The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
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Next up (29)
5 days left 2026-09-18
53 days left 2026-11-05
Lemkin: Tesla is months away from allowing owners to profit off robotaxis
“As soon as this really works, and maybe it's only single digit months away, he has millions of people who could be paid more than their lease price to allow the car into the fleet. And when he said this a decade ago, it sounded effing insane. He said that your…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, and Anthropic will IPO in 2026
“I think we see four IPOs backloaded next year. SpaceX goes out first. Canva comes out of nowhere second. Databricks does it in the back half of the year because it's just time. Anthropic does it at the end of the year. OpenAI probably should have gone first, b…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: Custom chip competition will not threaten Nvidia's dominance in 2026
“You're a fool to invest against Nvidia for 2026. And I think you are arguably a fool to invest into Amazon in 20, 26 for a simple reason. Just a simple, I didn't say 20, 27 or 20, 28. It is not enough time for all this competition to come online. It is not eno…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: Anthropic and Databricks will IPO in late 2026
“I think Anthropic and Databricks have an incentive to IPO, as best I understand it. They have an incentive. As Rory said, times are great. And so I think it'll be the, unless, unless, unless the market crashes for some reason, I think they're going to do it wh…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Lemkin: Slack will achieve Notion-like ARPU growth from AI in 2026
“I suspect as the year goes on, we're gonna see the same thing at Slack, because most folks haven't used it, we're on it. The AI version of Slack for certain use cases is so much better. I don't love that they're not just charging another four bucks a month, bu…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
110 days left 2027-01-01
166 days left 2027-02-26
230 days left 2027-05-01
236 days left 2027-05-07
243 days left 2027-05-14
290 days left 2027-06-30
Lemkin: OpenAI's IPO will be delayed until mid-2027 as Altman secures alternative financing
“I think that's a good idea. I think Sam will come up with so much alternative financing. It'll slip into mid 27, but I think that's the straw man today would be my guess. Like that's the plan, but there'll be so much, so many other sources of maybe the governm…”
342 days left 2027-08-21
384 days left 2027-10-02
474 days left 2027-12-31
Lemkin: Open Evidence will raise at $30B-$40B valuation next year
“Open Evidence will probably do a round at 30 or 40 next year. I'm actually going to suggest that Thrive is very smart. And they've probably done the math and this is the right insertion point for them. And they believe in it. And someone else is going to do it…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
531 days left 2028-02-26
Lemkin: AI agents will stop requiring custom setup within two years
“Every agent, here's the problem today, and this will change in the next two years. It is not true today. Every agent is essentially custom, ok? Every agent needs to be trained. Every agent needs to be onboarded. If you want it to be great, ok? Every agent need…”
840 days left 2028-12-31
1038 days left 2029-07-17
Lemkin: 100% of S&P 500 companies with cash will buy Bitcoin
“I think a hundred percent of S&P companies are going to buy Bitcoin over the next 48 months. A hundred percent. I think it's going to become part of the standard treasury function in the CFO's office that has cash. It's going to be part of cash management and …”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1802 days left 2031-08-20
Lemkin: >51% chance OpenRouter drives 20-30% of Stripe's revenue in 5 years
“I think it'll be like the scale acquisition. It will be the start of something that gets bigger, whether this brand exists or whether even this product exists five years. I don't even think this product will exist in five years, but I think it will be, I think…”
2379 days left 2033-03-19
Due for another look (2)
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
Lemkin: AI will enable 20-to-40-person teams to build billion-dollar companies
“If you allow for some outsourcing agencies resources that come and go, I think we will see a bunch of 20, 30, 40 person, billion dollar companies because a core of engineers, a bunch of AIs making, and people are going to be like, you know what, dude, not, I d…”
Lemkin: Elon Musk or xAI Will Sue Apple
“He's incensed, and he's got a lot of money in XAI. I mean, he has, he's the richest man in the world, but he doesn't have unlimited capital, so I think it happens.”
Lemkin: B2B software vendors will bundle AI for free in SMB plans
“Next generation AI for B to B, as you approach true SMB, it's more and more going to be base and included with a limited upsell opportunity.”
Lemkin: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI will rush IPOs due to capital pressure
“What all three of those say to me is there's no matter, there's subtle pressure around access to capital. Like they've all got to have an IPO strategy sooner than they'd hoped because Data center, because XAI needs capital, because Anthropic is even worried ab…”
Lemkin: Elon Musk Will Not Settle With OpenAI and Will Win
“They ain't going to settle for that. He's going to go to trial and he's going to win.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable will surpass $250M combined ARR
“I would say over, over two 50, but barely.”
Lemkin: Tech companies will absorb $400M per IPO when markets recover
“When the engine revolves, we will absorb four hundred million again per IPO.”
Lemkin: Menlo Ventures will 10x to 15x its investment in Chime
“They said they did the Series B, right? So they did the Series B at 203 hundred. Maybe we can figure it out on the fly. They're going to, this will be a nine. There'll be some dilution. They'll 10 or 15 X their money, right? That'll be a fun returner or more t…”
Lemkin: Venture funding and valuations will never return to 2021 peaks
“For founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021. Never.”
Lemkin: Employees joining a $1B unicorn in 2023 will make nothing
“If as an employee, if you join a company with, in, in 2023 with a valuation over a billion as an employee, you're gonna make nothing. It doesn't matter what it sells for, you're gonna make nothing.”
Lemkin: First founder-VC pitch meetings will never happen in person again
“Like the first meetings will never happen in person again, right? Even if you're in San Francisco, you're all in San Francisco, they'll never happen.”
Lemkin: OneStream will IPO at $500M revenue growing 34%
“I mean, the new, the next one's one stream, right? They're gonna IPO at five hundred million in revenue, growing 30 some odd percent, 34%.”
Lemkin: SpaceX IPO will be a dud and will not trade up
“I think the IPO nominally will be a dud. I don't think it will trade up dramatically.”
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation
“I think Elon, what Elon said Publicly on X, it ain't going to be two trillion. Maybe he'll change his mind. He said two trillion was too high. So whatever his number is, I think he's going to get it on IPO day. He's going to will it into existence. The underwr…”
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Lemkin: Replit V4 will autonomously build software features overnight
“I know on the next release of Replit, not only does it happen because they've built their own set of guard roles, but the agents do it at night. So in the next release of Replit, when you log in the next day, it will have built three to four features for you o…”
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
Lemkin: 2026 will mark the end of entry-level sales jobs
“There'll be, this is the year where we will see the end of so many entry-level sales jobs. We still need AEs. We still need people knocking on doors. We do not need two-year-old kids sending emails. Those jobs will disappear.”
Lemkin: 2026 will see one or two trillion-dollar tech IPOs
“The idea that we will have a trillion dollar IPO next year, maybe two, we might have two trillion dollar IPOs”
Lemkin: Lovable will reach $400M ARR by end of next year
“First, I have no doubts. That's easier to do the math. One to a hundred in six months. I mean, that would be a colossal F-up if it doesn't get to 400.”
Lemkin: Market gains will produce the first half-trillionaire by 2026
“I'm making a bet. I'm actually making the bet it's higher. I'm all in on the market. Wow. I'm betting your twenty-twenty-six number, even though it's not really consistent with reversion to the mean for gains of public activities, right?”