Prediction Held up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Wittenborn: Venture capital fund sizes will shrink in coming years

Nico Wittenborn · Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · May 22, 2023 · at 1:00:57

Nico Wittenborn is the founder and solo GP of seed fund Adjacent. He discusses the post-bull-market outlook for venture capital firm structures.

0:00 / 0:06exact quote · 6.6s
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“It's certainly hard to make a blanket statement, but I think that fund sizes will go down.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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Insight
Wittenborn: Macro growth drivers matter far more than execution
“And so I believe that those companies benefit from growth drivers that are much more meaningful than any execution.”
Nico Wittenborn May 22, 2023 ▶ 57:31 Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wittenborn: The US has a higher caliber of venture investors than Europe
“That being said, I've met many more investors that I'm impressed with in the U.S. Than in Europe, right?”
Nico Wittenborn May 22, 2023 ▶ 1:06:30 Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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“And so what Superwall is doing is optimizing paywalls. And so one of the learnings that we have from that is that the number one indicator for driving conversion is how often do you see the paywall, right?”
Nico Wittenborn May 22, 2023 ▶ 20:44 Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Wittenborn: VCs Dislike Consumer Subscription Until Tens of Millions in Revenue
“Because people don't like consumer subscription until it does tens of millions in revenue.”
Nico Wittenborn May 22, 2023 ▶ 32:54 Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
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“The way I think about it from an adjacent perspective is we're going to have companies that are already consumer subscription companies that are implementing this to make their products even more sticky, more functional and give features that were not possible…”
Nico Wittenborn May 22, 2023 ▶ 59:23 Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
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Nico Wittenborn May 22, 2023 ▶ 1:07:22 Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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