Mark Suster
Managing Partner, Upfront Ventures · 3 appearances on the record.
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Mark Suster is a Managing Partner at Upfront Ventures, where he leads early-stage investments in software and emerging technology. Before becoming a venture capitalist, he founded and sold two enterprise software companies, including Koral, which was acquired by Salesforce.
76statements → 29claims → 14claims resolved → 36%fully supported → 4.04/5average certainty → 2.21/5average debate potential → 4.4/5argument clarity · the sources → 82said about them ↓
5 supported 4 partly supported 5 contradicted 5 not yet assessed 10 not checkable as stated how the 29 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
16 predictions · 13 assertions · 3 opinions · 23 insights · 21 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 29 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 14 are resolved, 5 are not yet assessed, and 10 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Mark argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →
4.4 / 5
directness 4.4 · coherence 4.6 ·
precision 4.5 · compression 3.8
redirected or did not address 4 of 38 assessed questions (11%). Watch them ▸
This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →
How they sound: speaking style how? →
228 words/min while actually speaking · 11.5 um and uh per 1k words · 4.8 false starts per 1k · 22% of pauses land inside a clause
Measured by listening to the audio itself: 12,965 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →
How the interview went all their pushback → series average →
Across 3 rated episodes:
host pushback ▾ 3.7/10
setup questions received 45%
host pushback: the hardest questions Harry asked, tap to play ▶ 37:23“Do you not think everyone, though, sees that? Like, given the cadence of spin-outs from SpaceX and the amount of funding that's gone in, it's not really a contrarian thesis, is it?” ▶ 42:38“Respectfully, anyone who comes out of a great company now raises five on 25 from Andreessen. How do you do 11 or 12, and does that mean that you're getting different founders?” ▶ 10:13“And so actually do lemons really ripen early with LPs actually being scared to get off the fence.” ▶ 36:05“Do you not find the days of 20% ownership relatively over?” ▶ 15:22“Do you believe that this open for business, maybe marketing stance is true?” ▶ 10:35“Is survival the next milestone, or do we still need to see that growth to get to the A in your mind?”
when Mark pushed back ▶ 45:29“I'll just disagree.” ▶ 42:55“I don't agree with the premise. I don't believe that everyone raises five on 25 from Andreessen.” ▶ 13:37“Well, there are things we do know already, Harry. So I want to make that clear, which is we know already the size of the shift away from marketing dollars and ad dollars, for examp…” ▶ 36:17“Yes. In fact, I think it'll go up from 20%, not down.”
Everything Mark Suster said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Suster: VCs settled with embezzling founder, getting equity but zero cash
“It's one step worse than that, which is, I know of a company in which the founder embezzled money. Ok, literally stole millions of dollars. In order to not end up in a big legal battle, their VCs ended up settling, and they got all the stock back, but none of …”
Suster: SoftBank, Tiger, Coatue, and Insight marked 60% of 2021-2022 unicorns
“Of the 1260% were marked by four firms, ok? SoftBank, Tiger, Coachu, and Insight.”
Suster: Investors entering generative AI from 2023-2025 won't see strong returns
“So if you're betting on generative AI for the first time in 23, 24, 25, good luck making returns.”
Suster predicts party rounds will perform worst over the next three years
“And party rounds did incredibly well. For the last five years, but I suspect party rounds are going to do the worst for the next three years, because getting conviction across three or four small investors that each own seven, eight, nine, 10% of your company …”
Suster: Founders should avoid demo days and batch fundraising hype
“Like, you've got one company, and there's no divorce clause from investors, so I really think entrepreneurs need to take the time to get to know their investors, which is why I'm not a big proponent of demo days, or overhyping your company, or Waiting to meet …”
Mark Suster: 2021 tech overvaluations were worse than dot-com bubble
“1998, 99, 2000 are nothing compared to the overvaluations of twenty-twenty-one.”
Mark Suster: Venture market correction will take another five years
“So we're two years into a correction. I think it's going to take another five.”
Suster: Tech industry will see many more startup frauds exposed
“You're already seeing it, you know, we're reading about it, like, almost monthly in the press. Yes, you're gonna see a lot more of it.”
Upfront Ventures sold $1.2B in secondary positions during 2021 peak
“We sold 1.2 billion dollars worth of positions in 2021. When everyone was writing crazy checks, I sold six hundred million dollars that year.”
Suster: Private equity buyouts and secondaries will drive future venture capital returns
“Where, where are returns going to come from? They're going to come from private equity. So private equity firms are going to step in and buy assets from venture capital funds. They will either buy A company or they will buy secondary.”
Suster: 1,000 startups funded in 2021-2022 will never exit at $1B+
“Of the 1221 and 22 that were funded, my guess is a thousand of them will never achieve an exit value of a billion dollars or more.”
Suster: Upfront generated $1.4B from six hard-to-fund, capital-efficient startups
“On average of our companies that take longer and that we had reserves for. On average, it took six years to raise a growth round. Okay. But those companies by definition are more capital efficient because they didn't have access to it. I have six deals that fi…”
Suster: Fast-growing startup rejected $350M acquisition offer before crashing to $0
“And then I had one big company that was incredibly fast growing is the fastest growing company I had ever seen. And so I piled money into it and it ended up being a zero. We had an offer to sell the company for three hundred and fifty million dollars. Founder …”
Founders will need four times more VC meetings to raise capital
“It might take four times more VC meetings to get one check than it did only three months ago, but prepare for probably the hardest economic environment of any of our lifetimes, not just yours if you're a younger founder, but of anyone alive today.”
Mature startups facing cash crises will be hardest to refinance
“So when we're looking at companies, we're looking at bright-eyed, bushy-tailed, we're going to build this for the next 10 years, we're in the first six to 18 months of our journey, as opposed to a company been around for six years and suddenly finds itself in …”
VC fundraising will be harder from 2020 to 2025
“I suspect it's going to be harder to raise funds for the next five years than it was for the last five.”
Pay-to-play provisions have returned to venture capital deal structures
“It doesn't come back. It is back. It's back. Pay to play is on the table.”
Suster predicts lead VC ownership targets will rise above 20%
“Yes. In fact, I think it'll go up from 20%, not down.”
Suster warns fashionable tech market creates excess capital and non-entrepreneurs
“I think we've returned to a moment where startups and Silicon Valley and tech have become fashionable, and everyone wants to do it, which means you're gonna have too many companies, too much money, and too many people who aren't truly entrepreneurs, kind of cl…”
Suster: Entrepreneurship does not pay off economically for most founders
“I think it's stressful, it's hard, it leads a lot of people to depression, and conflict, and stress, and for most people it doesn't even pay off economically. And so if you're going to dedicate yourself to it, you sure as hell better love the product concept o…”
Suster: Rejections come quickly in fundraising while commitments take months
“I used to tell people about fundraising, which is lemons ripen early. And what do I mean by that? So if you go ask 30 people for money, five or 10 of them are going to tell you no quickly because no's come quickly and the yes's take months.”
Suster: Venture fund managers should pitch the smallest viable fund target
“Put the smallest number on the front of your pitch deck that you're possibly raising.”
The other half of the tape: Mark Suster's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 77 times in 47 episodes on 20VC. 5 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 41Miles Dieffenbach 4Parker Thompson 3Kara Nortman 3Samir Kaji 2Sam Corcos 2Rob Go 2Nav Athwal 2
Statements about Mark Suster, by other people (5)
Mark Suster's 'always be raising' advice distracts founders from execution
“There is a headset that has become the norm, which is always be raising. I don't know if that's always right. I think it's where we are, but I don't think that's necessarily the right thing for all founders. I think it's often very distracting and very, and ma…”
Mark Suster Aggressively Sold Portfolio Stakes During the 2021 Market Peak
“Mark Suster, I give him all the credit in the world. He's been in the game for a long time and upfront. He saw 20, 21 as an insane period. And he strip sailed like majority of his portfolios and his funds. For a very good price. DPI in the pocket. Like I, all …”
Kim: Party rounds are the absolute worst early-stage financing structure
“Now, the absolute worst scenario, and Mark Suster actually talks about it in his recent post on both sides of the table, are these party rounds. I don't think these party rounds are happening as often, but these party rounds are where 20 plus individuals, you …”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
2025 4 mentions in 1 episode
2024 10 mentions in 6 episodes 2 per episode
- Jason Lemkin: PluralSight S*** the Bed & The Next IPO Candidates | E1160 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Jason Citron, Co-Founder/CEO @Discord: The Untold Story Behind Scaling to 200M Users | E1230 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- David Frankel, MP @Founder Collective: Investing Lessons from Seeding Coupang, Pillpack & Suno|E1214 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Michael Eisenberg: How China Could Overtake the US in the AI Race | E1167 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Dan Siroker: Second-Time Founders Are More Investable & Why Not To Hire People Out of College |E1153 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Ryan Akkina: How MIT Builds Their Venture Fund Portfolio & How MIT Approach Direct Investing | E1109 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- every mention in 2024, scene by scene →
2023 6 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
- Sam Corcos: Why Founders Should Take as Many VC Meetings as Possible | E1093 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Rob Go: The Ultimate Guide to Raising a Venture Fund | E1029 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Chris Paik: How I Raised $400M; Substack's Broken Business Model; Music on TikTok vs IG | E1011 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- David Tisch: The 3 Most Important Variables When Raising Your Seed Round | 20VC #983 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- every mention in 2023, scene by scene →
2022 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode
2018 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
- 20VC: The Mindset The Best Investors Assume When Assessing Opportunities, Why So Many Hardware Startups Fail Today & The Right Way To Think About Employee Retention with Andrew Farah, Founder & CEO @ Density
- 20VC: Why Vulnerability Is A Strength In VC, 3 Core Components That Make The Most Successful VCs & How VCs and Entrepreneurs Can Build Meaningful Relationships Pre-Investment with Brian Garrett, Founding Partner @ Crosscut Ventures
- 20VC: LinkedIn's Head of Corp Dev on Why and When Startups Should Start Relationship Building With Corp Dev, What The Structure of M&A Traditionally Looks Like & How To Mitigate The Biggest Risk of M&A, Integration Risk
- every mention in 2018, scene by scene →
2017 6 mentions in 5 episodes 1 per episode
- 20VC: Why Founders Should Not Focus On Top Line Valuation, Why Capital Efficiency Is Key To Returns And Investment Success & Why Despite Popular Thought, $100m Is An Exciting Exit For VC with Micah Rosenbloom, Managing Partner @ Founder Collective
- 20VC: Accel GP, Rich Wong on When Is The Right Time To Scale A Startup, Optimising Initial vs Follow-On Investment Decision-Making & The Globalisation of VC In Recent Years
- 20VC: What Does It Take To Raise A Venture Fund Today, An Analysis of The Explosion of Seed Financing & Why IRR No Longer Takes Centre Stage with Samir Kaji, Senior Managing Director @ First Republic Bank
- 20VC: Jason Calacanis on The 4 Questions Investors Must Ask Founders, Whether YC Have Scaled Their Process Successfully & Why Early Founder Liquidity Is Good Not Bad
- 20VC: How Startups & VCs Can Build Relationships with Potential Corporate Acquirers? The Challenge Of Operating Both A B2B & B2C Business Model & Why Fundraising Is The One Element Founders Cannot Control with Gautam Gupta, Founder & CEO @ NatureBox
- every mention in 2017, scene by scene →
2016 38 mentions in 20 episodes 2 per episode
- 20VC: How To Assess Founder Psychology, Why Talking About Financial Returns In The First Meeting Is Always Wrong & How To Allocate Time Amongst A VC Portfolio with Kara Nortman, Partner @ Upfront Ventures
- 20VC: Upfront Ventures' Greg Bettinelli on Testing For Founder 'Grit' & What It Takes To Build A Successful Consumer Brand Today
- 20VC: Rob Go @ NextView on WTF Is Seed Investing Today and Why Raising Too Much Money Can Harm Your Startup
- 20VC: AngelList's Parker Thompson on How He Evaluates Startup Founders & Why The Move To Series A Is Harder Than Ever?
- 20VC: Why Market Is More Important Than Team, The 4 Key Roles of A Board Member & Why Founders Get Market Sizing So Wrong with Rory O'Driscoll, Founding Partner @ Scale Venture Partners
- 20VC: Why Adaptability Is Key To Fundraising, Why Supply Is Always The First Priority In Marketplaces & Why Sometimes You Have To Hire Fast & Fire Fast with Nav Athwal, Founder & CEO @ RealtyShares
- 20VC: X.ai's Dennis Mortensen on Why There Is No Incumbency Advantage in Artificial Intelligence
- 20VC FF: Hiten Shah on VC Funded vs Bootstrapped Businesses and How He Decides Which Startups To Advise
- 12 more episodes that year, every mention in 2016 →
2015 6 mentions in 5 episodes 1 per episode
- 20 VC 083: 500 Startups Week: New Funds, Startup Mentoring and Dave's Masterplan with Marvin Liao, Partner @ 500 Startups
- 20 VC 093: Where Is The Micro VC Market Going with Samir Kaji @ First Republic Bank
- 20 VC FF 021: From TechCrunch to Founder to TechCrunch with the legend, Steve O'Hear
- 20 VC FF 20: Shaking Up The Food Industry With Willie Biggart @ Spoonfed
- FF 013: 'Make Bets And Believe In What You Are Doing' with James Borow @ Shift & Brand Networks
- every mention in 2015, scene by scene →
Appearances (3)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC | May 1, 2024 | 44m |
| 20VC: Upfront's Mark Suster on COVID Redefining What A Great Company Looks Like and What V | Apr 20, 2020 | 35m |
| 20 VC 085: Mark Suster @ Upfront Ventures on Being A Super Entrepreneur Driven VC | Nov 4, 2015 | 20m |