The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
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Next up (7)
261 days left 2027-06-01
1463 days left 2030-09-15
Tech companies will employ more software engineers in five years, not fewer
“I think more. And the reason is that engineering is such an elastic role, right? Where if we could build a hundred times more software or say we make engineers 10 times more efficient, We would probably build a hundred times more software, right? And so far as…”
1722 days left 2031-06-01
1722 days left 2031-06-01
OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years
“I could definitely see one of them being a 10 trillion dollar company maybe even significantly higher. It feels Like the opportunity associated with being the frontier model is so large that it will just like eat up so much of the other demand within the econo…”
1722 days left 2031-06-01
Foody: NVIDIA will lose its monopoly in five years but remain most valuable
“And so I would guess that in five years, it doesn't feel like Nvidia has quite the same monopoly, but that's okay, because even if they only have 30 or 40% market share in the largest market in the world by far, that is the world's most valuable company.”
3289 days left 2035-09-15
AI models will still require human training data in ten years
“I very much believe so, and the reason is that the question comes down to when we'll have super intelligence. Once we have super intelligence and models are better than humans at everything, then, of course, that means that humans won't be able to contribute t…”
Closed calls (1) the full record →
Mercor will likely complete a low-dilution financing round soon
“I think that it's likely we'll do a financing soon to answer your question with low dilution, largely because there's a lot of benefits to signaling ourselves as the market leader and RL environments and all of the high complexity data that we produce.”