The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

4open predictions

0due for another look

2closed calls →

939days to next prediction date

Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)

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Next up (4)

939 days left 2029-04-10

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029

Kevin Ryan: VCs will deploy existing dry powder over five years

“There's another characteristic in our business is there's actually a lot of VC money. You know, there's tons of cash sitting on the sidelines. That money is not going to be given back. That money is going to be spent. We're only debating whether people are goi…”

Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 11:21 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

2765 days left 2034-04-10

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2034

Kevin Ryan: Psychedelic industry will be 20x larger in 10 years

“We're big investors, for example, in the psychedelic industry. Is the psychedelic industry gonna be 20 times larger 10 years from now than today? Absolutely.”

Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 13:16 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

4591 days left 2039-04-10

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2039

Ryan: NYC will be the top tech startup hub in 15 years

“New York is killing it and will be the number one company clearly 15 years.”

Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 1:00:02 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

6418 days left 2044-04-10

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2044

Kevin Ryan: AlleyCorp Will Not Try to Become a $2B Fund

“The business we're in does not scale infinitely. We're not trying to accumulate assets, so I don't want to be a two billion dollar fund.”

Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 1:08:58 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Closed calls (2) the full record →

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Ryan: AlleyCorp stops investing in portfolio companies once valued at $1B

“You know, when our companies are worth a billion, we're just not investing in them at that point.”

Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 44:28 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Held up

Ryan: Salesforce will incorporate AI and defend market share from startups

“Salesforce is going to incorporate that in and, you know, a large company with a thousand person Salesforce is not going to easily switch off. To a startup company. And so I have confidence that Salesforce will incorporate AI into their product. Maybe it's six…”

Kevin Ryan Apr 10, 2024 ▶ 22:28 Kevin Ryan: Are the Best CEOs the Best Fundraisers & Why Ownership Should Not Be a Focus in VC|E1138 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

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