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Fabrice Grinda

Founding Partner, FJ Labs · 4 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutive@fabricegrinda ↗LinkedIn ↗fabricegrinda.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

He co-founded and served as CEO of the global classifieds network OLX, as well as earlier tech startups Zingy and Aucland. Through his venture fund and startup studio FJ Labs, he has become an active marketplace and early-stage investor, backing companies like Alibaba, Delivery Hero, and Flexport.

74statements → 26claims → 13claims resolved → 62%fully supported → 3.94/5average certainty → 2.42/5average debate potential → 4.3/5argument clarity · the sources → 10said about them ↓

8 supported 3 partly supported 2 contradicted 13 not checkable as stated how the 26 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

12 predictions · 14 assertions · 10 opinions · 14 insights · 24 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 26 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 13 are resolved, and 13 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Fabrice argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Grinda: Major Late-Stage Startup Repricing Coming Within 12 Months
“Where I'm most excited about opportunities to deploy a lot of capital at good prices in the coming 12 months, yes, it is the B and beyond, or C and beyond, because I think we're going to see major repricing.”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 44:34 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 42:54 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
0% certainty 2
88% certainty 3
71% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.3 / 5 directness 4.7 · coherence 4.5 · precision 4.2 · compression 3.7

redirected or did not address 3 of 52 assessed questions (6%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

263 words/min while actually speaking · 22.8 um and uh per 1k words · 27.1 false starts per 1k · 30% of pauses land inside a clause

English is their second language (first language: French). These numbers measure fluency in English. They do not measure thought; the argument clarity score above is read from substance alone.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 20,028 words across 3 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 3 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 2.7/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 2/10
setup questions received 58%

Everything Fabrice Grinda said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 42:54 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Grinda: Switzerland Is a House of Cards That Could Default
“Last year, as I was thinking through what are safe havens for cash, I was thinking of putting a lot of my cash in Swiss francs in Switzerland. And I did an analysis, and I realized, and I actually came to the conclusion that it's the opposite. I think Switzerl…”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 35:15 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
Opinion
Grinda: UBS and Credit Suisse Are Too Big for Switzerland to Bail Out
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it. And I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them.”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 36:44 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
Opinion
Grinda: Anduril products are extraordinarily high cost and not battle-tested
“Endural, and look, I'm an investor in Endural. The problem is their cost is extraordinarily high, and so the way you measure this is cost per kill, and they're not battle-tested.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:12:42 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Grinda: Tech remains in the middle of an AI bubble
“We're still in the middle of an AI bubble. If you look at like the amount of money that's going into AI versus every other category in terms of valuations raised, the amount, the number of companies getting funded.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:06 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Grinda: FJ Labs maintains 30% IRR by selling winners early
“I want to say the cheat code I use for IR, why I still can get 30% IR today, is the virtue of being diversified means I own two, one to three percent of any of the companies, and so what I've been doing is getting secondaries on the way up. So, I've been doing…”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 16:02 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grinda: US lacks manufacturing capacity and would lose a war with China
“Right now, we don't have the manufacturing capacity. We would lose a war with China right now.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:13:30 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fabrice Grinda auto-signed all investment legal documents unread for 15 years
“For 15, actually, probably for 15 years, every document that was ever sent to me, legal document that was sent to me, SPA, Anything like companies selling, et cetera. I auto signed, or my, actually, my virtual assistant in the Philippines, who had my signature…”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 3:20 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Fabrice Grinda calls the degrowth movement bullshit, championing tech productivity instead
“The degrowth movement is bullshit, like no one wants to go back to being a farmer and having a life expectancy of 29, starving multiple times a year, so the only way we solve the problem is actually through technology-led productivity growth and deflation”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 37:48 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Grinda Auto-Signed All Angel Investment Legal Documents Without Reading Them
“Every document that was ever sent to me, legal document that was sent to me, SPA, anything like company selling, et cetera, I auto-signed, or actually my virtual assistant in the Philippines who had my signature would auto-sign for me all the docs that I never…”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 5:59 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
Opinion
Grinda: Crypto Is a Risk Asset, Not an Inflation Hedge
“Crypto is not An inflation hedge , it's still a risk asset”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 13:19 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
Opinion
Grinda Rejects Degrowth, Citing Technology-Led Productivity as the Sole Solution
“The degrowth movement is bullshit. Like, no one wants to go back to being a farmer and having a life expectancy of 29, starving multiple times a year. The only way we solve the problem is actually through technology-led productivity growth and deflation, and t…”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 32:38 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
Insight
Grinda: Best time to invest in VC, but avoid all-AI funds
“I think it's the best time to invest, but the, in a way, investing in venture right now is contrarian, and I think you should be investing in funds That are not going after the lovingy, you know, AI, all AI, all the time category.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:53 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Grinda: Investors underestimate the risk of total loss in fast-scaling AI
“I feel people are underestimating the risk of zeros, even though something can go from zero to a hundred million AR very quickly, and usually they're priced accordingly. And I, you know, I care about, like, what am I, what returns, what do you need to underwri…”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 9:04 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Grinda: AI disruption benefits startup marketplace incumbents over legacy giants
“The AI disruption is actually benefiting startup incumbents, because they have the data modes, and so it doesn't benefit eBay, you know, because they're slow and big, but it benefits, you know, an incumbent startup that has already liquidity, that is the most …”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 39:15 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grinda: OpenAI and horizontal LLMs will dominate most AI model categories
“At the fundamental LLM level, I think the horizontal, you know, GPT may just win most categories. The same way that Google won search reasonably read large, except maybe kayak for travel. I suspect, I think OpenAI and JGPD win most of the LLM type categories”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 41:39 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grinda: AI price competition will destroy investor value before winners emerge
“While I do think eventually a winner to emerge and they'll have the proper pricing power, and I do think in the long run you're able to extract value when you create value, there may be a lot of investor value destruction on the way up because people are compe…”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 56:04 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grinda: Ukraine could become the manufacturing hub for defense technology
“I'm investing a lot actually in Ukrainian defense startups, because I think my vision is that Ukraine could become the manufacturing hub for defense.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:12:31 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FJ Labs decides on startup investments after a single one-hour meeting
“And so I created a setup for a process for deciding in a one hour meeting if I would invest or not in a startup. And that's essentially one that we still use to this day, you know, with refinement over time.”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 2:15 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Fabrice Grinda argues technological progress always outperforms short-term macroeconomic cycles
“History trumps macro, right? Like, the last 200 years of I've been a history of technological progress that has led and innovation that has led improvements in the human condition. And over the last 200 years, despite world wars, the great depression... If you…”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 21:49 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Fabrice Grinda explains why $20 billion mega-funds cannot effectively write $10M checks
“If you're deploying twenty billion, You really don't get out of bed and write a ten million dollar a check very often because it just doesn't move the needle. Like there's no, you're not deploying enough capital. It's like a return of capital that you can make…”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 26:25 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Invest if passing means lifelong regret over a founder, says Fabrice Grinda
“When you start the statement with, this is a foundational generational company, and the founder is extraordinary, and I'm going to regret this decision the rest of your life. You are. Do not, if you write that, make the investment.”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 59:22 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Fabrice Grinda discloses a 45% realized annual IRR across 24 years
“In the last 24 years, and I've realized I are 45% a year. And then in the unrealized, we have like 650 companies or so, it's like also 45% implied IRR.”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 1:01:55 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grinda Assigns 60% Chance to Macroeconomic Stagnation, 20% to Severe Downturn
“Today, in my probabilistic terms, I'd say there's a 20% scenario that we probability that we end up with a optimistic outcome from where we are, and I can explain why. Maybe a 60% scenario of what I call the Great stagnation, and another 20% scenario of, like,…”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 11:43 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H

Show 24statements(50 left)

The other half of the tape: Fabrice Grinda's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 9 times in 4 episodes on 20VC. 1 statement on the record names them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Mitchell Green 5Thomas Plantenga 2Harry Stebbings 2

Statements about Fabrice Grinda, by other people (1)

Assertion Partly supported
Fabrice Grinda has over $300M in exits and 200 angel investments
“He has over three hundred million dollars in exits and has made over 200 angel investments, including in the likes of Alibaba, Lending Club, and Brightroll.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 16, 2015 ▶ 0:15 20 VC 072: Super Angel, Fabrice Grinda: The Future of Startup Investing

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
002141201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
011201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
0020.541201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 2 mentions in 1 episode
2025 4 mentions in 1 episode
2024 2 mentions in 1 episode
2015 1 mention in 1 episode

Appearances (4)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings May 1, 2025 18m
Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · May 21, 2022 55m
20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To May 9, 2022 43m
20 VC 072: Super Angel, Fabrice Grinda: The Future of Startup Investing Sep 16, 2015 23m

Played on the show (1)

Episodes where a recording of Fabrice Grinda was played rather than Fabrice taking part, or where the tape carries an address with nobody putting questions to them. Listed because the words are on the record, kept out of every score on this page because they were not said on this show. We read this off the tape: who was spoken to, who was asked something, who answered whom.

EpisodeDateOn tapeWhat it is
20VC: The Memo: Bill Gurley, Doug Leone, Keith Rabois; Investing Lessons from Prior Busts, Jun 29, 2022 2m clip played
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