The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
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Next up (2)
860 days left 2029-01-20
Closed calls (6) the full record →
Hoffman: DOGE has zero chance of cutting $2T without defense cuts
“There is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending.”
Hoffman denies UK move rumors, remaining based in Seattle
“I will remain living in Seattle, Washington. It's my residence.”
Hoffman predicts US defense spending will increase under incoming administration
“Like, if I anticipate anything gonna be happening in the next administration, it will be increase in defense spending versus decrease, despite all the, we're gonna have fiscal discipline, and we're gonna reduce costs, and we're gonna bring this, you know, a ma…”
Hoffman: DOGE will not attempt to reform Medicare spending
“Now, again, you know, unfortunately, I would predict that they're not going to do that because it's a political third rail and it requires, you know, Courage and other things to go into it.”
Hoffman predicts Bitcoin will approach $200,000 by the end of 2025
“I would say end of 25, so I'm approaching 200,000.”
ByteDance Will Delay TikTok Action Until After the US Presidential Election
“Likely, and I have no inside information here, I think ByteDance waits for the election, because they presume that Trump could get bought off by investors since, you know, he's a coin-operated person in his entire life, not just as in his presidency.”