The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
drag to pan · pinch, buttons, or ⌘/ctrl scroll to zoom
Next up (6)
473 days left 2027-12-31
746 days left 2028-09-29
887 days left 2029-02-17
1476 days left 2030-09-29
1476 days left 2030-09-29
1476 days left 2030-09-29
Ross: NVIDIA will retain 50%+ revenue share with 10% chip volume
“My prediction is that in five years, NVIDIA will still have over 50% of the revenue. However, they will have a minority of the chips sold. They might have, you know, minority share. They might have 51% of the revenue, and they might have 10% of the chips sold.”
Closed calls (7) the full record →
Ross: Groq Will Never Create Its Own AI Models
“In our case we found an area where we will not compete with our customers, which is we will not create our own models. So we just won't do it.”
Ross: Groq will not train proprietary AI models to avoid competing with clients
“We have decided that we're not going to train our own models. We'll do a little fine tuning for specific cases or whatnot, but we don't want to compete.”
Ross: The entire AI industry will shift to Mixture of Experts architecture
“What you're going to see is everyone else starting to use this MOE approach.”
Ross: NVIDIA will keep selling chips despite AI labs building custom silicon
“NVIDIA still keeps selling chips.”
Ross: Groq plans to upgrade its AI chips annually
“We're looking at upgrading chips about once a year.”
Ross: NVIDIA Will Sell Every Single GPU It Builds
“NVIDIA's gonna sell every single GPU that they build.”
Ross: AI companies will use massive GPU clusters to generate synthetic data
“What you're going to see now is now that everyone has seen this deep seek architecture, they're going to go great. I have hundreds of thousands of GPUs. I'm now going to use a lot of them to create a lot of synthetic data. And then I'm going to train the bejes…”