The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

5open predictions

0due for another look

0closed calls →

52days to next prediction date

Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)

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Next up (5)

52 days left 2026-11-05

Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026

Arora: Open-source models will automate offensive cyberattacks within months

“I think in two, three months from now, open source have distilled all these capabilities, and we'll find open source models out there, which you can find to you if you're an attacker, to actually do this on a task basis.”

Nikesh Arora Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 23:03 Leo Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Blows Up | Moonshot AI Raises $3.5B at $35B

281 days left 2027-06-22

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027

Arora: Palo Alto Networks exclusively hires via hackathons to transform workforce

“We've been hiring people only through hackathons now, right? And we see natural attrition of two percent, give or take a month, and we just replace them with people who actually are AI savvy people who are from hackathons. Give me 12 months, I'll have sort of …”

Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 17:02 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

647 days left 2028-06-22

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028

Arora: Frontier AI models will focus on building memory over 1-2 years

“I suspect the Frontier AI models, as a crystal ball, they will spend a lot more time in the next year or two building memory around consumption.”

Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 28:35 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

1012 days left 2029-06-22

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029

Arora: Companies will cut G&A headcount by half within three years

“My rule of thumb is that in the next three years, we'll probably have half the people in GNA type activities in companies. Things like marketing, things like finance, things like HR, because there's a lot of process management there, and a lot of process manag…”

Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 13:32 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

9047 days left 2051-06-22

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2051

Arora: Cybersecurity will produce new multi-ten-billion dollar companies in 10-25 years

“There is room to build companies which have tens of billions of dollars of market cap in the next 10 to 25 years.”

Nikesh Arora Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 58:40 Nikesh Arora on the Frontier Model Problem: Breadth vs Depth | The Future of Token Costs · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

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