Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Grinda: Major Late-Stage Startup Repricing Coming Within 12 Months

Fabrice Grinda · 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H · May 9, 2022 · at 44:34

Fabrice Grinda is the founding partner of FJ Labs. Speaking in May 2022, he anticipates significant valuation drops in late-stage startups.

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“Where I'm most excited about opportunities to deploy a lot of capital at good prices in the coming 12 months, yes, it is the B and beyond, or C and beyond, because I think we're going to see major repricing.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Fabrice Grinda

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
Fabrice Grinda May 21, 2022 ▶ 42:54 Fabrice Grinda: The First Person to Predict the Collapse of Credit Suisse? | 20VC #886 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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Grinda: Switzerland Is a House of Cards That Could Default
“Last year, as I was thinking through what are safe havens for cash, I was thinking of putting a lot of my cash in Swiss francs in Switzerland. And I did an analysis, and I realized, and I actually came to the conclusion that it's the opposite. I think Switzerl…”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 35:15 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
Opinion
Grinda: UBS and Credit Suisse Are Too Big for Switzerland to Bail Out
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it. And I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them.”
Fabrice Grinda May 9, 2022 ▶ 36:44 20VC: WTF Is Going On? 3 Outcomes for What Could Happen From Here; What Needs to Happen To Avoid Recession? Why Stagnation is Most Likely and What This Means for Startups and Venture & Why Catastrophe is More Likely Than Ever and Switzerland Could Be a "H
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Grinda: Anduril products are extraordinarily high cost and not battle-tested
“Endural, and look, I'm an investor in Endural. The problem is their cost is extraordinarily high, and so the way you measure this is cost per kill, and they're not battle-tested.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:12:42 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Grinda: Tech remains in the middle of an AI bubble
“We're still in the middle of an AI bubble. If you look at like the amount of money that's going into AI versus every other category in terms of valuations raised, the amount, the number of companies getting funded.”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 1:06 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Grinda: FJ Labs maintains 30% IRR by selling winners early
“I want to say the cheat code I use for IR, why I still can get 30% IR today, is the virtue of being diversified means I own two, one to three percent of any of the companies, and so what I've been doing is getting secondaries on the way up. So, I've been doing…”
Fabrice Grinda May 1, 2025 ▶ 16:02 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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