The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
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Next up (12)
6 days left 2026-09-19
48 days left 2026-10-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Stebbings: Most knowledge workers will use 24/7 background AI inference by 2026
“I think one thing that we're going to see in 2026 that no one's talking about is 24 seven inference that everyone is going to have inference running all the time, not just on input into chat GPT, but consistently for the majority of people, especially in knowl…”
238 days left 2027-05-09
Stebbings: ButcherBox will reach $1B revenue and $3B-$4B EV in 3-4 years
“I had the founder of ButcherBox on the show recently, and ButcherBox does six hundred million in revenue, very high quality revenue, the leading brand and category in the space. If you project out to a three, four years time, they'll be at a billion, enterpris…”
629 days left 2028-06-03
883 days left 2029-02-12
959 days left 2029-04-29
1003 days left 2029-06-12
1215 days left 2030-01-10
Stebbings: Consumers won't pay extra for newer AI models in five years
“I don't, I tweeted this yesterday actually because of this, sorry but I don't think in the future we will pay more for access to newer models. I think that is just a stage of the development cycle that we're in. In five years time we won't pay more for a bette…”
1262 days left 2030-02-26
1267 days left 2030-03-03
2566 days left 2033-09-22
Due for another look (1)
Stebbings: AI agents will replace junior marketers and SDRs within 12 months
“Most 25, twenty-six-year-old marketing managers or SDRs, I'm sorry to say it, they're not brilliant. They do not love the craft. They are not better than a phenomenal agent will be in the next 12 months. They will be replaced.”
Closed calls (31) the full record →
Stebbings: AI model providers will displace customer support software startups
“I do think, sorry, I do think, like, I think you're going to come for customer support, and I wouldn't want to be in that category.”
Stebbings: 2021 Venture Vintage Will Show Poor Returns Amid Inflated Valuations
“I'm pretty worried for venture as an asset class. I think 21 will be some pretty bad numbers and a really shitty vintage, and I think people are artificially keeping numbers high, and I don't think LPs have quite the understanding of how bad it is.”
Stebbings: Nubank will expand into the US market
“They're going to enter the U S it's a good bet. They've still got David at the helm. They're growing 28% year on year. I think we, I think new banker incredibly solid.”
Stebbings: Andreessen Horowitz Will Keep Raising Billions on 12% Return Expectations
“I think to your point, though, that the 10, 12% being good enough, I think that's exactly why Andreessen respectfully will continue to thrive and raise billions and billions of more dollars, because compared to the six or seven percent net that they're getting…”
Stebbings: Anthropic Projects Reaching $70B in ARR by 2028
“Anthropic projects seventy billion in ARR by 2028.”
Stebbings: Revolut will likely reach a $100B to $150B valuation
“I think everyone is realizing now that Revolut will quite likely be at least a hundred billion dollar company and likely a hundred and fifty billion.”
Harry Stebbings: Revolut will probably reach a $100 billion valuation
“Revolut is a forty-five billion dollar company now, and I think it'll probably be a hundred billion dollar company.”
Harry Stebbings predicts traditional VC round ownership will drop to 7.5%
“The days where they could take 15% are gone. It will be a new generation where they take seven and a half percent. Bluntly, alongside people like me and you taking seven and a half percent.”
Stebbings: OpenAI will top $800B valuation driven by new products
“I'll take the contrarian on you there and say that because of GPT-V and because of Kodak's being two very significant breakthroughs, they'll have enough, plus Johnny Ive coming out with something, a first product, the three combined will be enough to get enoug…”
Harry Stebbings predicts the quick commerce market will become a graveyard
“I don't think it's going to be like a As many winners as you think it is, I think it's going to be a bit of a graveyard.”
David protein bars will hit $100M revenue in first year
“And then with David, he's raised eighty-five million dollars from Green Oaks, Peter Atiyah, Andrew Huberman, and in their first year alone, they're gonna do a hundred million dollars in revenue.”
Stebbings: VC returns will compress to private equity levels
“Because what I worry about is, like, with the proliferation of capital, with pricing being where it is, with competition being where it is, like, I think we're going to see VC returns denigrate to more PE-style returns, and I'm actually looking at the asset cl…”
Stebbings: 97% of Capital Invested in Uber Will Not Return 1x
“97% of the money that's gone into Uber will not return one X, just given the quantum of money.”
Stebbings: Tech IPO market will not re-open until H2 2025
“But I think it's going to be longer. Like, you know, it, you'll see it in the update coming out this weekend, but it's like, you know, data breaks, stripe, it's not going to be enough to actually crack open the IPO markets like we think it will be, I don't thi…”
Stebbings: Stripe and Databricks Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't think Stripe or Databricks will go out in 24.”
Stripe and SpaceX Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't expect Stripe or SpaceX to go out next year, and Databricks alone won't be enough to crack open the IPO windows.”
Stebbings: CrowdStrike market cap will only reach $75B by Christmas 2024
“So I would go I'm gonna go for 75. I don't think it'll take such a rebound. I don't think it's gonna take such a rebound, but I think legals and fines are gonna be real, and I think it's gonna be an interesting enough story. It's touched enough consumer lives …”
Harry Stebbings: Tech M&A market will stall across all deal sizes
“So I think M&A is going to go to shit. I think anything sub a billion is not meaningful enough for M&A teams and corp dev teams to actually engage with. And I think anything over a billion is going to be incredibly arduous to get over the line from a regulator…”
Non-AI Growth Founders Will Face Valuation Compression
“Founders are going to need to reduce expectations on price if they don't have a great AI story, but they're at fifteen million in ARR, with good margins, strong revenue quality, the deals can still get done, But you're definitely going to see compression in te…”
Stebbings: Threads will stall at 5M DAU while Twitter grows
“I would say threads does not work. Maybe it teases along at five million DAU with hardcore small numbers. And I would say Twitter has modest growth to Two 75, 300 with election spikes.”
Stebbings: VC Ownership Targets Will Return to 15-20 Percent
“I think we're going to move back to an era where venture investors go, shit, the outcomes are lower, and so our ownerships need to be higher. And when we did take 10% in bubble times, we now need 15, 20 again.”
Stebbings: High-quality tech startups will face repricing in Q3/Q4 2023
“And I think Q three, Q four next year, you'll see the repricing of good assets who've run out of extension periods.”
Stebbings: VC market will become increasingly frothy over next 2-3 years
“I'm not seeing interest rates going up anytime soon, especially not for the next two to three years. And I think we'll continue to see this inflow of capital into the venture market, making the market ever more frothy than it's been for the next two to three y…”