Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kant: Tesla will inevitably build the most capable full self-driving AI
“And so to me, Elon has one full self-driving. I think it's inevitable that, that the most capable AI for full self-driving is coming out of Tesla because they've been gathering and building up this data set.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kant: The vast majority of interesting open AI research comes from China
“The research that still gets published openly, right, that doesn't get held back, that is most interesting, is all coming out of China in vast spades and majorities.”
Opinion
Kant: China is not years behind the West in AI progress
“No, I think China is at an incredible level of capabilities and in no way should be discarded or thought of as years behind on AI or AGI progress.”
Disclosure
Kant: Poolside's $500M round is merely an entry ticket to AGI race
“You do not want to look back on that moment and not have given it everything you've got, because it's a race, and the latest five hundred million dollar round translates to us being able to be an entrant into the race.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kant: Full AGI is far off, but specific high-value capabilities will arrive first
“At some point we are going to be in a world where across all sets of capabilities that we have as human beings, Machine intelligence is going to be as capable and if not more capable than us and surpass us. Now, our point of view is, is that that world is stil…”
Insight
Kant: Poolside is generating intermediate developer reasoning data to unlock software AI
“The missing data set in the world to go from where models are today to being as capable as humans at building software is the data set that represents being given the task, all of your intermediate reasoning and thinking, the steps that you do, the code that y…”
Insight
Kant: Data is the real differentiator between competing AI models
“The real differentiation between two models is the data.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kant: Software development will be first domain where AI closes human gap
“Our view of Poolside is that the first majorly economically viable capability that is going to close the gap between human intelligence and machine intelligence is software development.”
Assertion Supported
Kant: Google relies on Broadcom for TPUs while Amazon works with fabs
“Because while Google has to work with Broadcom to be able to bring TPUs into the world, Amazon is working with the fabs directly.”
Assertion Supported
Kant: Neither OpenAI nor Poolside is allowed to train on private code
“But private code, no one's allowed to train on. Not us, not OpenAI. So all of us have access to the same public data.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kant: Interconnecting over 32,000 GPUs is currently extremely challenging
“Today, interconnecting more than 32,000 GPUs is extremely challenging.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kant: $100B is merely the starting price to become an AI hyperscaler
“If you want to become a hyperscaler that is able to put data centers all over the world with GPUs in it that is, that are going to allow you to serve these models to everyone, an infrastructure player, that's probably it. And that's probably just a starting po…”
Insight
Eiso Kant: Capital scales AI compute directly, but not talent or data
“What we are going to find is that for compute, dollars have a direct one-on-one effect. But when we look at data, when we look at proprietary applied research, and we look at talent, It is not as straightforward as dollars in magic, you know, success out on th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kant: Very few capable frontier AI startups remain available for acquisition
“I think there's very few left to be acquired, to be very honest.”
Prediction Held up
Kant: Poolside, OpenAI, and Anthropic will rival Big Tech in AI
“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”
Insight
Kant: Unlike normal startups, building AGI is a direct competitive race
“Most startups are not racist. Most startups are against your, yourself. But AGI is a race, and so our view always has been, is that the team that we build is a team that is deeply passionate to be in that race”
Insight
Kant: AI value will accumulate across the stack, not just model layer
“Because I agree with you that the value is not going to only accumulate at the model layer. It's going to accumulate all the way to the end user.”
Opinion
Kant: Only global conflict disrupting chip supply could halt AI progress
“Global conflict that disrupts the supply chain of chips.”
Assertion Supported
Kant: Internet has 3T usable code tokens vs 15T English text tokens
“Usable code for training is what we refer to as about three trillion tokens. And if you look at kind of usable language in English on the internet for training, we're talking about anywhere between 10 and 15 trillion tokens. There's a massive amount of code th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kant: Poolside runs world's largest code AI training environment with 130,000 codebases
“We put it in an environment, say it's an environment with a 130,000 real world code bases, several orders of magnitude, the largest environment in the world.”
Insight
Kant: New Nvidia Blackwell GPUs do not force immediate training cluster upgrades
“The Blackwell generation for us from a training perspective doesn't unlock anything new. It just means that we have to, we can do more with a certain set of chips. My H 200 become less valuable in the world, but it does not necessarily mean I have to go upgrad…”
Disclosure
Kant: Poolside deliberately excluded Google, Microsoft, and Amazon from $500M round
“If look at our capital raise, our last five hundred million dollar round, you'll see that there's none of the big hyperscalers, Google, Microsoft, you know, Amazon were part of the round.”
Disclosure
NVIDIA participated in Poolside's funding round without taking an outsized stake
“There is one corporate that became part of our round, and that was very deliberate, was NVIDIA. Not in an outsized stake manner at all. And it's because we collaborate really closely with them On, you know, the next generation of their chips, on the software a…”
Assertion Supported
Kant: xAI built a 100,000 GPU cluster in Tennessee in mere months
“They built a 100,000 GPU, three, 32 K interconnected clusters in Tennessee in the span of months, and XAI showed up with Elon's strength, the ability to build physical infrastructure incredibly fast in the world.”
