Assertion Not checkable as stated
No Net Value Has Been Created in E-Commerce Over Five Years
“E-commerce, there's been probably net, you know, no value created in five years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2039
Ryan: NYC will be the top tech startup hub in 15 years
“New York is killing it and will be the number one company clearly 15 years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Kevin Ryan: Miami Lacks Tech Talent and Will Not Become a Major Hub
“But I'm not seeing the tech talent in Miami, and I don't think it's going to get there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ryan: A Trump victory would result in Ukraine concessions and corruption
“The single thing that I'm concerned about is Trump winning on multiple dimensions, giving away Ukraine you know, Supreme Court justices, very, very, very poor execution of every aspect of government a level of corruption. That I think would follow.”
Disclosure
AlleyCorp Does Not Prioritize Target VC Ownership Percentages
“Here's the thing that I don't think about, which is our ownership. Sometimes we're paying a big price, and we're paying a big price because it's an incredible team and an incredible opportunity.”
Assertion Supported
Investors Will Only Fund Billion-Dollar Burn Rates in AI Today
“Today, I don't know that many companies outside of AI that where people will give you a billion dollars to lose. But today, you know, that exists in AI. It doesn't exist in a lot of other areas.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2034
Kevin Ryan: Psychedelic industry will be 20x larger in 10 years
“We're big investors, for example, in the psychedelic industry. Is the psychedelic industry gonna be 20 times larger 10 years from now than today? Absolutely.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Almost No Media Venture Investments Have Succeeded Recently Except Podcasts
“Same with media you know, with the exception of actually podcasts, hardly anything has worked. In the last five years in media.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
30% of VCs Reject Pitch Decks Unseen Due to Prior Sector Losses
“I see it all the time when we have a company going out and we approach 10 VCs and three of them will say, I invested in this sector eight years ago and I lost all my money. They haven't even read the deck yet”
Assertion Supported
Most top consumer internet founders were industry outsiders from other startups
“I once looked through the top hundred consumer internet companies. And the one pattern was that most of the people Who are very successful, had actually not come from that vertical, but they had come from another startup.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ryan: AI disruption could displace Google as top search engine within 5 years
“We don't know five years from now if Google's gonna be the number one search engine. There's a chance that's a disruptive technology that allows it to change.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Ryan: Pierpaolo Barbieri's Argentine neobank Ualá will become a $10B company
“Pierpolo, starting a mobile bank in Argentina, guess what? We didn't have as much competition, but there was geopolitical risk, you know, all kinds of risk. And he's been remarkably successful, but that's why it's going to be a ten billion dollar company, beca…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Almost None of the Top 25 Consumer Tech Companies Had Serial Founders
“So in, again, if we look back at consumer businesses, you know, out of the top 25 companies, how many were serial entrepreneurs? Almost zero. Almost zero.”
Disclosure
AlleyCorp Retains 55% to 60% Equity in Its Incubated Startups
“It depends, but, you know, roughly the team and CEO are probably going to get around 40, 45% of the company, and then we will have the rest because we came up with the idea, put in the money, did all the work, ah, and everyone gets paid from day one.”
Insight
Ryan: Multi-Stage Seed Signaling Risk Kills Startups
“If a huge fund puts a million dollars into your initial round, and if they don't lead the next round, your company's dead.”
Insight
Kevin Ryan: Tech hub success depends on graduate preferences, not tax policy
“It has nothing to do with tax policy, has nothing to do with anything. I say people who went to the top 20 universities in your country, where do they want to live? Where are they going to move? That's going to be your tech center.”
Opinion
Kevin Ryan: Biden administration and Fed economic management has been remarkable
“The combination of the stimulus, the fiscal stimulus, What the Biden administration has done, which doesn't get credit for combined with the Federal Reserve, has been remarkable management.”
Assertion Supported
Ryan: Biden's cabinet has zero examples of actual corruption
“I don't think there's a single example in the cabinet of Biden after four years that you can point to where we could point and say, I think that's actual corruption.”
Assertion Supported
Gilt Groupe Reached $1B Valuation Before Selling for $250M
“After four years, we're worth a billion dollars, and at the time, you know, everyone invested a billion because they thought it was worth two to three billion, and we ended up selling it for two hundred and fifty million dollars, despite having an incredible p…”
Assertion Supported
Only Two NYC Startups From the Last 30 Years Hit $25B
“The monetary answer is Mongo by far, you know, Mongo's worth twenty five billion dollars. There's only two companies started in the last 30 years in New York that are worth twenty five billion dollars.”
Assertion Partly supported
MongoDB Lost $1B Over 10 Years Before Reaching Profitability
“Mongo, we lost a billion dollars before we had a profitable quarter. Over 10 years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Kevin Ryan: VCs will deploy existing dry powder over five years
“There's another characteristic in our business is there's actually a lot of VC money. You know, there's tons of cash sitting on the sidelines. That money is not going to be given back. That money is going to be spent. We're only debating whether people are goi…”
Assertion Contradicted
No Online Clothing Department Store Startup Has Succeeded in 10 Years
“Not a single one of those has worked in 10 years.”
Insight
Kevin Ryan: The best CEOs are usually the best fundraisers
“Generally, yes, because if you can raise a lot of money, it increases your odds of doing well dramatically and allows you to make some mistakes.”
