O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year
Rory O'Driscoll · Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings · Jun 18, 2026 · at 38:10
Rory O'Driscoll is a General Partner at Scale. Following regulatory scrutiny over Anthropic's Claude Fable model, Harry Stebbings asks if Anthropic will still go public in 2026.
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“I mean, statistically, more than 50%, yes, because in a world where this doesn't get solved for four or five months, there's so many other problems that our heads are gonna hurt, right? So you have to say, if a problem, in a world where it does get solved, then yes, they should go public. So still statistics, but obviously, if you're, again, I'm just a simple Bayesian, if your prior before was 90% plus, which it should be, because we've just seen a stellar reception To a company that, even though it was called SpaceX, turns out that the vast majority of the market is in AI, as Lisa, they frame it now. He's just seen that have a stellar reception. You'd be pretty much of an idiot to see SpaceX trading 2.4 trillion, and to say, as the board of Antropic, let's hold on for a better market. Of course, so your prior should be they're going public with a 90% certainty, so this thing is a significant wrinkle, and they're going to have to work through it, so it lowers the probability, but still way more than 50%, because they'd be crazy not to.”
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