The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 74 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Grinda: Switzerland Is a House of Cards That Could Default
“Last year, as I was thinking through what are safe havens for cash, I was thinking of putting a lot of my cash in Swiss francs in Switzerland. And I did an analysis, and I realized, and I actually came to the conclusion that it's the opposite. I think Switzerl…”
Grinda: UBS and Credit Suisse Are Too Big for Switzerland to Bail Out
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it. And I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them.”
Grinda: Anduril products are extraordinarily high cost and not battle-tested
“Endural, and look, I'm an investor in Endural. The problem is their cost is extraordinarily high, and so the way you measure this is cost per kill, and they're not battle-tested.”
Grinda: Tech remains in the middle of an AI bubble
“We're still in the middle of an AI bubble. If you look at like the amount of money that's going into AI versus every other category in terms of valuations raised, the amount, the number of companies getting funded.”
Grinda: FJ Labs maintains 30% IRR by selling winners early
“I want to say the cheat code I use for IR, why I still can get 30% IR today, is the virtue of being diversified means I own two, one to three percent of any of the companies, and so what I've been doing is getting secondaries on the way up. So, I've been doing…”
Grinda: US lacks manufacturing capacity and would lose a war with China
“Right now, we don't have the manufacturing capacity. We would lose a war with China right now.”
Fabrice Grinda auto-signed all investment legal documents unread for 15 years
“For 15, actually, probably for 15 years, every document that was ever sent to me, legal document that was sent to me, SPA, Anything like companies selling, et cetera. I auto signed, or my, actually, my virtual assistant in the Philippines, who had my signature…”
Fabrice Grinda calls the degrowth movement bullshit, championing tech productivity instead
“The degrowth movement is bullshit, like no one wants to go back to being a farmer and having a life expectancy of 29, starving multiple times a year, so the only way we solve the problem is actually through technology-led productivity growth and deflation”
Grinda Auto-Signed All Angel Investment Legal Documents Without Reading Them
“Every document that was ever sent to me, legal document that was sent to me, SPA, anything like company selling, et cetera, I auto-signed, or actually my virtual assistant in the Philippines who had my signature would auto-sign for me all the docs that I never…”
Grinda: Crypto Is a Risk Asset, Not an Inflation Hedge
“Crypto is not An inflation hedge , it's still a risk asset”
Grinda Rejects Degrowth, Citing Technology-Led Productivity as the Sole Solution
“The degrowth movement is bullshit. Like, no one wants to go back to being a farmer and having a life expectancy of 29, starving multiple times a year. The only way we solve the problem is actually through technology-led productivity growth and deflation, and t…”
Grinda: Best time to invest in VC, but avoid all-AI funds
“I think it's the best time to invest, but the, in a way, investing in venture right now is contrarian, and I think you should be investing in funds That are not going after the lovingy, you know, AI, all AI, all the time category.”
Grinda: Investors underestimate the risk of total loss in fast-scaling AI
“I feel people are underestimating the risk of zeros, even though something can go from zero to a hundred million AR very quickly, and usually they're priced accordingly. And I, you know, I care about, like, what am I, what returns, what do you need to underwri…”
Grinda: AI disruption benefits startup marketplace incumbents over legacy giants
“The AI disruption is actually benefiting startup incumbents, because they have the data modes, and so it doesn't benefit eBay, you know, because they're slow and big, but it benefits, you know, an incumbent startup that has already liquidity, that is the most …”
Grinda: OpenAI and horizontal LLMs will dominate most AI model categories
“At the fundamental LLM level, I think the horizontal, you know, GPT may just win most categories. The same way that Google won search reasonably read large, except maybe kayak for travel. I suspect, I think OpenAI and JGPD win most of the LLM type categories”
Grinda: AI price competition will destroy investor value before winners emerge
“While I do think eventually a winner to emerge and they'll have the proper pricing power, and I do think in the long run you're able to extract value when you create value, there may be a lot of investor value destruction on the way up because people are compe…”
Grinda: Ukraine could become the manufacturing hub for defense technology
“I'm investing a lot actually in Ukrainian defense startups, because I think my vision is that Ukraine could become the manufacturing hub for defense.”
FJ Labs decides on startup investments after a single one-hour meeting
“And so I created a setup for a process for deciding in a one hour meeting if I would invest or not in a startup. And that's essentially one that we still use to this day, you know, with refinement over time.”
Fabrice Grinda argues technological progress always outperforms short-term macroeconomic cycles
“History trumps macro, right? Like, the last 200 years of I've been a history of technological progress that has led and innovation that has led improvements in the human condition. And over the last 200 years, despite world wars, the great depression... If you…”
Fabrice Grinda explains why $20 billion mega-funds cannot effectively write $10M checks
“If you're deploying twenty billion, You really don't get out of bed and write a ten million dollar a check very often because it just doesn't move the needle. Like there's no, you're not deploying enough capital. It's like a return of capital that you can make…”
Invest if passing means lifelong regret over a founder, says Fabrice Grinda
“When you start the statement with, this is a foundational generational company, and the founder is extraordinary, and I'm going to regret this decision the rest of your life. You are. Do not, if you write that, make the investment.”
Fabrice Grinda discloses a 45% realized annual IRR across 24 years
“In the last 24 years, and I've realized I are 45% a year. And then in the unrealized, we have like 650 companies or so, it's like also 45% implied IRR.”
Grinda Assigns 60% Chance to Macroeconomic Stagnation, 20% to Severe Downturn
“Today, in my probabilistic terms, I'd say there's a 20% scenario that we probability that we end up with a optimistic outcome from where we are, and I can explain why. Maybe a 60% scenario of what I call the Great stagnation, and another 20% scenario of, like,…”
Grinda: Early-Stage VCs Should Focus on Macroeconomic Conditions 7-10 Years Out
“As an early stage investor, like pre-C, seed, and A, it doesn't really impact me too much because the macro I care about is the macro is seven, 10 years in the future.”
Grinda: Major Late-Stage Startup Repricing Coming Within 12 Months
“Where I'm most excited about opportunities to deploy a lot of capital at good prices in the coming 12 months, yes, it is the B and beyond, or C and beyond, because I think we're going to see major repricing.”
Grinda: Moats are built through execution, not evaluated at initial investment
“And so the barrier to entry, in fact, if we look at how we select companies to invest in, and there's a bunch of criteria barriers to entry is not one of them because the barriers to entry or something you build, By virtue of executing, you build a brand, you …”
Grinda claims a 70-80% IRR and 7x average return across 210 startups
“Over the years, I've invested, as I said, around the 210 startups. We've actually made money in over 50% of the exits. On average today, we've done about seven acts and over 70 or 80% of IRR.”
Grinda discloses target entry valuations: $4M pre-seed, $10M seed, $20M Series A
“I'm coming in at Four pre at pre-seed, at 10 pre at seed, and at 20 pre at A's, and I feel very comfortable that in 10 years, these will be much, much larger with valid business models, and we less risk of disruption.”
Grinda: Scaling $100M to $200M in US is easier than $0-100M abroad
“If you're at a hundred million revenues, it's easier to go from a hundred to 200 in the US than zero to a hundred anywhere else, and that's true at a billion.”
Grinda: 60% of personal net worth allocated to early-stage startups
“My personal net worth is still 60%, basically early stage startups, because they can grow very dramatically.”
Fabrice Grinda argues crypto is a risk asset, not an inflation hedge
“This goes to show that crypto is not an inflation hedge. It's still a risk asset have been marked down dramatically.”
Fabrice Grinda notes annual US seed deals expanded from 5,000 to 20,000
“There used to be 5000 seed funded startups per year in the U.S. That would raise 500 K or more. And last two years, it was almost 20,000. So we tripled, we more than tripled, I mean, it was over 15,000. It was between 15 and 20,000. So we tripled or quadrupled…”
Fabrice Grinda keeps 60% of his personal net worth in early-stage startups
“My asset allocation, my personal net worth is still 60% basically early stage startups”
Fabrice Grinda predicts VC funds will see fewer exits and lower IRRs
“It means we have fewer exits in the next few years. It means the valuations at which these exits happen are lower which means that the IR we get are lower”
FJ Labs made zero Series C+ investments in 2021 due to pricing
“I mean, last year we didn't do a single deal C and beyond, just because prices are too high.”
Fabrice Grinda predicts major Series B and C repricing within 12 months
“Where I'm most excited about opportunities to deploy a lot of capital at good prices in the coming 12 months. Yes, it is the B and beyond or C and beyond, because I think we're going to see major repricing”
Grinda: US Seed-Funded Startups Surged to 15,000-20,000 Annually in 2020-2021
“There used to be 5000 seed-funded startups per year in the U.S. That would raise 500 K or more, and last two years, it was over 15,000. It was between 15 and 20,000.”
Grinda: Insight Partners Will Not Disrupt Series A and B Venture Markets
“I don't think they're going to screw up the A and B market and asset class because they're going to play. It's not going to be the bread and butter.”
Grinda Predicts Fewer Exits, Lower Valuations, and Lower VC IRRs
“It means we have fewer exits in the next few years. It means the valuations at which these X's happen are lower, which means that the IR we get are lower”
Grinda: Achieved 45% Realized Annual IRR Across 300 Exits
“I've had 300 exits or so. I don't know the exact number in the last 24 years. And I've realized I are 45% a year.”
Grinda: Fundraising help offers maximum VC value for minimal effort
“We spend most of our time helping startups with, because it's also where we can have the most value add with the least amount of work that we need to do, because it's all about like relationship, but also talking about experiences that we face time and time ag…”
Grinda: Seed-to-Series A information rarely justifies the valuation jump
“Well, the reason we don't typically follow on is usually, especially in frothy times, the amount of information you get between the C and the A is not enough to know that this is a clear winner. So often, so the price increases dramatically, the prorata of our…”
Grinda: Taking companies public took all the fun out of founding
“And then I built three large venture-backed companies, and two of which ended up being public, and I was like, the last thing I would ever want is to be public ever again. Like, in fact, that took all the fun out of being a founder for me.”
Grinda: FJ Labs avoids early AI deals, preferring to invest in winners
“And that's why I've been staying at the sidelines, especially considering the valuations they've been raising at. I'd rather pay up when one of them seems to be the dominant winner, and I suspect that then price and traction will be more aligned.”
Grinda: 60% probability of economic stagnation, 20% chance of severe downturn
“Today, in my probabilistic terms, I'd say there's a 20% scenario that we probability that we end up with a optimistic outcome from where we are, and I can explain why. Maybe a 60% scenario of what I call the great stagnation, and another 20% scenario of, like,…”
Fabrice Grinda warned of an 'everything bubble' across asset classes in 2021
“A year ago, I wrote a piece called Welcome to the Everything Bubble, and I made the argument, and so that was in March 20, 21, that a combination of extraordinarily low, loose monetary and fiscal policy was fueling an asset bubble in every asset class simultan…”
Fabrice Grinda assigns a 60% probability to prolonged macroeconomic stagnation
“Today, in my probabilistic terms, I say there's a 20% scenario that we, probability that we end up with a optimistic outcome from where we are, and I can explain why. Maybe a 60% scenario of, like, what I call the great stagnation and another 20% scenario of, …”