Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Lemkin: Open Evidence will raise at $30B-$40B valuation next year

Jason Lemkin · Anthropic Inference Costs Skyrocket |TikTok Deal Closes |The IPO Market:Wealthfront & EquipmentShare · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Jan 29, 2026 · at 43:44

Jason Lemkin, SaaS investor and founder of SaaStr, discusses AI medical search startup Open Evidence's valuation trajectory following a round led by Thrive Capital at a $12 billion valuation.

0:00 / 0:16exact quote · 16.9s

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“Open Evidence will probably do a round at 30 or 40 next year. I'm actually going to suggest that Thrive is very smart. And they've probably done the math and this is the right insertion point for them. And they believe in it. And someone else is going to do it at 30 to 40 next year as it goes to 400 next year or 500. Someone's going to do that.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Jason Lemkin predicts Open Evidence will raise a funding round at a $30 billion to $40 billion valuation next year as its revenue reaches $400 million to $500 million.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The prediction targets a funding round at a $30 billion to $40 billion valuation occurring in 2027 (or by December 31, 2027). As of July 23, 2026, OpenEvidence's highest confirmed valuation is $12 billion from its January 2026 Series D round, with discussions reported in July 2026 regarding a potential $20 billion valuation. Since the resolution horizon extends through December 31, 2027, it cannot yet be determined whether the target valuation will be reached within the specified timeframe.

OpenEvidence raised a Series D round at a $12 billion valuation on January 21, 2026.
As of July 2026, reports indicated discussions around a $20 billion valuation round, but no round at $30B–$40B has been executed or announced.
The resolution window runs through December 31, 2027.

Checked against

[1] substack.com [2] greaterbayhealthcare.com [3] openevidence.com [4] fiercehealthcare.com [5] sacra.com [6] crunchbase.com [7] cryptobriefing.com [8] beckershospitalreview.com

assessed as of 2026-07-23

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

⏳ prediction date: 2027-12-31; checked again automatically on the next resolution wave

Mentioned

OpenEvidence Thrive Capital

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