Disclosure
Sierra deliberately took lower valuations than offered in every funding round
“Every one of our rounds, we actually guided to and took a lower price than we could have.”
Insight
Bavor: Pre-training foundation models is economically unviable for most startups
“The capital expense the ongoing capital expense to create what is effectively a highly perishable bag of floating point numbers just doesn't work. Just doesn't work for any, but a small number of companies.”
Insight
Bavor: US AI labs avoid open-weights models to protect frontier pricing
“I think if you have the US based labs and hyperscalers developing the frontier models. There's an obvious, you know, like, are they going to compete with themselves and drive, you know, price pressure on the frontier models by, you know, developing and releasi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sierra engineers report 3x to 20x productivity boost from AI agents
“We have software engineers who are completely AI-pilled and using Cloud Code, Codex, our own internal agent we call Pinecone that we used to run much of the company on, and they estimate they are between three and 20 times more productive in terms of features …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Top engineers spend over $100K annually on AI tokens
“I have heard and I have observed that top engineers who are really leaning in to cloud code codex and so on are spending more than a 100,000 dollars on a run rate basis on tokens per year.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Bavor: AI token spend will reach 20% of software developer salaries
“I would not bet on 3.8%. I would bet on much closer to 20%. In software engineering, the gains, to me, seem unequivocally there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Enterprise AI will be a duopoly with Sierra in the lead
“My hunch is it will be more like an Uber lift market. And we obviously think we're in the pole position to be the bigger of those two.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Conversational AI agents will inevitably replace websites as primary customer interfaces
“I think there is an inevitability to companies interacting with their customers via really sophisticated agents that capture all that they know and all they can do on behalf of their customers and get the job done on their behalf that handle the complexity as …”
Opinion
Bavor: Chinese AI progress driven by willingness to distill frontier models
“Part of the driver of the difference is probably the willingness of Chinese companies to do scale distillation of the frontier models.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Sierra will not pre-train foundation models, leaving capex to major AI labs
“And we're not, you know, we're not doing our own pre-training. We'll leave the capital expense there to, you know, the labs and the larger companies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Percentage of fully automated enterprise tasks is currently a rounding error
“Well, I think if you look at what percent of enterprise tasks are completely automated today, it's a rounding error, right? It's very low.”
Insight
Bavor: Local AI compute cannot solve server-side hardware bottlenecks
“Oh, it certainly wouldn't alleviate it. I think it will make some consumer applications much better. But, I mean, the reality is you need, you know, petaflops, exaflops of compute, certainly for training, and you want a whole bunch of compute quickly. At infer…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bavor: CFOs will allocate dedicated per-employee AI token budgets
“So I think the direction that we're headed is some amount of Token budgeting on a per employee basis. I think for CFOs in the future, like capital allocation will look more like how do we allocate OpEx and not just OpEx and then headcount and headcount will be…”
Insight
Bavor: Software bottlenecks are moving from writing code to deciding what to build
“It used to be writing code. Now it's probably reviewing code. Pretty soon it will be deciding what is worth building and kind of editing kind of what could exist to what should exist.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Sierra is multiple times larger than its closest startup competitor
“We are at multiple larger multiple larger size than one of our next nearest similar vintage startup competitors growing faster.”
Assertion Supported
Sierra gives engineering candidates $150 in tokens for AI-native interviews
“We completely changed our engineering interview process. So it now looks much more like, here's a very here's a kind of prompt think through an application you would like to build. Cool. Okay. Here's a 150 dollars to spend on choose your coding agent. You can …”
Insight
Bavor: Unbounded demand for frontier AI remains broadly underappreciated
“We have not yet appreciated the unbounded demand for, call it, frontier levels of intelligence.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Sierra's most effective employees are 22- to 23-year-olds
“Some of our most effective employees of the entire company are 22 or 23 years old and have been completely AI-pilled.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bavor: Enterprises will mix open-weights and frontier models based on tasks
“And I think you'll end up with companies using both mixing and matching them depending on the task at hand.”
Opinion
Bavor: OpenAI's o1 model is an underrated AI breakthrough
“And I think actually one of the most underrated developments of the past few years was the O-one model from OpenAI in late 2024, where if you recall, there was a chart that showed, okay, test time, compute, or in amount of inference done, amount of thinking ou…”
Prediction Held up
Bavor predicts dedicated language model hardware in future phones and PCs
“Will you have a language model optimized hardware rolling out in, in our phones, in our computers? Yes.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bavor: 50% of Sierra's enterprise customers generate over $1B revenue
“We work with 40% of the fortune 50. We have 50% of our customers doing over a billion in revenue. We have 30% doing over ten billion in revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bavor personally reviews and approves every single hire at Sierra
“So I, to date review and approve every single hire we make, and I get some help from pine cone and I've basically taught it.”
Disclosure
Bavor built an internal AI strategy partner trained on Sierra board letters
“Sierra brain is it starts with a 20 or 30 page document that grounds any agent in what we are as a company. What we do, how we're organized, our team structure, the competitive landscape, our strengths and weaknesses, all of these things. And then on top of th…”
