Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 60% certainty 5/5 debate potential 3/5

Lemkin: Custom chip competition will not threaten Nvidia's dominance in 2026

Jason Lemkin · Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Dec 22, 2025 · at 57:00

Jason Lemkin is a prominent SaaS investor. He responds to Rory O'Driscoll's suggestion to short Nvidia in 2026.

0:00 / 0:49exact quote · 49.3s
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“You're a fool to invest against Nvidia for 2026. And I think you are arguably a fool to invest into Amazon in 20, 26 for a simple reason. Just a simple, I didn't say 20, 27 or 20, 28. It is not enough time for all this competition to come online. It is not enough time for everyone. Everyone's trying to do a TPU now, right? Their own version. Amazon's got theirs. Google open AI has its own team. Everyone's trying to get out from the, as Rory keeps pointing out, The massive Nvidia tax they think they're paying. It's just natural to design out your most expensive component. It's just natural. It ain't going to happen in 20, 26. There is not enough time. They're just, there's not enough time to produce enough GPUs and TPUs to get them into data centers that don't exist.”

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