Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Vibe coding will become software's largest category, swallowing traditional SaaS
“I felt like in my eyes, this is going to be the largest category in, in software industry. Cause a lot of like existing categories that we're familiar with. And CRM and support systems and task management and project management and stuff like that are going to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Building custom CRMs via AI will soon beat buying Salesforce licenses
“And there would be a time, it might be in a few months, might be in a few years, where it will be easier to build your own Salesforce type of CRM than to actually buy a license to something off the shelf.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: SaaS companies requiring implementers will not survive the decade
“I think every software company that needs implementers, right, there's like a Salesforce implementer or whatever maybe in a decade from now is not going to make it.”
Opinion
Shlomo: AI software building is not a winner-take-all market
“Software building as a category is gonna grow insanely fast. I think our notion from the previous age of venture capital where a winner takes it all is wrong. And I think this category is going to be so big that everybody will take a niche at some point.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Anthropic has better models and growth trajectory than OpenAI
“Moving faster. They correct something in coding. They're very focused on delivering value to B to B customers of, they don't have the first mover advantage, but I think they have better models. And when they look at their trajectory they're better positioned f…”
Insight
Shlomo: AI enables tiny teams to create immense value with fewer people
“If one person team can get sold for eighty million dollars without people, it means that you'll be able to do a lot more stuff with less people.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Joining Wix tripled Base44's odds of success over VC funding
“It was either I raise a lot of money and a lot of funding, or I go and join Wix that basically triples my chances at actually building something special.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: AI will eliminate moatless CRM companies, but Salesforce can adapt
“Smaller CRM companies, every software that's basically front end on top of a database with some team features and some integrations and does not have a moat. And I think Salesforce is so big and so massive that this is like, this is one of their moats. Like th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: AI tools building simple front-ends and landing pages will commoditize
“I think early on, the vibe coding category was focused a lot and still is, to some degree, on Like front-end and landing pages where many use cases were on, like websites or e-commerce websites and stuff like that. I think this will get commoditized for the ca…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Platforms building full SaaS apps will resist AI commoditization
“But for the functional stuff and the complex applications, the organizational applications, the personal applications, the full fully fledged SaaS platforms that people are building, I think they won't get commoditized.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Base44 is not worried about rivals Lovable, Replit, or Bolt
“I'm not worried about those three.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Google is most likely to win the LLM race
“Google. By far. They have the compute. They're moving very fast. If Gemini at some point wins the race, like literally wins the race then they have the entire stack. Including like Google Cloud and whatever, whatever they need and they have the data and whatev…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2027
Shlomo: AI foundation model prices will drop toward zero
“We're taking into consideration that the prices of model will go down towards zero.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Margins for AI coding platforms will improve drastically
“I don't think current margins are bad, but I think they're going to get way better.”
Insight
Shlomo: AI apps can fix low margins by training proprietary models post-distribution
“Kerser came out, I think it was two weeks ago, or maybe a few weeks ago with their own model, right? Composer. And this is like an, a nice way to like think about strategy of those types of businesses. So think about Kelsa, right? I don't know how the margins …”
Disclosure
Shlomo: Passed on AI agent startups like Manus over commoditization fears
“I had the opportunity to invest in like this agent companies, right? Like the Manus, the, those folks. I don't like, I felt like, I don't know the industry good enough to understand if at some point this would get commoditized by the model companies. And so th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: The AI industry will not hit a progress speed bump
“Me personally, I don't believe we'll hit a speed bump. I think even with existing models, I don't think also we'll hit like a wall with like the improvements of LLMs, but I think even with existing models, we're only scratching the surface of economic value th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: 95% to 100% of code will be AI-written in two years
“95%. Or a hundred percent, for sure. It's like, ah, you'll be prompting agents.”
Prediction Held up
Shlomo: AI model market will not be winner-take-all
“It's like, either it's not going to be one winner takes it all. And there's going to be like more and more companies getting into this market. It's going to be like the Chinese players that are now like changing the entire market dynamics.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Developers will stick with Claude Code over superior models
“Like, even if now Gemini three comes out and it's a better model than Cloud and so on, then still there's gonna be a huge number of people staying with CloudCode because they're used to it and they built some things up the stack.”
Opinion
Shlomo: Profit margins are the least concerning issue in AI software
“From all things in the industry, I think the margins are the least thing that I'm worried about.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Base44 will fine-tune open-source models on billions of code lines
“And I think this is a really interesting strategy that we're also thinking internally is, like, go as fast as you can with the frontier models. At some point, open source becomes really a viable option to maybe fine tune on, like, the billions, almost trillion…”
Opinion
Shlomo: AI startups relying primarily on prompt engineering lack defensible moats
“If most of the value Is on the way they prompt the application for a certain thing. Like they've built, let's say a photo editor. And so there's not a lot of features in a photo, like an AI based, like you feed a picture and say, okay, make me, I don't know, m…”
Opinion
Shlomo: Operating outside Silicon Valley does not hurt tech startups
“I don't think in any way, no business is hurting. If anything I think the war on talent is really tough in Silicon Valley.”
