1054 days left 2029-08-02
Angelopoulos: US Likely to Restrict Chinese Open AI Models Within Three Years
“Yeah, my guess my guess would be that we will. I, I'm not saying I support it, but I think that it is likely where the world is headed. If I had to like place a bet, it would be there, but I think it's very uncertain at the moment.”
1081 days left 2029-08-29
1106 days left 2029-09-23
Gurski: Five or more $10B+ consumer subscription companies will exist by 2029
“I think we will have them because this business model is growing, and you might just check numbers of Apple, and you may see that Apple got from consumer subscription in 2017 and five billion, and it's projected that we'll get maybe one hundred billion or so n…”
1115 days left 2029-10-02
Taylor: Conversational AI will replace web and app clicks within five years
“And as a consequence, you know, I think that, you know, if you fast forward four or five years, when you're interacting with any of the consumer brands, you work with your insurance company, your phone company a car rental company, you will probably be having …”
1129 days left 2029-10-16
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1206 days left 2030-01-01
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1215 days left 2030-01-10
Stebbings: Consumers won't pay extra for newer AI models in five years
“I don't, I tweeted this yesterday actually because of this, sorry but I don't think in the future we will pay more for access to newer models. I think that is just a stage of the development cycle that we're in. In five years time we won't pay more for a bette…”
1222 days left 2030-01-17
1232 days left 2030-01-27
1260 days left 2030-02-24
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1267 days left 2030-03-03
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1295 days left 2030-03-31
1337 days left 2030-05-12
Akhund: Mercury will employ more software engineers in five years despite AI
“I think we'll have more. Like, I think the maybe I'm contrarian about it a little bit, but to me, if my engineers get more productive, I'm gonna come up with more things to do. Like, I'm gonna have, like, so much stuff that I want to do.”
1337 days left 2030-05-12
1341 days left 2030-05-16
Yamashita: Figma engineering headcount won't scale proportionally with product expansion
“I don't think we'll have fewer engineers than we have today, but you know, I think we'll be able to do more than we're able to today. You know, as we expand more products, I don't, expect the number of engineers, for example, to grow in proportion.”
1347 days left 2030-05-22
1354 days left 2030-05-29
O'Driscoll: OpenAI's hardware effort will fizzle within three to five years
“And then my predict, my guess is statistically the likely outcome just based on the priors of the other companies in the space is three, five years later, it turns into a fizzle. It was, it wasn't product. It didn't pan out”
1355 days left 2030-05-30
1365 days left 2030-06-09
1376 days left 2030-06-20
Petersen: Flexport headcount will stay flat as AI replaces manual operations
“It might be about the same. We're hiring a lot of salespeople and we're expanding a lot in new markets, but I think you're going to see like a shift from people that today do operations, kind of manual work that I was describing earlier into, okay, you've got …”
1379 days left 2030-06-23
1404 days left 2030-07-18
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Fanton: Total Engineering Headcount Will Decline Due To AI Automation
“So I think everybody, everything should move in that direction. So there should be less of the folks that are just doing mundane things and hopefully creativity together with it works more. But if it was something repetitive, it will go away, right? So in the …”
1421 days left 2030-08-04
1429 days left 2030-08-12
Bannister: Weak VC returns in seven years will force market discipline
“What's going to happen is there's going to be a reckoning, and there always is one, market will work itself out, where people look at their returns seven, eight years from now, and they're not going to be great. That will create some discipline in the market.”
1431 days left 2030-08-14
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1438 days left 2030-08-21
1453 days left 2030-09-05
Alex Schultz: Smartphones won't disappear because AI wearables need compute pucks
“I would be surprised if phones go away, because you're not going to put huge batteries into glasses or AirPods or a pendant or a brooch. And you're not going to do all the compute in something with a small battery, so you're going to want to have a lightweight…”
1463 days left 2030-09-15
Tech companies will employ more software engineers in five years, not fewer
“I think more. And the reason is that engineering is such an elastic role, right? Where if we could build a hundred times more software or say we make engineers 10 times more efficient, We would probably build a hundred times more software, right? And so far as…”
1467 days left 2030-09-19
1477 days left 2030-09-29
1477 days left 2030-09-29
1477 days left 2030-09-29
Ross: NVIDIA will retain 50%+ revenue share with 10% chip volume
“My prediction is that in five years, NVIDIA will still have over 50% of the revenue. However, they will have a minority of the chips sold. They might have, you know, minority share. They might have 51% of the revenue, and they might have 10% of the chips sold.”
1491 days left 2030-10-13
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1529 days left 2030-11-20
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Carney: EV sales will exceed 50% in advanced economies by 2030
“Three, four years ago, about four percent of new auto sales were EVs. This year it's looking like it's going to be closer to 20% worldwide. That is, those are huge, huge numbers. And in most advanced economies, it's likely to be more one and two by the end of …”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
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1620 days left 2031-02-19
O'Driscoll: SaaS companies ignoring AI will see multiples fall to 4x-5x
“If you don't get on top of this soon, That 10 X revenues is going to go on a five and four and where the other seven percent growth was are. Fast forward five years, there's really only one or two stories. They get on top of this, they get a third market share…”
1622 days left 2031-02-21
1622 days left 2031-02-21
1657 days left 2031-03-28
Raanan: Within five years, a startup will make Wiz's growth look slow
“I'm, Confident that five years from now, I, I'll be able to show you, I'll be able to demonstrate another team that, you know, showing that actually wheeze was a slog and they can move much faster and they've done whatever it is.”
1667 days left 2031-04-07
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1694 days left 2031-05-04
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Tobi Lütke: Context engineering will become a standard corporate role
“There's something about this context engineering, which I had a hand in popularizing term of I think that will become more recognizably a, like a role in companies that will potentially subsume a bunch of other more specialized roles right now.”
1722 days left 2031-06-01
1722 days left 2031-06-01
OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years
“I could definitely see one of them being a 10 trillion dollar company maybe even significantly higher. It feels Like the opportunity associated with being the frontier model is so large that it will just like eat up so much of the other demand within the econo…”
1722 days left 2031-06-01
Foody: NVIDIA will lose its monopoly in five years but remain most valuable
“And so I would guess that in five years, it doesn't feel like Nvidia has quite the same monopoly, but that's okay, because even if they only have 30 or 40% market share in the largest market in the world by far, that is the world's most valuable company.”
1725 days left 2031-06-04
1734 days left 2031-06-13
Grinberg: Engineers won't manually write documentation or release notes in five years
“Five years from now, it's going to be like, oh my God, I cannot imagine, cannot believe that these people that get paid so much money spent hours of their time doing this. I think that's something that, you know, we definitely won't do.”
1739 days left 2031-06-18
O'Driscoll: AI frontier market will consolidate into 2-3 US players
“Fast forward five years, you know, unless the U.S. Is ludicrously obnoxious in its sovereignty acts, it should be a small oligopoly like Cloud of two to three players in the U.S. With some kind of affiliations in Europe, and that is the likely structure of the…”
1755 days left 2031-07-04
1760 days left 2031-07-09
O'Driscoll: AI Will Not Replace 50% of White-Collar Jobs in 5 Years
“I mean, look, in five years' time, if Dario is correct, and 50% of white-collar jobs have been replaced by AI, which I don't believe for a second, Then you damn right. There's going to be political. Political controversy. And if you think five percent is going…”
1762 days left 2031-07-11
1769 days left 2031-07-18
1802 days left 2031-08-20
Lemkin: >51% chance OpenRouter drives 20-30% of Stripe's revenue in 5 years
“I think it'll be like the scale acquisition. It will be the start of something that gets bigger, whether this brand exists or whether even this product exists five years. I don't even think this product will exist in five years, but I think it will be, I think…”
1829 days left 2031-09-16
Salur: 10-minute grocery delivery will exist wherever pizza delivery exists by 2031
“But in the long run, let me tell you this, Harry. The long run, if there's pizza delivery in any small town, there'll be a service like Getir, whether Getir will be there or something similar, will be there. Next five to 10 years, everywhere there's pizza deli…”
1829 days left 2031-09-16
1829 days left 2031-09-16
Salur: At least 10 quick-commerce companies will succeed globally by 2031
“I think there'll be at least three players in the more prominent markets. Smaller market, it can be one or two players, still at least two. And in the world total, there'll be at least 10 successful players. 10 years later, because no two companies can do the …”
1831 days left 2031-09-18
1840 days left 2031-09-27
Amazon and Alibaba will lose top e-commerce positions within 10 years
“I think in 10 years from now, Amazon and Alibaba will not be the biggest e-commerce companies anymore. They will get disrupted by other companies, younger companies, more creative, more agile companies, and I think people will look back at Amazon and Alibaba l…”
1887 days left 2031-11-13
1993 days left 2032-02-27
2018 days left 2032-03-23
2078 days left 2032-05-22
O'Driscoll: Four or more venture exits will top $65B in 5-7 years
“If there's not four exits, Above sixty five billion in the next five or seven years, then the people who bought Stripe, SpaceX, Databricks, OpenAI and Antropic are screwed. So I don't think they're screwed. So I think there's going to be, this trend is going t…”
2095 days left 2032-06-08
2211 days left 2032-10-02
O'Driscoll: OpenAI must hit $200B-$300B revenue or AI market faces severe crash
“One of two things is going to happen in the next five or seven years, right? Either A, you know, you are going to see pretty profound productivity changes. You're going to see companies like OpenAI literally being two to three hundred billion dollars in revenu…”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
2307 days left 2033-01-06
2379 days left 2033-03-19
2380 days left 2033-03-20
Ackman: Universal Music Group is the best 10-year long holding
“Well, I would say of the businesses we own, I would say in an uncertain world, you got to own universal music company, universal music group. Because the one thing I'm confident about is more people will have music subscriptions or be streaming music from what…”
2401 days left 2033-04-10
Boland: Europe will spend €2-3 trillion on defense within 8 years
“And there's probably, what, two to three trillion can be spent over the next five to eight years in Europe, in defense, actually, and all layers, not just final product, but like components, and there's lots of layers here, I think.”
2408 days left 2033-04-17
2412 days left 2033-04-21
2430 days left 2033-05-09
Paik: Multi-billion dollar bloated VC funds will unwind over a decade
“I don't think all, I almost, like, definitionally, I don't think all of them make it. I think we're gonna see over the next, here's the thing, like, it's gonna take a long time, it's gonna take a decade plus for this stuff to unwind, but they're gonna get lost…”
2450 days left 2033-05-29
Besvinick: Venture capital will bifurcate into small thematic funds and behemoths
“What you're ultimately going to see is a very distinct bifurcation of relatively smaller vertical oriented, thematic oriented funds, and then behemoths. And if you're just in the middle, it's very tough to stand out.”
2482 days left 2033-06-30
Douwe Kiela: AI will displace the majority human workforce within 5-10 years
“If you look at how OpenAI and Anthropic and these places define AGI, it's as systems achieving capabilities that allow them to effectively do the work of humans for the majority of economically valuable human tasks. Then we're not that far away from it. And so…”
2503 days left 2033-07-21
2550 days left 2033-09-06
2555 days left 2033-09-11
2555 days left 2033-09-11
2566 days left 2033-09-22
2625 days left 2033-11-20
2627 days left 2033-11-22
2632 days left 2033-11-27
Rabois: Structural inflation will keep interest rates high for a decade
“They're not going much down. I mean, I think we have sustained inflation for structural reasons for a decade. Yeah. Plus or minus, they might be slightly alleviated, but there's a lot of very strong reasons why this zero interest rate or low interest rate envi…”
2674 days left 2034-01-08
Samani: Every smartphone will have a built-in private key within ten years
“I want everyone in the world to have a private key built into their phone that is secure and that they can use for arbitrary financial movements, whether those are payments or investments and that they can do so across any application. And I have a high degree…”
2702 days left 2034-02-05
2709 days left 2034-02-12
2750 days left 2034-03-25
Clark: Tech venture exit sizes will increase over next 10-15 years
“Ultimately the markets that they're playing in, and the share of the economic pie that technology is going to capture, in our view, is only going to increase. And so that gives us confidence that whatever the multiples are at the time of exit, the directionall…”
2766 days left 2034-04-10
2824 days left 2034-06-07
2827 days left 2034-06-10
2829 days left 2034-06-12
Alex Wang: AI foundation models will cost $100B+ to train within 10 years
“I think in 10 years time, maybe they'll cost tens or hundreds of billions. And so there's just not very many entities that have that much discretion and capital to invest into these AI models. So naturally what will happen over time is AI effort, the foundatio…”
2834 days left 2034-06-17
Danny Rimer: Staying at Index in ten years indicates a failed transition
“I shouldn't be there in 10 years. If I'm still there, I'm doing something wrong, or they, or they're doing something wrong. So I'd like to see that the baton has been passed, and that the folks are taking Index to Higher and higher territory, but maintaining w…”
2852 days left 2034-07-05
2862 days left 2034-07-15
2873 days left 2034-07-26
2876 days left 2034-07-29
2883 days left 2034-08-05
Cahn: ChatGPT Is Now a $3.4 Billion Revenue Business
“Definitely OpenAI. I mean, OpenAI has a brand, it has consumer distribution, it has product market fit with ChatGBT, which is a 3.4 billion dollar revenue business now. I think ChatGBT will definitely be around. Yeah, I think a bunch of the others will too for…”
2885 days left 2034-08-07
2950 days left 2034-10-11
2960 days left 2034-10-21
Hamid: AI agents will replace human customer support within 10 years
“I think we will hopefully never talk to a customer support agent ever again. Like someone you call for the airlines, like, you know, help me my flight, I need to upgrade it, or I need to change my seat, or can you cancel it because I can't go? You know, the ba…”
2960 days left 2034-10-21
2983 days left 2034-11-13
Villig: Bolt will reinvest cashflow into expansion for next decade
“So our priority for sure is still growth. A hundred percent. So there's no intention for us anytime soon to become a profitable company that would be paying dividends or anything like that. Absolutely the focus is growth. However we have a set of markets where…”
2999 days left 2034-11-29
Guy Podjarny: Manual coding will become an edge case within 10 years
“And so I think the coding piece of software developers' work will diminish substantially. I think in 10 years' time, coding would be, ah, ah, very much alive and well, but it would be the edge case. It would be the thing that you do because, you know, like, it…”
3044 days left 2035-01-13
3051 days left 2035-01-20
Kanji: I plan to hand over Hoxton Ventures leadership within a decade
“I would love for us to have built a partnership, and I'm thinking actively about this, and I can hand the reins over where I'm just one of a few, and someone else is running the firm. If I can do that successfully over the next decade, I know I have a durable …”
3067 days left 2035-02-05
Bonatsos predicts edtech will complement rather than replace traditional schools
“I don't. I think it's gonna complement the school experience and life, but I have a hard time saying totally replacing schools because, you know, a lot of the schools are owned by states, by and funded by the government, and it's gonna be a massive, you know, …”
3072 days left 2035-02-10
3074 days left 2035-02-12
Management software market will consolidate to two or three players
“I do believe that management software will follow the same trends. Today, there are plenty of factors. But in the future, such technology will be so will be a commodity, like so much mature that there will be one, two, or three players that will have the world…”
3102 days left 2035-03-12
Östberg: Amazon stock gains will come solely from business growth, not multiple expansion
“I'm still a big fan of Amazon, but of course the valuation of those companies have gone up a lot. So you cannot count on margin expansion or multiple expansion. Sorry. So, so the growth in those stocks will only be, or the value growth in those stocks would ba…”
3111 days left 2035-03-21
3135 days left 2035-04-14
3163 days left 2035-05-12
3177 days left 2035-05-26
Airwallex aims to be bigger than Citi or HSBC by 2035
“I hope we have built no, the, one of the largest global payments and banking platform to power more than businesses around the world. I hope we have built a bigger business than city or HSBC because you know, when we succeeded doing that millions of businesses…”
3212 days left 2035-06-30
3212 days left 2035-06-30
3212 days left 2035-06-30
Freise: KKR aims to increase retail investor base to 50%
“We have six hundred seventy billion under management now. This number will go up massively, but what I want to see, I think historically the kind of individual retail type, broad based investor base is roughly 20%, maybe 30%. I want to see that to go to 50%.”
3247 days left 2035-08-04
$100B Venture IPOs Will Remain Rare Generational Outcomes Through 2035
“So, so my guess is that a hundred billion dollar IPO over the next 10 years is still going to be a generational outcome. And so the question I throw back is, you know, do you think there's going to be 10, 20 A hundred billion dollar plus IPOs. I do not think s…”
3250 days left 2035-08-07
3258 days left 2035-08-15
3275 days left 2035-09-01
3286 days left 2035-09-12
Bendov: Gong will need more engineers in 10 years despite AI productivity tools
“Well, because the business would outgrow, right? So yeah, they're using AI, like everybody, like vibe coding. Okay. That says like, you know, today, like maybe like 10, 15% productivity improvement, but the business is growing at a much faster pace. So I would…”
3289 days left 2035-09-15
AI models will still require human training data in ten years
“I very much believe so, and the reason is that the question comes down to when we'll have super intelligence. Once we have super intelligence and models are better than humans at everything, then, of course, that means that humans won't be able to contribute t…”
3296 days left 2035-09-22
Taneja: Stripe will become a $1 trillion company in 10 years
“I think Stripe's gonna be a trillion dollar company. He's gotta give it 10 years, you know, so I'm, we're, it's a compounding business that, you know, Patrick and John always say infrastructure is hard, but it also compounds, and they're sort of steadily just …”
3324 days left 2035-10-20
3366 days left 2035-12-01
Siddharth: AI data market will consolidate into a few main winners
“I think there'll be a few winners. I think there'll be a few winners. A few because I do think for the labs, it helps them to have a few partners for resiliency. And I imagine also for price competitiveness. I think there'll be a few winners.”
3434 days left 2036-02-07
3453 days left 2036-02-26
O'Driscoll: Only AI-led applications will grow over the next decade
“I think intelligence-led applications are the only applications that are going to sell And grow quickly over the next 10 years. Non-intelligent-led applications will at best be flat to mild growth if they're not obviously disrupted by intelligence, and at wors…”
3482 days left 2036-03-26
3496 days left 2036-04-09
Rory O'Driscoll: Supabase Will Become a Legacy Database Within 10 Years
“Over the next five years, that will mean adding complexity, adding functionality. And in 10 years time, someone, and it won't be me at that point, will be saying, oh, my God, those legacy Superbase products, they're almost as bad as MongoDB, and there'll be a …”
3510 days left 2036-04-23
3510 days left 2036-04-23
O'Driscoll: Core payroll SaaS will survive and compound over next decade
“These are entire businesses that, you know, might have some impact at the margin in terms of agentic efficiency, but this core business will be there in five, 10 years' time. It'll compound because payroll is not, not everything is, I mean, it's, we're actuall…”
3514 days left 2036-04-27
3521 days left 2036-05-04
3549 days left 2036-06-01
3596 days left 2036-07-18
Coal Power Generation Will Mostly Disappear Over The Next Decade
“I mean, I think any power from coal will mostly go away. I think you're still going to see a lot of gas, just because, particularly in the US, it's cheap, it works, it's fast, but I think coal is going to go away, and then you're just going to see more of ever…”
3616 days left 2036-08-07
Frankel: Photonic Computing Will Disrupt or Be Acquired by Nvidia Within a Decade
“In my view, if you say in 10 years time, and I am not a thematic investor, but I am such a deep believer in
The status quo being changed always, and not, and like nothing stays the same.
I think photonic computing is coming down the line, and I think that's go…”
3616 days left 2036-08-07
3631 days left 2036-08-22
Continuous Learning Models Will Obsolete Current AI Models Within Ten Years
“First of all, within 10 years, I believe we, and I think some people are thinking two or three years, continuous learning models will come into existence. That means that every generation of every model we have today Dies, goes away.”
3923 days left 2037-06-10
Sanghvi predicts institutional LPs will invest directly into DAOs by 2037
“And one would assume that if these DAOs are to be successful over time, much like companies, institutional investors over time will find direct access to these DAOs. Now it might take like, you know, 10 years, five years, 15 years, but if this is already happe…”
4262 days left 2038-05-15
4585 days left 2039-04-03
Stephens: Plans to Return to Government Civil Service Within 15 Years
“I am deeply committed to the idea of civil service. And I don't know if it's in five years or 10 years or 15 years, but at some point I want to be back as a public servant working for the good of our nation and our allies and partners.”
4592 days left 2039-04-10
4678 days left 2039-07-05
Rodrigues: Autonomous localization and perception tech will enable home robotics in 10-20 years
“I think that a lot of the technology that's been developed in terms of localization will then end up working in the home. You have all these cool perception pieces that we'built, allowing us to move around and allowing us to see and interact with things. Reall…”
4857 days left 2039-12-31
4990 days left 2040-05-12
Akhund: Airtable can reach a $50 billion valuation within 15 years
“I'm in it for the game as it was, and I do think, you know, these kind of compounders like Airtable you know, like there's companies I'm in where I'm like, okay, I can see this being a fifty billion dollar company, and if I just stick with it for, you know, ma…”
5015 days left 2040-06-06
Omaze Targets $8B Revenue and Gates Foundation-Level Charitable Impact
“It's not our 10 year vision, but it's our 15 year vision, is Fortune 500 impact number one. The Fortune 500 is right now is eight billion in revenue to be on that list. Impact number one means the number one source of charitable funds in the world outside of g…”
5258 days left 2041-02-04
5763 days left 2042-06-24
Pierre-Jacques: Harlem Capital aims to back 1,000 diverse founders in 20 years
“Our mission is to back thousand diverse founders and every founder we back obviously matters. Every life we change obviously matters, but I know we can do so much more and we set that mission. Of a thousand founders over 20 years for a reason, right?”
6419 days left 2044-04-10
6433 days left 2044-04-24
Zaparde: Software will fully automate procurement approvals within 20 years
“There's definitely a world, I mean, and hopefully a lot sooner than 24, 24, where you can say, no, actually, like, it just gets done right? Like, you don't need to, like, have a human go in there, review the thing, and then approve it. Like, that's actually, l…”
6697 days left 2045-01-13
6727 days left 2045-02-12
Odoo will displace SAP within 10 to 20 years
“First, I think it's just a matter of time. I think I don't know how they can survive to what's coming in from them. We have so much advance, years in our head, we are stealing so much clients to them, that it's just a matter of time for me. But it's gonna take…”
6812 days left 2045-05-08
6823 days left 2045-05-19
Severin Hacker: AGI and UBI will replace human jobs in 20 years
“I believe that's gonna happen. Again, the big question is, is when is it gonna be? I don't think it's gonna be next five years. It's not going to be, maybe it's going to be next 10 years if you really see a broad adoption of these technologies, more likely may…”
6949 days left 2045-09-22
7087 days left 2046-02-07
7192 days left 2046-05-23
7229 days left 2046-06-29
Shridhar: AI Demand Will Drive Global Electricity Abundance Within 20 Years
“So I'm super optimistic that if we look back 20 years from now, we will say AI was the best thing that happened because of which electricity abundance happened to everybody on the planet. AI is just a catalyst, a stepping stone, and a, and an accelerator.”
7278 days left 2046-08-17
Macdonald: In 15-20 Years, Nobody Will Own a Car or License
“Which is why I do think in some future world, maybe not five years, but 15 or 20 years, Everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around. And I think bikes and sc…”
7304 days left 2046-09-12
8879 days left 2051-01-04
9048 days left 2051-06-22
9447 days left 2052-07-25
Fadell: Climate infrastructure startups will become blue-chip monopolies like Standard Oil
“These kinds of things are big money. And you know what? What's even better is once you build them, They are one of these blue, they will be a blue chip in 20 years, in 30 years, because they're gonna be the new standard oils and the, you know, what have you, r…”
10465 days left 2055-05-09
10833 days left 2056-05-11
11052 days left 2056-12-16
25400 days left 2096-03-29
33113 days left 2117-05-12
Due for another look (10)
Ilishayev: In-app referrals will account for 30% of new GoPuff customers
“I think it's going to grow to 30% of customers this year come from in-app referral.”
Samani: Donald Trump will be in jail before the 2024 election
“My assumption is he will be in jail before the election, so I don't know if you can.”
Randle: Code generation market will add $4B to $5B ARR this year
“Instead of adding, you know, a billion dollars of net new this year, I think code generation is going to add, I don't know, four or five billion dollars of net new across every single product and service that's available for people to buy, both on the B to B a…”
Lemkin Bets Opendoor Stock Will Hit $24 by Year-End
“I'm going 20, I'm going 24. I don't know what the bet is exactly, but I got 24.”
Lemkin: Shaun Maguire will leave Sequoia Capital in 2025
“I'll take the bet that he leaves this year.”
Rory O'Driscoll: OpenAI will publicly accuse Microsoft of antitrust in 2025
“Accused, by the way, is a wonderfully vague word. Will they file a lawsuit and prevail? Maybe not, but will Sam throw words out? Yeah. That two and a half x on a yes, I'd take that chance.”
Morin: AI chip oversupply will lead to GPUs selling at 30% value
“I very much worry there will be an oversupply of these chips. The problem is, is that, you know, remember, the chips are the collateral. So, you know, somewhere, you know, in the US or whatever, there's going to be a data center with like a thousand GPUs that …”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Add 1,000 to 2,000 Salespeople Short-Term
“We'll have more salespeople next year because we need to really explain to everybody exactly the value that we can achieve with AI. So we will add another probably one to 2000 salespeople in the short term.”
Glovo Will Overtake Uber Eats in Portugal Within One Year
“I'd say Portugal, but we, but we're gonna get there in a year. Uber Eats is still ahead because we launched too late, but we're gonna get there.”
Stebbings: AI agents will replace junior marketers and SDRs within 12 months
“Most 25, twenty-six-year-old marketing managers or SDRs, I'm sorry to say it, they're not brilliant. They do not love the craft. They are not better than a phenomenal agent will be in the next 12 months. They will be replaced.”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Kyle Hill: The US senior population will double by 2050
“And then our senior population is going to double by 20 50.”
Hecker: Broken European pensions will force millions to invest over 20-30 years
“The statutory pension system we have in continental Europe is inherently broken, and that thesis suggests that basically in the next 2030 years, millions of people are going to start investing.”
Chad Byers: Susa Ventures Will Permanently Cap Fund Size at $150M
“The end state for us is 125, one hundred and fifty million dollar fund capped at that size, never getting bigger. Focus exclusively at early stage.”
Stan Boland: UK tech sector will reach $500B valuation in 10 years
“I think in, in 10 years time, I think we will be on, we will have achieved this five hundred billion dollars valuation in, in tech, and the UK will be seen as the magnet in Europe in which people come to kind of build these companies so that, that's what I thi…”
Cohen predicts streaming platforms will undergo market consolidation due to subscription fatigue
“Not all of these platforms are going to survive. There's just too many, you know, you've got to have too many subscriptions. It's too much for people. It's too expensive. It's too confusing. So I think you're gonna see consolidation there, which is in the inte…”
Armstrong: Coinbase will evolve into a holding company of decentralized units
“The future is a little hard to predict, but look, here's one vision I've had for it, which is that I think Coinbase Global, the parent company is starting to become more like a holding company over time. And we have this portfolio of different products, differ…”
Levy predicts cross-stage firms will scale companies from Series A to take-private
“In 10 years from now, it may be sooner than that, that you're going to have a handful of investment firms that are cross-stage, and you're going to show up at the Series A investor meeting, and you're going to say to the entrepreneur, I'm going to scale with y…”
Greze: Meta will launch a personal AI assistant inside WhatsApp
“They're going to have a personal assistant that's going to come in WhatsApp. I don't know if they're launching it in a day or in three months, but it's coming.”
O'Driscoll: Customer support applications will not require or use frontier AI models
“Customer support will not be using frontier models.”
Bavor predicts dedicated language model hardware in future phones and PCs
“Will you have a language model optimized hardware rolling out in, in our phones, in our computers? Yes.”
Google will launch a coding agent to compete with Codex
“Google doesn't yet have a product in this category, but I'm sure they're going to come after that.”
Perplexity will move AI inference to local devices to cut costs
“And now with progress in open source and local models and local chips, we're going to move some of the inference back to the local devices and bring down the cost even more.”
Chernin: Space-based compute infrastructure will eventually become a reality
“So many smart people are trying to solve this task and bring compute to the space that why wouldn't I believe it will happen?”
O'Driscoll: Software valuations will never reach 20x revenue multiples again
“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”
Levie: Enterprises cannot shift AI liability to providers like Anthropic
“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Emberikos: OpenAI Codex is pivoting back to building cloud-based autonomous agents
“The first is I actually want to get back to cloud. When we pivoted our strategy from, like, building the cloud, like, focusing on the cloud agent last year to working interactively, the thinking was very simple. It was just, and it's kind of like what I was te…”
Stebbings: AI model providers will displace customer support software startups
“I do think, sorry, I do think, like, I think you're going to come for customer support, and I wouldn't want to be in that category.”
Wallace: Corporate VC will exceed 50% of all venture dollars by 2031
“And I expect that sometime over the next decade, it'll be more than half.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Capture All Ad-Buying Value Natively Without Ad-Tech
“So I think for the paid ads, all the value that's going to be captured is going to be captured by OpenAI, and there's not going to be a optimization engine.”
Dudum: More startup founders will choose SPACs over traditional IPOs
“And so I fully expect in the next five, 10 years, more founders to consider that route because it was not something that I had heard of and not something my board had heard of, but we just looked at it from the ground up and dissected it and ended up feeling r…”
Doerr: EVs will reach price parity in the US by 2024
“This is key result one dot one to achieve price performance parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in the US by 2024. That means they cost 35,000 dollars and in India and China importantly by 2030 where the cost target has to be 11,000 dollars.”
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”