The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Rory O'Driscoll (114)Jason Lemkin (104)Harry Stebbings (47)Jonathan Ross (15)Philipp Freise (9)Kevin Ryan (9)Brendan Foody (9)Max Junestrand (8)David Cahn (8)Andrew Feldman (8)Reid Hoffman (7)Nikesh Arora (7)
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The record (984) every resolved claim →
Kyle Hill: The US senior population will double by 2050
“And then our senior population is going to double by 20 50.”
Hecker: Broken European pensions will force millions to invest over 20-30 years
“The statutory pension system we have in continental Europe is inherently broken, and that thesis suggests that basically in the next 2030 years, millions of people are going to start investing.”
Chad Byers: Susa Ventures Will Permanently Cap Fund Size at $150M
“The end state for us is 125, one hundred and fifty million dollar fund capped at that size, never getting bigger. Focus exclusively at early stage.”
Stan Boland: UK tech sector will reach $500B valuation in 10 years
“I think in, in 10 years time, I think we will be on, we will have achieved this five hundred billion dollars valuation in, in tech, and the UK will be seen as the magnet in Europe in which people come to kind of build these companies so that, that's what I thi…”
Cohen predicts streaming platforms will undergo market consolidation due to subscription fatigue
“Not all of these platforms are going to survive. There's just too many, you know, you've got to have too many subscriptions. It's too much for people. It's too expensive. It's too confusing. So I think you're gonna see consolidation there, which is in the inte…”
Armstrong: Coinbase will evolve into a holding company of decentralized units
“The future is a little hard to predict, but look, here's one vision I've had for it, which is that I think Coinbase Global, the parent company is starting to become more like a holding company over time. And we have this portfolio of different products, differ…”
Levy predicts cross-stage firms will scale companies from Series A to take-private
“In 10 years from now, it may be sooner than that, that you're going to have a handful of investment firms that are cross-stage, and you're going to show up at the Series A investor meeting, and you're going to say to the entrepreneur, I'm going to scale with y…”
Greze: Meta will launch a personal AI assistant inside WhatsApp
“They're going to have a personal assistant that's going to come in WhatsApp. I don't know if they're launching it in a day or in three months, but it's coming.”
O'Driscoll: Customer support applications will not require or use frontier AI models
“Customer support will not be using frontier models.”
Bavor predicts dedicated language model hardware in future phones and PCs
“Will you have a language model optimized hardware rolling out in, in our phones, in our computers? Yes.”
Google will launch a coding agent to compete with Codex
“Google doesn't yet have a product in this category, but I'm sure they're going to come after that.”
Perplexity will move AI inference to local devices to cut costs
“And now with progress in open source and local models and local chips, we're going to move some of the inference back to the local devices and bring down the cost even more.”
Chernin: Space-based compute infrastructure will eventually become a reality
“So many smart people are trying to solve this task and bring compute to the space that why wouldn't I believe it will happen?”
O'Driscoll: Software valuations will never reach 20x revenue multiples again
“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”
Levie: Enterprises cannot shift AI liability to providers like Anthropic
“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
Emberikos: OpenAI Codex is pivoting back to building cloud-based autonomous agents
“The first is I actually want to get back to cloud. When we pivoted our strategy from, like, building the cloud, like, focusing on the cloud agent last year to working interactively, the thinking was very simple. It was just, and it's kind of like what I was te…”
Stebbings: AI model providers will displace customer support software startups
“I do think, sorry, I do think, like, I think you're going to come for customer support, and I wouldn't want to be in that category.”
Wallace: Corporate VC will exceed 50% of all venture dollars by 2031
“And I expect that sometime over the next decade, it'll be more than half.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Capture All Ad-Buying Value Natively Without Ad-Tech
“So I think for the paid ads, all the value that's going to be captured is going to be captured by OpenAI, and there's not going to be a optimization engine.”
Dudum: More startup founders will choose SPACs over traditional IPOs
“And so I fully expect in the next five, 10 years, more founders to consider that route because it was not something that I had heard of and not something my board had heard of, but we just looked at it from the ground up and dissected it and ended up feeling r…”
Doerr: EVs will reach price parity in the US by 2024
“This is key result one dot one to achieve price performance parity with internal combustion engine vehicles in the US by 2024. That means they cost 35,000 dollars and in India and China importantly by 2030 where the cost target has to be 11,000 dollars.”
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Siddharth: Governments will build sovereign internal AI models
“I think it would make sense for governments to build their own internal versions of some of these models, which would require proprietary data again to be collected.”
Rory O'Driscoll: ChatGPT will succeed without destroying Google Search
“The likely outcome for me is ChatGP continues to build this compelling consumer product, can command differentiated market, while at the same time Google search does not quote unquote go to zero.”
Shlomo: AI model market will not be winner-take-all
“It's like, either it's not going to be one winner takes it all. And there's going to be like more and more companies getting into this market. It's going to be like the Chinese players that are now like changing the entire market dynamics.”
O'Driscoll: AI platforms like ChatGPT will inevitably launch advertising
“I'm sure the other shoe to drop at some point is advertising. So it all makes sense because it's the only way it's one of only two ways to monetize the free users. So it's going to happen.”
Ross: Groq Will Never Create Its Own AI Models
“In our case we found an area where we will not compete with our customers, which is we will not create our own models. So we just won't do it.”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Zhang: Valuation gap between OpenAI and Anthropic will shrink over time
“I don't think that long-term necessarily we'll always see a five X difference between open and anthropic. So I guess, yeah, maybe, maybe if the question is more like, what is spread trade? I think like that, that multiple will shrink. Over time.”
Nejatian: Opendoor will not remain a solely asset-heavy company
“We will not choose to stay in a solely asset heavy world.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Buy Compute From Oracle If Cheaper Than Microsoft
“Do I think the Oracle will book a fair amount of cloud compute from OpenAI? Absolutely. Maybe not three hundred billion, but if he's willing to provide it at a lower price than Microsoft, my guess is those fine people at OpenAI will take it.”
Staniszewski: OpenAI will definitely enter the AI voice market
“They definitely will, but I think they, you know, they lack the...”
Deeter: AI Will Double Vertical SaaS TAM and Valuation Just Like Payments Did
“I think AI is going to do the same thing, that what it can do you know, with Service Titan, as they talk about automating the technician experience and the ability to go out there and have a co-pilot alongside of you.”
Deeter: 10-Person Micro-Businesses Will Reach Billion-Dollar Valuations
“I think we're going to see the era of the micro business. I think that we're going to have, you know, 10 person companies that are crossing billion dollar valuations and, you know, kids in schools are going to be able to launch businesses in real time in, in w…”
Deeter: Venture Capital Index Will Underperform S&P 500 Again
“Historically, it has underperformed the S&P and probably will again in this case but you'll make money.”
O'Driscoll: VC Market Will Not Return to $100 Million Funding Caps
“Yeah, I think it's maybe not as pronounced as now, but it ain't going back to everything with A's, B's and C's and nothing be more than a hundred million dollar raise.”
Lemkin: AI will enable 20-to-40-person teams to build billion-dollar companies
“If you allow for some outsourcing agencies resources that come and go, I think we will see a bunch of 20, 30, 40 person, billion dollar companies because a core of engineers, a bunch of AIs making, and people are going to be like, you know what, dude, not, I d…”
Lemkin: Elon Musk or xAI Will Sue Apple
“He's incensed, and he's got a lot of money in XAI. I mean, he has, he's the richest man in the world, but he doesn't have unlimited capital, so I think it happens.”
David will scale its multi-brand portfolio through internal creation, not M&A
“The difference is Mars has done it through M&A. We'll do it through creation.”
Casado: The AI coding model market will become an oligopoly
“Oligopoly. This is how the cloud, well, this is how the cloud played. I think probably the best analog we have is the cloud, right?”
O'Driscoll: FTC will investigate Big Tech's 'empty husk' deals
“So the FTC is not going to let this happen without poking around.”
O'Driscoll: xAI will fail to displace ChatGPT's dominant consumer mindshare
“The market's already been taken and maybe it gets some share of it, but I don't think, yeah, I don't think you can build as big a thing. I don't think you can build, I don't think you can displace ChatGPT at scale in the minds of the consumer, which is 80, 90%…”
Tenev: Robinhood stablecoin interest products will generate significant revenue
“Well, if we as we get stablecoin out, Crypto will have that as well. You'll be able to earn interest on your stable coins, and that'll be a significant business.”
Flanagan: AI agents will be priced against human labor costs
“Yes. I think we're going to price agents against human labor costs, outcomes.”
Kansu: Future software will dynamically generate user interfaces on the fly
“What hasn't emerged much is UI creation that is also AI first. So I think you'll see a lot of on the fly UI generation off of what you're doing instead of hard coded UI that comes into play.”
O'Driscoll: AGI's arrival will be defined by Microsoft and OpenAI litigation
“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”
Lemkin: B2B software vendors will bundle AI for free in SMB plans
“Next generation AI for B to B, as you approach true SMB, it's more and more going to be base and included with a limited upsell opportunity.”
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
O'Driscoll: Major AI labs will inevitably acquire an AI coding app
“If they don't do if they don't do Winsurf now, the line of other coding apps outside the OpenAI office is going to go around the frickin' block. And at some point, someone's gonna buy something.”
Green: Prices for AI infrastructure are going to plummet
“Same thing's gonna happen. Prices are gonna plummet.”
HubSpot will adopt hybrid seat and usage-based pricing models
“We believe that in the fullness of time, we will have hybrid pricing. We'll have some seed based pricing and some usage based pricing.”
Östberg: Ground delivery robotics will scale faster and larger than aerial drones
“I would say robotics will be faster. So and probably be able to cover a larger portion of business.”
Morin: Compute-in-memory will be the next frontier in AI hardware
“So this is the next frontier, and the idea is that instead of, like, transferring the data between external memory and the CPU and do the compute there, you actually, you know, bring the CPU to the memory and you do everything. It's very, you know, it's crazy …”
Hiremath: Only a few companies will build foundational AI models
“There will only be a couple of companies that are able to build these foundation models that everyone builds off of. I think OpenAI is a great example of one of those companies. And I think, you know, that analogy roughly holds. I don't anticipate there being …”
Ross: Groq will not train proprietary AI models to avoid competing with clients
“We have decided that we're not going to train our own models. We'll do a little fine tuning for specific cases or whatnot, but we don't want to compete.”
Solomou: TikTok Shop and social commerce will reach $1T within five years
“In the next five years or less, it's expected to be a one trillion market. The TikTok shop social commerce world overall is expected to be a one trillion market.”
Ramaswamy: ChatGPT Will Remain the Primary Consumer AI Entry Point
“On the consumer side, I know you disagree, I think ChatGPT is getting to be that entry point, and so if I were a betting person on the consumer side, To the extent that there are variations in models and specializations I think that'll include to the incumbent…”
Monzo Aims to Unite All Consumer Finance Products in One App
“We intend to meet all of these needs of a customer, right? Budget, borrow, spend, save, insure, invest, all of that In a single place, right? That's what we're building.”
Ross: The entire AI industry will shift to Mixture of Experts architecture
“What you're going to see is everyone else starting to use this MOE approach.”
AI will force SaaS pricing models to shift from seats to consumption
“For sure. You know, I think a lot of SaaS tools have been very focused on seed count and, you know, once you replace, you know, human labor with AI functionality pricing should adjust and maybe be more focused on consumption in addition to seeds.”
Riparbelli: AI algorithms will achieve 10x to 100x efficiency gains
“Someone will come up with an algorithm that can, that is like 10, a hundred times as efficient as what it is today.”
Eggers: Cleantech investing will resurge in the 2020s under Biden
“Yeah, I think it will, especially if we end up with a Biden administration.”
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Dines: Salesforce and SAP Will Limit AI Agents to Own Platforms
“What's the interest of Salesforce to provide amazing connections to SAP and vice versa? No, it's not. So they will focus on building agents that work specifically for workloads that stay within their platforms.”
Hoffman: DOGE has zero chance of cutting $2T without defense cuts
“There is next to zero chance that the missions that they have declared will be successful because the only way to get two trillion out of the budget would be to massively reduce the deficit and reduce defense spending.”
Hoffman denies UK move rumors, remaining based in Seattle
“I will remain living in Seattle, Washington. It's my residence.”
Hoffman predicts US defense spending will increase under incoming administration
“Like, if I anticipate anything gonna be happening in the next administration, it will be increase in defense spending versus decrease, despite all the, we're gonna have fiscal discipline, and we're gonna reduce costs, and we're gonna bring this, you know, a ma…”
Stebbings: 2021 Venture Vintage Will Show Poor Returns Amid Inflated Valuations
“I'm pretty worried for venture as an asset class. I think 21 will be some pretty bad numbers and a really shitty vintage, and I think people are artificially keeping numbers high, and I don't think LPs have quite the understanding of how bad it is.”
Guy Podjarny: Mid-tier tech companies will acquire easier under Trump
“The very top layer, the top companies that Trump affiliates as liberal and anti-Trump will not have kind of a better life because of his administration, and the companies that are just the layer below, they will be able to acquire a lot more easily.”
Hommels: Drone warfare will shift from single operators to autonomous swarms
“You had like one drones, yeah, that got flied by one soldier, and then you have the next development will be swarms, and then you will have be attacking swarms and defending swarms”
Malik: Perplexity is moving toward simpler landing page messaging
“Where we're moving to is really simple language around ask anything or what do you want to know and search like never before.”
Villig: AV developers like Waymo will not operate ride-hailing fleets long-term
“My view is that most of these companies Like Waymo over the longterm don't want to operate a car network. It's just too much hassle. So I think that these companies can build what they're fantastic at, which is building the software. And then there's going to …”
Altman: Competing AI labs will successfully replicate OpenAI's o1 model
“After, after a research lab does something, even if you don't know exactly how they did it, it's, I won't say easy, but it's doable to go off and copy it, and you can see this in the replications of GPT-IV, and I'm sure you'll see this in replications of O-one…”
Khachab: Europe will receive AI products last due to regulatory friction
“I'm not sure if we're not gonna get it, I think we're just gonna get it last. It's gonna just, it's just gonna take longer.”
Frankel: Thrive Capital LPs will make a 2x return on OpenAI
“Is Josh in the winner there going to make two X, and maybe much more than that, but bet against the two X? I wouldn't bet against the two X. I think his LPs will make two X on that.”
Kant: Poolside, OpenAI, and Anthropic will rival Big Tech in AI
“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”
Vishria: Nvidia will not remain the only major AI infrastructure player
“I don't believe NVIDIA is going to be the only game to have content infrastructure layer.”
Kolter: Training custom AI models from scratch will become economically unviable
“Companies that are right now thinking about training their own models and things like this, and it's just sort of the default that of course you would do this, that this must, won't be an economically viable thing to do. In the future, and so it won't happen a…”
Narayanan: Restricting global access to AI models will fail
“Even if one country decides that models should be closed, the odds of getting every country to enact that kind of, ah, ah, rule are, you know, just vanishingly small. So if our approach to safety with AI is going to be premised on ensuring that quote unquote b…”
Cahn: Tech Giants Will Increasingly Use Off-Balance-Sheet AI Financing
“And so I think one thing that we're going to see more of is off balance sheet financing.”
Mollick: Wharton Generative AI Lab will open-source an AI tutoring system
“And by the way, we've actually built a version of this already at the General of AI Lab at Wharton. We'll be open sourcing all of that, like, that does this kind of stuff.”
Mollick: Major AI companies will inevitably enter custom chipmaking
“Yeah, I mean, the, your requirement in any supply chain pipeline is to eat the value. If you're, you know, like, that's the whole idea of, you know, how those things work. So, like, if the, if you're spending a lot of money on chips, you go into chip making. J…”
Pedro Franceschi intends to take Brex public as CEO
“I definitely want to go through the journey. And I think to realize the potential of Brex I think that's the best path.”
Motamedi predicts SaaS will shift to hybrid seat and work-based pricing
“I think we're going to see hybrid pricing models. Where you're going to layer on to seats the type of work that you're doing for the end user, and you're going to monetize that separately, and that will allow these companies to continue growing inside accounts…”
Sierra expects to scale from hundreds of millions to billions of interactions
“We will in short order be in a way, one of the larger B to C companies. We're doing that via our customers, but you know, we'll, we'll, we're serving hundreds of millions of interactions, right? Soon billions of interactions.”
Matt Clifford: Meta's Llama 4 Will Incorporate New Architectural Ideas Beyond Scaling
“Llama-IV will not just be You know, a bigger Lama three. It will have to be different. It will incorporate new ideas.”
FOMO to Launch Global Access to Equities and Perpetuals
“But we're soon gonna launch globally access to equities and perpetuals non-US obviously.”
O'Driscoll: Figma will IPO soon rather than stay private
“My guess is it totally makes sense for them to get a great IPO under their belt. In a way that, and not do the strike thing of stay private for another three or four years.”
O'Driscoll: Normal years won't yield over 5 exits above $10B
“Really there's not going to be more than four or five, ten billion dollar plus outcomes a year.”
Des Traynor: OpenAI will never build deep vertical industry integrations
“OpenAI is never going to put like five of their engineers going hard on wealth management and like, you know, banking integrations.”
Des Traynor: OpenAI valuation will pass $90B, but Amazon poses risks
“I don't think I would, and the reason, whilst I think they'll pass 90, the areas I'd be wary of is Amazon.”
Levie: OpenAI will become a universal assistant interface across audio, video, and text
“ChatGPT is going to be this universal sort of assistant interaction, you know, interface, and all the, you know, subsequent tools to manage that and interact with different AIs that kind of come together there. And then they're going to have an API business th…”
Levie: AI software and infrastructure spending will eventually outpace human services
“At some point, the actual AI, sort of, the software services of AI, this, the infrastructure services of AI will eventually exceed the human services on the implementation simply because now once it's in production, you don't need that same change management 1…”
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