The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14,040 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Anthropic will die within 12 months if complacent on Claude Code
“If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win, In six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around.”
Mitchell Green: China will win the global AI competition
“Don't count China out. I bet they win the AI world.”
Nvidia Conceals Massive Chip Field Failure Rates to Keep Customers Waiting
“You don't talk about the field failure rate of your products, which are massive. Rather you sort of keep talking about the future in an effort to convince people to wait, to make a good decision rather than go with technology that's, that that's better and pre…”
Elon Musk and Tesla Failed at Building Wafer-Scale Chips for Dojo
“And after we did it Elon tried Dojo and they failed.”
Lemkin: AI will replace half of knowledge workers in 24 months
“Half of these knowledge workers are going to be gone in 24 months”
Lazarte: Only 1% of computer knowledge work will exist in 10 years
“What percentage of knowledge work as we know today will exist in 10 years? Like if you define work, knowledge work as work you do behind a computer, I think it's probably like one percent.”
Feldman: Nvidia Has Zero CUDA Software Lock-In for AI Inference
“In inference, it's not real at all. There's no CUDA lock-in in inference. None. Well, you can move from OpenAI on an NVIDIA GPU to Cerebrus to Fireworks Service on something else to Together to perplexity with 10 keystrokes. I mean, anybody who actually uses A…”
Pishevar: Bill Gurley hired PIs and met weekly to oust Travis Kalanick
“We found out in our investigation that he hired Some private investigators had weekly meetings about how do we get rid of Travis.”
Pishevar: Benchmark Hired Private Investigators Against Naval Ravikant
“There's a history of VCs who have done this type of thing and in Benchmark's case, they did it against Naval. They hired private investigators and Naval Ravikant. He had a company called eGroups, and he got thrown out of it.”
McCabe: COVID mRNA vaccines were harmful while traditional treatments worked
“During COVID, it turned out that these gene therapies were really bad for you, and that these traditional treatments were really, really helpful. Don't slap your face like I shouldn't have said that, because it's fucking true.”
Shaun Maguire claims Iran has recently obtained nuclear weapons
“Allegedly they have just recently obtained nuclear weapons.”
Asparouhov: Benchmark cornered Travis Kalanick in a hotel room after mother's death
“Travis committed no crime and they, you know, sort of ousted him despite the fact that, you know, they actually didn't necessarily, you know, have the legal control to do so. They just cornered him in a hotel room, you know, two days after his mother had passe…”
Matt Clifford: The UK Can Return to Being the World's Richest Country
“I think the UK can go back to being pretty much the richest country in the world per capita. I really truly believe that.”
Lemkin: Every venture capital firm has a fraudulent company in its portfolio
“And every VC has a fraud in their portfolio. Every single VC has a fraud in their portfolio.”
Summers: A second Trump term would gravely damage the US economy
“I believe very strongly that by undermining the rule of law, On which contracts exchange and property depend by alienating the rest of the world and by pitting some groups of Americans against other groups of Americans and devaluing the idea of unity and commo…”
Cohen: Nobody will use Concur, Amex GBT, or Salesforce by 2028
“In five years from now, nobody is using, going to use Conquer and Emacs. Nobody, by the way, nobody is going to use Salesforce.”
Wood: Disruptive innovation market cap will hit $210T in ten years
“We believe today that truly disruptive technologically enabled innovation is priced in the global markets, public and private, at somewhere in the seven to eight trillion dollar range. So it's less than 10% of the global equity cap, public and private. We beli…”
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Chris Sacca claims he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“And I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the president of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Sacca says he watched Mark Zuckerberg lie to the U.S. President
“I've been in the room with Zuckerberg. I've watched him fucking lie to the President of the United States about what they know internally versus, like, the claims he spouts out loud.”
Tenev denies Robinhood colluded with hedge funds to restrict meme stock trading
“The idea that somehow the most wrong thing was this allegation of collusion that we're somehow colluding with hedge funds that we have no business relationship with to somehow restrict buying of these stocks. Yeah, I think that was just wrong.”
Franceschetti: AI bots replaced Eight Sleep's email team and generate $100M
“Within three days, she was able to build multiple bots that now run all our email marketing. And so now we have a team of zero and email marketing makes Close to a hundred million.”
Curative Is Cutting 80% Of Its Enterprise SaaS Spend This Year
“We're cutting about 80% of our SaaS spend this year.”
Corporate Anthropic Spend Will Reach 2x To 5x Engineer Salaries
“Between maybe two and five X would be the two and five X salary.”
Lemkin: Will only invest in startups working in-office six days weekly
“I want small high paid teams that work in the office over six days a week. That's I'm not interested in investing in anything else. I'm just not interested. And it's not because I don't have empathy. It's because they're gonna fail.”
AI agents will generate more revenue than Google or Meta ads
“These products are not going to be used by you know, a hundred million people. But they will generate revenue that's going to be higher than the advertising revenue of Google or Meta. It's going to happen.”
OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years
“I could definitely see one of them being a 10 trillion dollar company maybe even significantly higher. It feels Like the opportunity associated with being the frontier model is so large that it will just like eat up so much of the other demand within the econo…”
Laqua: Employees taking weekends off have no place at Corgi
“If your days off happen to be Saturday and Sunday every week, then you will not have a place at Corgi.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Will Pass OpenAI in Scale and Profitability Shortly
“Within a couple of quarters, Anthropic will be visibly and obviously ahead. Profitable, growing more quickly, and bigger.”
Peets: Anthropic will reach a $4T to $5T valuation
“I think Anthropik's a four or five trillion dollar company.”
Lemkin: SpaceX market valuation will triple in 2026 driven by retail investors
“I'm going to take this bet that it's going to trade up three X, In twenty-twenty-six, just based on GameStoppers driving it up.”
Weitzman: Speechify will soon spend more on AI tokens than salaries
“We're getting to the point where soon we're going to spend more on tokens than we spend on actual salaries.”
Weitzman: AI Token Budgets Will Outpace Engineering Salaries Within Three Years
“We'll get there in three years. Yeah. You just need to be like a really strong early adopter.”
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Jake Paul Claims He Is Uncancellable Because He Has Done Nothing Bad
“That's the thing is I'm uncancellable because like no one will ever find or see anything about me that is actually bad. And it's all just like fake hate.”
Jason Lemkin: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic combined IPO values will top past 20 years
“The big three, SpaceX plus OpenAI plus Anthropic, their value at IPO will exceed every other IPO for the last 20 years combined.”
Hassabis: Google and DeepMind developed 90% of modern AI breakthroughs
“I would say about 90% of the breakthroughs that underpin the modern AI industry were done either by Google Brain or Google Research or DeepMind, so one of our groups.”
Hassabis: There is a very good chance AGI arrives within five years
“I mean, I think, look, I've got a probability distribution around the timings, but I would say there's a very good chance of it being within the next five years.”
Andreessen: Over 99% of AI's economic value will accrue to users
“I think AI is the exact, I think it's already that way. I think it's going to be exactly the same way. It might even be greater than that. It might be 99.9999% of the value of AI is going to accrue to the users, not to the companies that make the AI.”
Andreessen: Companies falsely blame AI for corporate layoffs
“And now they all have the silver bullet excuse, right? Ah, it's AI. Right, and I know this for a fact, because number one, I talk to them, but number two, I know this for a fact, because AI until, like, literally until, like, December, right, was not actually …”
Lemkin: Nvidia will reach $10 trillion cumulative bookings in 5-7 years
“I think there's a high degree of confidence that most of the roads lead back to Nvidia reaching 10 trillion of cumulative, cumulative bookings over the next five to seven years.”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Zinman: Enterprise spending on software will grow 100x
“The time of software, how much companies are going to spend on software is going to be a hundred X for what it is today.”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna cut headcount by 50% to under 3,000 employees
“We've gone from 7000 people. We're now below 3000. We've shrank 50%.”
Siemiatkowski: AI enterprise compression could significantly reduce demand for NVIDIA chips
“Well, that would mean that you would leave mean significant, you would need significantly less.”
Lemkin: Non-engineering software categories face existential seat shrinking
“Every category that I know of outside of engineering and product is at existential risk of shrinking seats.”
O'Driscoll: Nearly all 2020–2021 venture investments will yield 1x or less
“Because if you think everything in 20, 21 was either priced wrong and makes a one X or early and just totally wrong and makes, you know, less than one X, let's just say, right? Other than a few companies that were the early precursors of AI”