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Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from 20VC: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

37,600 statements on the ledger →
6,239assessments with sources → 1,508episodes (so far) →

12,890 insights9,132 assertions5,465 disclosures4,908 predictions4,810 opinions395 what-ifs

predictions → 638 held up 218 didn’t hold up 134 partly held up
assertions → 3,439 supported 553 contradicted 1,257 partly supported
Changed Positions Same person, opposite position. Both tapes, side by side. 15 on record Star Treatment Does prominence change the questions? Every guest, plotted. prominence vs. host pushback Supercuts Didn’t hold up · Held up · Said with certainty exact-quote reels The Argument Index Debate potential by speaker, and the companies with the most bearish calls. debate potential, ranked The Numbers Museum Every figure ever claimed, checked where possible. 9,323 figures Entities Every company, fund and idea the show has opinions about, sources attached. 28,078 on the record The Calls Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. 338 open The Pulse What the Valley talks about, year by year, since 2015. who said it first Straight Answers Who answers the question asked, measured. Every moment timestamped and playable. 1,160 questions not answered directly Speaking Style Measured from raw, unedited recordings only. 475 speakers scored The Wisdom Wall The lessons worth keeping. No fortune cookies. 12,890 insights The Graph Eleven years of people, companies and ideas as one map. explore connections

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Anthropic will die within 12 months if complacent on Claude Code
“If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win, In six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 6:42 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Tobi Lütke calls the climate movement one of the most evil things
“Well, you have to get rid of the climate cult, first of all because it's just like, I mean, it's one of the most evil things that's been wrought on on, on, on population.”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 47:14 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Andreessen: Fears of AI labor displacement are 100% wrong
“This entire labor displacement thing is a hundred percent incorrect. It's completely wrong.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 1:01:57 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Andreessen: Most large companies are overstaffed by 50% or more
“Essentially, every large company is overstaffed. It's at least overstaffed by 25%. I think most large companies are overstaffed by 50%. I think a lot of them are overstaffed by 75%.”
Marc Andreessen Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 0:40 Marc Andreessen: Will a16z Go Public & Why Labour Displacement with AI is Wrong? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Mitchell Green: 50% to 60% of VCs add negative value
“I think 50% of people in the venture business should not actually be in the business. There's too much money and there's like too many tourists. 50, 60% of people in this industry that actually probably add negative value to companies.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 0:23 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mitchell Green: China will win the global AI competition
“Don't count China out. I bet they win the AI world.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 27:33 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

How the calls resolved the full record →

Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Canva has zero percent chance of Q4 IPO
“No, no. Zero percent.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 1:25:10 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Casper Will Scale Physical Retail to Over 200 Stores by 2021
“We now have 20 locations throughout the U.S. And Canada, and they've been doing so well that we're now committed to scaling that to over 200 stores in the next three years.”
Philip Krim Aug 31, 2018 ▶ 6:30 20VC: Casper Founder Philip Krim on The Right Way To Think About Marketing Channel Diversification, When To Accept Strategic Investors & How To Successfully Build Out Your Exec Team
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Ramp raised $200 million at a $16 billion valuation
“Here's the thing, it's two hundred million at sixteen billion.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 31:08 Chime IPO: Are IPOs Hotter Than Ever? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Wiz must IPO within 18 months after rejecting Google bid
“When the CEOs in, in, in, in the letter to the team says, we're going to go public instead, you got to do it in the next 18 months or so.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 20:08 Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google’s $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Open predictions the full timeline →

5days Lemkin Predicts Adobe Share Price Will Drop At Least 10% Jason Lemkin · prediction date: 2026-09-18 6days Stebbings: Manual AI model selection will disappear within a year Harry Stebbings · prediction date: 2026-09-19 13days O'Driscoll: Markets won't sustain a $400B valuation bump from Musk's fab announcement Rory O'Driscoll · prediction date: 2026-09-26 38days Hamid: LLM token prices will fall another 10x-20x within two years Mamoon Hamid · prediction date: 2026-10-21

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Eran Zinman 2 99 23 0 0 100%
Alex Bouaziz 2 89 13 0 0 100%
Michael Mauboussin 1 35 11 0 0 100%
Severin Hacker 1 82 8 0 0 100%
Peter Singlehurst 2 79 8 0 0 100%
Sanjit Biswas 1 55 8 0 0 100%
Saam Motamedi 1 43 7 0 0 100%
Danny Cohen 1 28 7 0 0 100%

From The Pulse the full pulse →

Pushback4.6/10
05102015201720192021202320262015 · 1.62016 · 1.92017 · 2.12018 · 2.12019 · 1.92020 · 1.92021 · 2.22022 · 2.92023 · 3.72024 · 4.62025 · 4.62026 · 4.6

How often claims get contested instead of accepted. The interview gets harder every year.
Setup questions41%
0%40%80%2015201720192021202320262015 · 69%2016 · 65%2017 · 62%2018 · 63%2019 · 65%2020 · 61%2021 · 60%2022 · 50%2023 · 43%2024 · 36%2025 · 37%2026 · 41%

Setups, compliments and promotional prompts as a share of questions. The bigger the show got, the fewer of them.
AI agents →607×
20152026
LLM →1,134×
20152026
NFT →223×
20152026
crypto →1,456×
20152026
efficiency2,395×
20152026

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“You're close to, you know, eight hundred billion of market cap needed to return a Forex net for those multi-stage funds. Now, for reference, twenty-twenty-one, the best exit year of all time, there…”

“We schedule a notification Almost exactly at 23 and a half hours later from that time, and we've tested many different timing, and the notification will remind you to practice your Spanish, because…”

“I think there is a Correlation between how aggressively people predict AGI is coming and how much capital they need to raise. So you've got Emodi from Anthropic, you've got Altman, OpenAI, Musk, XAI,…”
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