Anthropic

includes Anthropic API, Anthropic Claude

443 statements across 154 episodes · 225 bullish · 113 bearish · 91 people on the record · first statement Jun 14, 2023 by Rishi Sunak · said 2,231 times in 247 episodes since 2023 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Harry Stebbings (1114), Rory O'Driscoll (180), Jason Lemkin (172), Aravind Srinivas (22), Jason Calacanis (16), Byron Deeter (15), Matt Murphy (13), Hemant Taneja (13)

tap a year for its mentions
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0751502023202420252026episodes it came up in
007.575151502023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 1,466 mentions in 98 episodes 15 per episode
2025 658 mentions in 108 episodes 6 per episode
2024 78 mentions in 31 episodes 3 per episode
2023 29 mentions in 10 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Anthropic, oldest first

Jun 14, 2023 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Sunak: a16z, Palantir, OpenAI, and Anthropic are establishing UK offices
“Andreessen Horowitz, you know, all the world's most successful VC investors opening their first international office here in the UK. And that just comes on the back of Palantir saying that they're going to do their AI headquarters for research here in the UK. …”
Rishi Sunak Jun 14, 2023 ▶ 5:38 Rishi Sunak: The UK's New High Potential Visa; Rishi's £100M AI Task Force | E1025 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 14, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Sunak: DeepMind, Anthropic, and OpenAI agreed to grant UK early model access
“We're working with the companies themselves, DeepMind, Anthropic and OpenAI. I'm pleased that they've said that they will give early or priority access to the models.”
Rishi Sunak Jun 14, 2023 ▶ 0:14 Rishi Sunak: The UK's New High Potential Visa; Rishi's £100M AI Task Force | E1025 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 30, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Douwe Kiela: OpenAI and Anthropic are the Lycos and AltaVista of AI
“So if all the stars align, then OpenAI and Anthropic and all of these places, they had this great first generation technology. So they're kind of like the Lycos and Alta Vista of search engines. And the technology we have is more like PageRank. And that would …”
Douwe Kiela Jun 30, 2023 ▶ 53:20 Douwe Kiela: Why Data Size Matters More Than Model Size; Why Open Source Isn't Going to Win | E1032 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 30, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Douwe Kiela: Anthropic and OpenAI are consumer-facing companies chasing AGI
“So if you look at anthropic and open AI, I think they're really chasing for this idea of AGI and they're relatively consumer facing.”
Douwe Kiela Jun 30, 2023 ▶ 14:14 Douwe Kiela: Why Data Size Matters More Than Model Size; Why Open Source Isn't Going to Win | E1032 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Velez: Foundational LLMs like OpenAI are just basic infrastructure
“I see the existing LLMs, the open AI, the Entropic as sort of basic infrastructure.”
David Vélez Sep 11, 2023 ▶ 48:27 David Velez: How AI Changes The Future of Finance | E1059 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kleinerman: Seven-person startups can match OpenAI and Anthropic for specific uses
“We've seen companies that with Seven employees have creating models that are comparable for some use cases to what OpenAI or Anthropic do.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 16:47 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Kleinerman: OpenAI and Anthropic are effectively research companies, not software platforms
“Probably the opening eyes and Anthropics are continuing their innovation, which those are effectively research companies.”
Christian Kleinerman Sep 22, 2023 ▶ 20:04 Christian Kleinerman: Do OpenAI and Anthropic Have a Sustaining Moat? Who Wins the AI Wars? | E1063 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Amazon could acquire Anthropic and integrate it into AWS EC2
“I could see Amazon just like flat up like buying Anthropic and being like, let's just make this part of the EC two cluster. And that's just a very easy route to market.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 40:10 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 15, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Traynor: VC capital in AI startups mostly passes straight to OpenAI
“Giving a dollar to a startup is just a lossy way of giving it to OpenAI or Anthropic or whoever, because, you know, that's who they're basically taking it and shining it up and handing it onto.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 27:03 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 24, 2023 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Traynor: Amazon could outright acquire Anthropic to integrate into AWS EC2
“I'd be wary of Amazon. So like I could see Amazon just like Flat up like buying Anthropic and being like, let's just make this part of the EC two cluster.”
Des Traynor Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 29:41 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 4, 2024 bullish
Assertion Open
Anthropic reached over $200M in annual revenue before Menlo's $1B investment
“People sort of just a few weeks ago made fun of Memo and putting, you know, whatever, a billion into Anthropic, but if they're doing 200 and something million in one year, it doesn't seem like such a bad deal, does it?”
Jason Lemkin Jan 4, 2024 ▶ 51:48 Jason Lemkin: Predictions for 2024 - What Does a Trump Administration do for Startups? | E1099 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 3, 2024 negative
Disclosure
Stebbings: Prefers Legacy Sectors Over Competing With AI Giants
“For me, it's like a non-competitive industry. I never want to compete against fucking Sam Altman doing foundation models and Dario from Anthropic and Satya at Microsoft. I want, like, legacy architecture. I want, like, high pricing power. I want really, really…”
Harry Stebbings Apr 3, 2024 ▶ 14:08 Trae Stephens: Why No Company is Successful Because of their VC | E1135 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 29, 2024 negative
Opinion
Mensch: Cloud investments in AI startups resemble round-tripping
“It looks like around flipping. Yes. I don't know about that deal particularly, but it makes sense from both perspectives.”
Arthur Mensch Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 24:23 Arthur Mensch: Open vs Closed - Who Wins and Mistral's Position | E1146 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 8, 2024 negative
Insight
Hulme: AGI hype correlates directly with founders' capital fundraising needs
“I think there is a Correlation between how aggressively people predict AGI is coming and how much capital they need to raise. So you've got Emodi from Anthropic, you've got Altman, OpenAI, Musk, XAI, all of these guys are saying that it's just around the corne…”
Tom Hulme May 8, 2024 ▶ 1:11:38 Tom Hulme: Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 275x on Robinhood & Making Billions on Uber |E1150 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024 positive
Opinion
Srinivas: Anthropic is algorithmically superior to OpenAI
“Anthropic because they're algorithmically a superior company. Like they got whatever open AI got to with lower capital. They have better post training and like things like that.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 26:21 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Srinivas: OpenAI and Anthropic will not get acquired
“I think with OpenAI and Anthropic, the value of the value of those companies is not in the models they have. That is a very first-order approximation. I think the second-order approximation is it's in the machine that's building the machine. That specific grou…”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 28:11 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024
Disclosure
Srinivas: Majority of Perplexity's spent capital goes toward compute
“We have not spent a lot of money. What are, I'm, it's not like most of cash we raised has already gone away to compute, no. But what I'm saying is, whatever money we spent, Majority of it has gone to compute. I don't have the exact percentage, but majority is …”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 49:13 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2024 negative
Opinion
Srinivas: Competing with OpenAI on base models is a terrible arena
“If there are companies that are working on Foundation model competitor to OpenAI. It is definitely like one of the worst arenas to be part of. Almost like I think there are five men standing today sort of thing. Google, and Anthropic, Meta Mistral, and you can…”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 5, 2024 ▶ 22:50 Aravind Srinivas:Will Foundation Models Commoditise & Diminishing Returns in Model Performance|E1161 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 5, 2024
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Cahn: Tech Giants Will Avoid Full Acquisitions of Major AI Labs
“I think that will probably sustain because it's not really possible to acquire these businesses. Now you can acquire the smaller ones, and we've seen that with Inflection and Adept, you can acquire some of the teams, but it's going to be much more difficult to…”
David Cahn Aug 5, 2024 ▶ 26:34 David Cahn: Why Servers, Steel and Power Are the Pillars Powering the Future of AI | E1186 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Narayanan: OpenAI focuses on products as researchers depart to Anthropic
“Folks focused on superintelligence didn't feel very welcome at the company, and there has been an exodus of very prominent people, and Anthropic has picked up a lot of them. So it seems like we're seeing a split emerging where OpenAI is more focused on product…”
Arvind Narayanan Aug 28, 2024 ▶ 22:49 Arvind Narayanan: AI Scaling Myths, The Core Bottlenecks in AI Today & The Future of Models | E1195 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Kant: Poolside, OpenAI, and Anthropic will rival Big Tech in AI
“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”
Eiso Kant Oct 7, 2024 ▶ 53:29 Eiso Kant, CTO @Poolside: Raising $600M To Compete in the Race for AGI | E1211 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 28, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Khachab: Anthropic is a better investment than OpenAI due to higher revenue
“So I'm not sure if these numbers are right, but I recently read that Anthropic is more or less doing 60% of the revenue of OpenAI, and they do this with less customers, so they kind of achieve a higher price point, probably. Plus the recent release of computer…”
Daniel Khachab Oct 28, 2024 ▶ 16:21 Daniel Khachab: "We Are in the Middle of a Cold War for AI Talent" | E1220 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 4, 2024 positive
Opinion
Altman: Anthropic has built an impressive AI model that excels at coding
“Yeah, they have a model that is great at coding for sure. And it's impressive work.”
Sam Altman Nov 4, 2024 ▶ 23:52 Sam Altman: What Startups Will be Steamrolled by OpenAI & Where is Opportunity | E1223 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 29, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Podjarny: Anthropic offers better investment value than OpenAI or xAI
“I think I go Anthropic. I feel generally the, it still holds to the quality of the team or maybe you know, the stability of the team and their opportunity to grow. And yeah, the value arbitrage is is still hard.”
Guy Podjarny Nov 29, 2024 ▶ 23:59 Guy Podjarny: The Future of AI Software Development - What is Real & What is BS | E1232 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 9, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Benioff Passes on OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI Over Product Commoditization
“I don't know if I'd really want to invest in any of them right now because I think in those cases we're seeing all of them to being about the same kind of product. A lot of them are really becoming the same Technology.”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 17:33 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 9, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Benioff: Salesforce Has Invested in Anthropic, Mistral, and Cohere
“We also use a lot of other models. We change that on a regular basis, and we've invested in a lot of model companies, including Anthropic and Mistral and Cohere and many Many of them.”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 15:41 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Dines: Anthropic at $40B valuation has bigger upside than OpenAI at $160B
“Probably anthropic... I think the upside is bigger.”
Daniel Dines Dec 18, 2024 ▶ 1:04:28 Daniel Dines, UiPath CEO & Founder: Why Agents Do Not Mean RPA is F*** | E1240 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 10, 2025 negative
Insight
Shulman: Scaling laws will not solve AI music generation
“For music, It's very different from text, and I think people will very sloppily look at the world of OpenAI and Anthropic and the hyperscalers and say audio is just a couple years behind, which it is, but that scale is gonna solve all these things. But unlike …”
Mikey Shulman Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 2:21 Mikey Shulman, CEO @Suno: The Future of Music, What is Gonna Happen? | E1244 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Riparbelli: xAI has more asymmetric upside than OpenAI or Anthropic
“I actually think I would do X. I think they're all great companies. I would do X because I think there, there's the most asymmetric upside if Elon delivers what he usually does. And I mean, we've all heard of some of the, like, that data set that he built, lik…”
Victor Riparbelli Jan 15, 2025 ▶ 24:15 Victor Riparbelli, CEO @Synthesia: OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai - Who Wins and Why | E1246 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2025
Disclosure
Riparbelli: Synthesia is shifting some workloads from OpenAI to Anthropic and Gemini
“We're most using OpenAI... We've shifted some workloads to Anthropic. We're also using Gemini actually.”
Victor Riparbelli Jan 15, 2025 ▶ 33:13 Victor Riparbelli, CEO @Synthesia: OpenAI vs Anthropic vs X.ai - Who Wins and Why | E1246 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Switching cloud providers costs startups $10M-$20M, unlike AI models
“I can switch models readily. Like, I think there's even entire businesses now There will be an entire industry of being able to switch models from OpenAI to Anthropic when OpenAI goes down, but just to switch clouds is like, you know, for any, like, substantia…”
George Sivulka Jan 22, 2025 ▶ 45:03 George Sivulka, Co-Founder & CEO @Hebbia: The Future of Foundation Models | E1250 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: xAI could overtake OpenAI and Anthropic in valuation within two years
“I think XAI is the most undervalued company, and a really spicy take. I actually think XAI might overtake OpenAI and Anthropic in value over the next, you know, 12 to 24 months.”
George Sivulka Jan 22, 2025 ▶ 45:44 George Sivulka, Co-Founder & CEO @Hebbia: The Future of Foundation Models | E1250 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 3, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Hyatt: We invested in Anthropic because capital isn't the only AI moat
“If we had believed that only capital was going to win, Then we would not have invested in Anthropic, because you know, surely Sam was telling us and everybody else, like, we're going to win the capital game. The capital game is the only way to win, and so ther…”
Nabeel Hyatt Feb 3, 2025 ▶ 51:27 Nabeel Hyatt, GP @ Spark Capital: To Win in AI, Investors Need to Change Their Approach | E1255 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 10, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Anthropic Lags OpenAI Due to Model-Only Focus
“There's a reason why Anthropic hasn't done as well because it operates sort of at The model level. It's all of the additional things that go into ChatGPD that I think has staying power.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 0:23 Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO @Snowflake: Deepseek is Not a Threat to OpenAI & OpenAI Beats Anthropic|E1258 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 10, 2025 positive
Opinion
Ramaswamy: OpenAI and Anthropic Lead AI; Google Gemini Is Fast Follow
“It's OpenAI and Anthropic that have created the best models on the planet for the last three years. It's not Microsoft. It's not Amazon. It's not Google. It looks like, you know, Gemini is good, but let's face it, it's at best a fast follow.”
Sridhar Ramaswamy Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 25:29 Sridhar Ramaswamy, CEO @Snowflake: Deepseek is Not a Threat to OpenAI & OpenAI Beats Anthropic|E1258 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krieger: Top AI models will require both human and synthetic data
“So I think it absolutely has to be a mix. And I think the best models will come from that combination of great, like for code it's, you know, being, having good foundational understanding of code and good examples, but then also being able to explore a really …”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 14:20 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Krieger: Internal dogfooding of Claude Code directly improved Claude 3.7 Sonnet
“As a really, you know, specific example with cloud code within, you know, a week of it being deployed internally, we had found a way in which one of the sort of tools that it has access to the model wasn't using as well as it could have, and that made its way …”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 49:00 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025
Insight
Krieger: Creating multi-step task environments is the main AI blocker
“Figuring out how we better either break that down into component parts, which is probably part of the story, but also think about it holistically is the biggest blocker to at least one slice of progress, which is how do models go from being extremely good at e…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 12:38 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic product team is roughly 10% of total workforce
“Cause our team for all of Anthropic being big, you know, I think we crossed a thousand people. Our product team is, you know, maybe a 10th of that.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 38:21 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Krieger: Anthropic is focusing on agentic tools, not building an IDE
“So when I think about the coding space and where we can play and add value, it really is on the agentic side. It's not on the ID side.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 43:04 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Opinion
Krieger: OpenAI lags Anthropic in product personality and cohesion
“Probably personality and having the features they build be cohesive.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 53:18 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic is heavily focused on AI for office professionals
“We think a lot about office professionals at Anthropic in terms of one of the use cases that, you know, is going to be potentially really multiplied by these models in the future. Nobody's really evaluating that.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 11:48 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Krieger: German data privacy standards shape Anthropic's product design
“Even as we think about doing our product design and data privacy and, you know, selling to German users or German companies, there's a different set of questions that get asked that are often very helpful questions.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 59:50 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anthropic locked Claude 3.7 Sonnet blog post hours before launch
“We were cloud three, seven sonnet. We launched on Monday and we locked the blog post for that. Sunday night at nine PM, which is not best practice from a marketing perspective. You know, we were briefing press that day on Sunday.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 23:45 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Krieger: Most of Anthropic's best product ideas come from engineering prototypes
“Many, maybe even most of our good product ideas come from our engineers and come from them prototyping.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 44:46 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Insight
Mike Krieger: AI Model Privacy Discernment Is Underappreciated and Under-Researched
“And I think models, this is very underappreciated and probably under-researched as well from like a model capabilities perspective because models fundamentally want to be helpful. And that is not always what you want them to be. And there's a safety case for t…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 57:01 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krieger: DeepSeek release had almost no impact on Anthropic's go-to-market
“I got this question a bunch with deep seek when deep seek came out, like, all right, what does deep seek mean for you? And I think there's things that we learned from on the tech side, just looking at what they were doing, but from a go to market and place in …”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 9:10 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Krieger: Anthropic will build general-purpose software, not bespoke vertical AI
“We are going to be building things that are general purpose as a rule with maybe some specialization at the, like, user level, but not at the, I don't anticipate us building a lot of verticalized experiences that are, like, fairly bespoke to a given workflow o…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 38:51 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Opinion
Krieger: Anthropic's current product adoption outpaces true product-market fit
“The adoption that we've gotten of our products is ahead of their actual like true Product market fit because they are still the best ways of getting the models. And I don't think that's durable over time.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 52:32 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic under-invested in first-party product iteration and API
“I think we've, if anything, under-invested a bit in two things. One is just Having a faster iteration speed on first-party products, and then on the second part on the API side.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 0:22 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Krieger: Anthropic trained Claude 3 with a much smaller team than competitors
“The Claude three, we were training a model at the frontier that was state of the art with a team that was much, much, much smaller. Than any other lab.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 35:10 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Opinion
Krieger: OpenAI ships initial products faster than Anthropic
“They've moved faster at shipping V-ones, even ahead of where the model is sometimes.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 53:09 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic is actively rebuilding Claude's core user experience
“We have an active effort right now around tearing down some of that and rebuilding the core UX to just feel good. It doesn't feel great right now.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 54:57 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Krieger: Being late to first-party products hurt Anthropic's narrative
“I think significantly if you take a deep seek moment, right? Like ideally that the, like the story of, oh, there's more than one sort of front or leading edge API, sorry, AI product to be used is some, a narrative that we should have captured. I think it hurt …”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 55:38 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 negative
Disclosure
Krieger: Anthropic became overly calcified by adopting a large company playbook
“We got too calcified, I think. And like, oh, well, this is on this team's plate versus this team's plate. And oh, you can't get this done this quarter because it's not on this team.”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 51:57 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025 positive
Insight
Krieger: AI Startups Need Domain Knowledge and Proprietary Data for Long-Term Value
“My sense of where it ends up being most valuable to exist is places where you have some differentiated go to market, some differentiated knowledge of some particular industry or some special data that only you have access to ideally two or even three of those …”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 1:38 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 3, 2025
Insight
Krieger: AI customers won't switch models overnight due to custom integrations
“Over time, you start learning that, people don't just deploy models. They're doing like fine tunes or they're deploying models. Plus they've done a lot of really bespoke work to make that model be great for that use case. It's not a thing that's going to switc…”
Mike Krieger Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 25:59 Mike Krieger, Instagram CoFounder & Anthropic CPO: Where Will Value Be Created in an AI World?|E1265 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025
Disclosure
Osika: Anthropic's Claude is Lovable's main workhorse for code generation
“We use all of OpenAI's models, Google, Gemini, and the main workhorse is Anthropic's cloud model for writing the code.”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 36:23 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Osika: Anthropic's enterprise revenue has almost caught up to OpenAI's
“If you look at the enterprise revenue, like, Anthropik is almost caught up to open AI from nothing, from being absolutely dominated”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 37:57 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Osika: OpenAI has lost all of its best talent to Anthropic
“OpenAI lost all their best talent to Anthropic”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 38:12 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Osika: Buy Grok for business execution, short OpenAI on talent drain
“So I would buy Grok. I think they're also very ruthless in like finding business opportunities. We'll, we'll see about that, but I feel like they could be good at that. Even though Anthropic is my favorite, I love the culture and I love the, like the leadershi…”
Anton Osika Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 36:59 Anton Osika, Co-Founder and CEO @ Lovable: Hitting 85% Day 30 Retention - Better than ChatGPT · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 10, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Saper: Buy Anthropic at $60 billion valuation if application layer improves
“I probably buy Anthropic assuming they can figure out the app, you know, the app stuff more.”
Jake Saper Mar 10, 2025 ▶ 1:26:33 Jake Saper, GP @ Emergence Capital: "We Sold Salesforce Early and Lost Out on Billions" · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Biilmann: Bullish on Anthropic due to coding and programming superiority
“Anthropic definitely has really stood out in, in their ability to solve programming and coding style tasks in a way that I think is like I'm very bullish on Anthropic for that reason, because I think that's such a groundbreaking part of what makes LLMs multipl…”
Matt Biilmann Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 32:16 20Product: How to Design and Build Products in a World of Agents | Why AI Will Kill Many SaaS Products | What Products Will Thrive and Die in a World of 100M Developers with Matt Biilmann, Co-Founder and CEO @ Netlify
Mar 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Biilmann: Would buy Anthropic over OpenAI and Grok at current valuations
“I would probably go for Anthropic. It's a really interesting thing from the outside where a lot of their motivation started around these like safety concerns and like, how do we allow the models to not take over the world and so on. And I think after sort of a…”
Matt Biilmann Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 33:03 20Product: How to Design and Build Products in a World of Agents | Why AI Will Kill Many SaaS Products | What Products Will Thrive and Die in a World of 100M Developers with Matt Biilmann, Co-Founder and CEO @ Netlify
Mar 19, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Singlehurst: Baillie Gifford wouldn't buy OpenAI, Grok, or Anthropic currently
“I think at the moment I would say that I would buy none of them. And it's not because I have a particular, and it's not because I'm critical of those businesses. It's because I don't know what the answer is to enduring competitive advantage at the large langua…”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 1:04:45 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 24, 2025
Assertion Supported
Feldman: AI startup valuations match historically public-market-only levels
“The valuations that Anthropic and OpenAI and some of the others are getting are historically public market only valuations.”
Andrew Feldman Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 51:42 Andrew Feldman, Cerebras Co-Founder and CEO: The AI Chip Wars & The Plan to Break Nvidia's Dominance · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Nayak: Anthropic Is Surpassing OpenAI in Attracting Top AI Talent
“I would have said OpenAI maybe six months ago, but I think Anthropic is really starting to appeal to a lot more people.”
Aatish Nayak Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:00:45 20Product: How Scale AI and Harvey Build Product | Why PMs Are Wrong: They are not the CEOs of the Product | How to do Pre and Post Mortems Effectively and How to Nail PRDs | The Future of Product Management in a World of AI with Aatish Nayak
Apr 17, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Non-OpenAI foundation model startups have underperformed Anthropic
“If you fast forward three years, all the foundation model companies that weren't populated by people who were at OpenAI haven't done great, and Anthropic that was populated by people that came from OpenAI has done pretty well.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 1:10:45 a16z's $20BN Fund & Founders Fund's $4.6BN & Why Josh Kushner Has Mastered the Game · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 18, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Socher: Anthropic under pressure due to Claude's low consumer market share
“Anthropic has a lot more pressure to keep building the best models because Claude is so much smaller in terms of market share for the consumer app.”
Richard Socher Apr 18, 2025 ▶ 9:58 20VC: Foundation Models: Who Wins & Who Loses | How Economies and Labour Markets Need to Change in a World of AI | China vs the US in an AI Race: What You Need to Know | Rich Socher, Founder @ You.com
Apr 24, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: OpenAI Is Weaker Than Anthropic in Coding
“Where is OpenAI slightly weak compared to Anthropic? It's in coding.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 3:31 How LP Deployment to Venture Will Change in 2025 & Are Endowment Funds in Trouble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 1, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Enterprise AI coding tools can absorb LLM API costs
“That's a quietly better model than it looks, right? And it probably can scale and absorb some significant costs From open AI and Anthropic right at that level.”
Jason Lemkin May 1, 2025 ▶ 54:48 What Does it Take to Be Good at Series A and B Today? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Anthropic's $4B round investors hold only 3.5x to 4x returns
“People who did Anthropic at four billion have got about a three and a half to four X when you combine the dilution and the employee stock payouts.”
Harry Stebbings May 5, 2025 ▶ 4:28 Bucky Moore @ Lightspeed Venture Partners: Why You Cannot Do VC If You Do Not Do Pre-Seed · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 5, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Bucky Moore May 5, 2025 ▶ 2:27 Bucky Moore @ Lightspeed Venture Partners: Why You Cannot Do VC If You Do Not Do Pre-Seed · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Coatue's Retail VC Fund Will Sell by Offering AI Access
“Do I think it'll work and raise capital? Probably it will because the facts are there. The other The other PE vehicles have worked. And then let's get real. You know, at the end, it'll be packaged with some version of this is the only way you can get access to…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 15, 2025 ▶ 26:06 OpenAI, SBF & Perplexity: What VCs Know That You Don’t · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2025 positive
What-if
Stebbings: Anthropic and Cursor Venture Investments Would Have Saved FTX
“When you look at FTX, their positions in Anthropic and Cursor actually would have saved them if they had the time to prove that out and they hadn't done the commingling. That would have saved their financial performance with those two investments alone.”
Harry Stebbings May 15, 2025 ▶ 18:23 OpenAI, SBF & Perplexity: What VCs Know That You Don’t · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 15, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Was a Public Benefit Corporation From Day One
“The public BBC structure is actually what Anthropic did from day one. They got it right.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 15, 2025 ▶ 1:00:24 OpenAI, SBF & Perplexity: What VCs Know That You Don’t · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 19, 2025 negative
Insight
Hacker: Opening an SF satellite office creates a talent drain to local giants
“It creates this internal funnel of your best employees moving from your HQ to Silicon Valley. Which by itself is not a problem. The problem is then they get recruited away by the whatever the hot Silicon Valley company is at the time. You know, like it could b…”
Severin Hacker May 19, 2025 ▶ 1:11:24 Duolingo Co-Founder, Severin Hacker: How AI Impacts the Future of Work and Education · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2032
O'Driscoll: Four or more venture exits will top $65B in 5-7 years
“If there's not four exits, Above sixty five billion in the next five or seven years, then the people who bought Stripe, SpaceX, Databricks, OpenAI and Antropic are screwed. So I don't think they're screwed. So I think there's going to be, this trend is going t…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 22, 2025 ▶ 31:41 Rippling vs. Deel Lawsuit: WTF Happens Now? The Future of the Late Stage Private Market · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 5, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue jumped from $1B to $3B in five months
“Because Anthropic is one to three billion in revenue in five months, right?”
Jason Lemkin Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 24:16 Is DPI The Only Thing That Matters? with Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin & Rory O’Driscoll · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 12, 2025 positive
Opinion
Lemkin: Founders Fund's $1B Anduril check shows superior conviction over standard AI growth deals
“They're putting a billion in, right? That's much more ambitious than throwing a growth fund throwing fifty million into the last round of Anthropic, right? Or throwing twenty million into Lovable. It's a big bet, right?”
Jason Lemkin Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 27:43 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 16, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
G Squared is actively buying secondary shares in Anthropic, OpenAI, and Databricks
“A lot. A lot. And I've got appetite for more. Same with OpenAI. Same with Databricks. Wiz.”
Larry Aschebrook Jun 16, 2025 ▶ 1:25:18 Larry Aschebrook, Founder & MP @GSquared: How We Lost Money on Uber and Made Millions on Lyft · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 16, 2025 negative
Opinion
Offloading $1B of Anthropic stock in private markets is extremely difficult
“Today I think there's a handful of liquid private companies basically. They're quasi-liquid. But at scale. Small positions, yes. But try to go move a billion dollars of Anthropic.”
Larry Aschebrook Jun 16, 2025 ▶ 1:30:43 Larry Aschebrook, Founder & MP @GSquared: How We Lost Money on Uber and Made Millions on Lyft · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 16, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
G Squared acquired a large stake in Anthropic via FTX bankruptcy auction
“You know, we were fortunate enough during, you mentioned FTX earlier, to be awarded during the bankruptcy a bunch of stock. We bid on it. We went through the whole process, bid on the stock, bought a big chunk, and now the company, look, the company is, in my …”
Larry Aschebrook Jun 16, 2025 ▶ 1:26:39 Larry Aschebrook, Founder & MP @GSquared: How We Lost Money on Uber and Made Millions on Lyft · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 26, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Meta won't build a major business selling LLaMA APIs
“It's not that they want to open source Lama and make money off it. They won't. It's not that they want to even have an API offering of Lama, something like, you know, a, an anthropic offering that just won't be big.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 26, 2025 ▶ 2:49 Navan Files to Go Public and Canva Pulls the Brakes: Why and What Happens? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 3, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's burn dropped from $5B last year to $3B this year
“Seeing the, you know, the strong performance from Antropic in terms of top line growth, and then just looking at the burn, you know, five last year going to three this year.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 23:00 Figma’s IPO: The Full Breakdown & Why Melio’s $2.5BN Acquisition is “Discouraging” · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 17, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Anthropic and OpenAI face harsher safety backlash than Elon Musk
“Elon Musk can get away with this the most. Just because of who he is. Like, it's unacceptable to have a race, to release a racist model to the, like, there's, this is as unacceptable as it gets. But Sam Altman's going to be fried. Anthropic's going to be fried…”
Jason Lemkin Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 34:39 Windsurf x Google x Cognition: Full Breakdown: Who Made Money, Who Did Not · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 18, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Wu: Anthropic has quadrupled its revenue since reaching a $60B valuation
“Well, Anthropic has quadrupled their revenue since they were valued at sixty billion, so it seems like a fair one to pick.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 41:19 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Wu: Private AI foundation labs will far exceed $500B aggregate valuation
“If you add all their valuations today, what is that? Like, 500 B, something like that? I think that's gonna go way up in the next five years.”
Scott Wu Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 40:27 Cognition CEO Scott Wu on Acquiring Windsurf: The Process, The Deal, The Rationale · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 21, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chen predicts future will feature multiple competing frontier AGI companies
“How I see a world where there actually will be multiple, multiple, Frontier AI companies, Frontier AGIs, just because every one of them will be able to go in a different direction. Like, you see it already, you see it today playing out already with the differe…”
Edwin Chen Jul 21, 2025 ▶ 1:02:57 Surge CEO & Co-Founder, Edwin Chen: Scaling to $1BN+ in Revenue with NO Funding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will not cut off Cursor from model access
“I think it'd be very stupid of Entropic to just cut off a, probably the largest customer at the knees. And I, and the one thing, they're not stupid. So I don't think they will.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 18:00 How Do All Providers Deal with Anthropic Dependency Risk & Figma IPO Breakdown: Where Does it Price? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll prefers investing in Anthropic at $100B over OpenAI at $300B
“I think I do Anthropic at a hundred just from a back short-term momentum perspective.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 23:02 How Do All Providers Deal with Anthropic Dependency Risk & Figma IPO Breakdown: Where Does it Price? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic are the only AI startups that will survive
“The clear three, the two people who are clearly going to be at the table as startups when this is done are OpenAI and Entropic. It, it's hard to imagine beyond that.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 22:15 How Do All Providers Deal with Anthropic Dependency Risk & Figma IPO Breakdown: Where Does it Price? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Casado: Anthropic and OpenAI will remain long-term stalwarts in AI
“Both Anthropic and Opener have done a remarkable job, remarkable with brand independence and market share, and so I suspect they'll continue to be stalwarts in the industry.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 9:22 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025
Assertion Supported
Casado: Early AWS Had Far More Market Dominance Than Anthropic Does Today
“AWS was like, 70 or 80% market share early on. Nobody thought they could ever catch up to them. You know, they were the massive market leaders that created the category. I mean, they had way more dominance than Anthropic has now.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 7:07 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 28, 2025 positive
Opinion
Casado: Google's Gemini 2.5 Beats Anthropic On Price-Performance For Many Uses
“Gemini 2.5 is a great model. It's a great model. And if you actually look at it, you know, on the price performance, I would say in many use cases, the one that I actually use as my standard model, it's better than Anthropic.”
Martin Casado Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 7:30 a16z GP, Martin Casado: Anthropic vs OpenAI & Why Open Source is a National Security Risk with China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic grew revenue from $1B to $4B year-over-year
“I believe that there was a billion late last year and four billion this year.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 27:26 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 31, 2025 bearish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Pure developer tools cannot support a $1T valuation
“I don't think you get to a month of a trillion dollars if you're just selling stuff to developers, which isn't to say I don't think you do extraordinarily well.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 36:36 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 14, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic can become $500B-$1T companies without AGI
“I think both of these companies can be plus or minus, you know, half a trillion to trillion dollar companies.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 13:08 Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift to Anthropic? Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025
Disclosure
Osika: Majority of Lovable's paid usage revenue goes to AI compute
“I don't give you the exact numbers, but if you look at the paid usage, it's majority, it's not everything.”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 9:40 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Osika: Invest in xAI's Grok and short OpenAI
“I'd invest in GroK, and I would probably short Anthropic. No, I would short OpenAI.”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 0:04 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025
Disclosure
Osika: Lovable uses Anthropic for coding but OpenAI for complex debugging
“And then we use for code writing, we usually use Anthropic. And right now you can say like, I want to use GPT-V and that's better when you're solving a really hard debugging problem.”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 19:02 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Osika: Grok has better team morale and trajectory than OpenAI and Anthropic
“I think it's more the slope on the Grok team. They have, they're doing something which I respect a lot, which is to hire missionaries for the data curation part, and they call it AI tutoring. And they I think the morale is much, much better in that team than b…”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:05:37 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 18, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Osika: OpenAI will be a bigger competitor to Lovable than Anthropic
“OpenAI is doing that better than Anthropic. So I see them as a more serious competitor in, in, in 12 months.”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 16:39 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 21, 2025 bearish
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Anthropic will not release its Claude 5 model this year
“There's no chance, I think.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 21, 2025 ▶ 1:27:45 Databricks at $100BN, CoreWeave’s $11B Debt Bet & Nubank’s $2.5B Profit Shocker - Ep.19 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Deeter: Anthropic will be valued over $1 trillion within three years
“I mean, we put our money where our mouth is. We've been a buyer. So over, and that's again, like we a year ago when we were buyers, we still wouldn't have didn't conceive of that.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 1:22:03 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025
Disclosure
Deeter: Bessemer's largest all-time investments include Twilio, Canva, and Anthropic
“So it used to be Twilio. Then you know, probably StubHub, Canva, Anthropic Yeah, probably, probably that bucket.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 44:54 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Canva, Anthropic, and Perplexity will not go public anytime soon
“Now you look at, you know, Canva, you know, forty billion plus, and Anthropica with seventy billion plus, and perplexity, you know deep into DekuKorn status, and like, these businesses, you know, aren't going public anytime soon.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 38:09 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Top three LLM companies will raise $100B in six months
“I think the numbers right now, the top three LLMs, if you include you know, Anthropoc, OpenAI, and X in there, ah, are gonna raise a hundred billion dollars in this six month period”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 8:49 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Deeter: Bessemer invested in Anthropic believing it could be a 30x return
“You know, 3.8 X will keep you in business for a long time, but the reason to do it is because you believe it could be a 30 X. And that's the basis of our anthropic investment is we believe that it is a generational company.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 7:09 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Anthropic's revenue growth trajectory is unprecedented in tech history
“Like, when you actually see the anthropic numbers that he's now sharing, and like, this is real, and, you know, their path to billions and billions in revenue, and, you know, really compelling unit economics, I just, we have never seen this in the history of o…”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 1:21:36 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Deeter: Economics for Anthropic, Perplexity, and Canva Pencil Out
“And I assure you, one of the coolest things about the profile of anthropic and perplexity and Canvan, these businesses is the math actually pencils out.”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 28:04 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 25, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Deeter: Bessemer invested over $100M each in Anthropic, Perplexity, and Canva
“You know, you look at an Anthropic or a Perplexity or a Canva and we, you know, we have, you know, nine figures into each of these companies and yet we are still, you know, well below historical venture standards where you aspire to own 20% or something in the…”
Byron Deeter Aug 25, 2025 ▶ 5:56 BVP Partner, Byron Deeter: The Future of Venture - Why Chanel vs Walmart is BS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Iconiq leads Anthropic's new round after Lightspeed led previous round
“Iconic is a lead for this round and Lightspeed led the last round.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 33:56 Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 28, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Benioff: Salesforce owns a 1% stake in Anthropic
“Salesforce owns one percent of Anthropic.”
Marc Benioff Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 25:20 Anthropic's $10B Round, Klarna's IPO, Inside a16z's 72 Deal Seed Investment Machine ft. Marc Benioff · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue tripled in four months
“Anthropix revenue has tripled in four months, right?”
Jason Lemkin Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 27:24 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's valuation is 8-9x next year's revenue if growth persists
“The stunning thing with this growth rate, if it persists, big underline, is you're only buying in at eight to nine times next year's revenues if the growth lasts.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 2:45 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Lemkin: ICONIQ used Statsig acquisition as backdoor to invest in OpenAI
“Iconic rolls over a hundred million into open AI. They're not allowed to invest because they led the anthropic round. Right. So this is the only way they can put nine figures into it because they're soft band or hard band from the round.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 16:11 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Obrecht: Anthropic's $13B funding round was heavily oversubscribed and exclusive
“This round was also super oversubscribed. It was, I know folks in the industry have been clamoring over this and it was hard to get into.”
Cliff Obrecht Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 3:16 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 4, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic grew revenue from $100M to $1B in 2024
“They went from a hundred to a billion last year.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 32:43 Anthropic Raises $13BN & OpenAI Buys Statsig for $1.1BN All Stock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic Sourced AI Book Training Datasets Directly from Pirate Sites
“They downloaded this from pirate websites. Okay. This wasn't cutting a little bit of a corner. Okay. This wasn't claiming something that wasn't quite open source was, This is literally, guys, we got to get this rocket ship going. I need a trillion books. I'm g…”
Jason Lemkin Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 44:45 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: B2B companies failing to gain AI revenue deserve an F
“If you're a B to B company and you're seeing nothing, you're not seeing any boost from AI. You didn't get open AI or anthropic as a customer. You're not seeing any benefits like you get an F. You get an F. There's so much money flowing through this system, rig…”
Jason Lemkin Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 21:45 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 11, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Kleiner Perkins' $100M Anthropic check is just a logo deal
“You got, you can't walk into the partners and not have anthropic or open AI on the website. It's not enough. Yeah. It's a low, I think it's a logo deal.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 30:57 OpenAI’s $10BN Secondary Sale, Ramp Hits $1BN ARR & Brex Hits $700M · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Microsoft shifting default model choice to Anthropic across several products
“Microsoft I think today said they're moving not just parts of office to Anthropic, but that it is the default choice for several other products and that Microsoft today said several months ago, they told their teams to start using cloud code several months ago…”
Jason Lemkin Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 44:01 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Decacorn CEOs spend aggressively on AI but switch easily
“The only interesting take I'll take is that I interview, honestly, three to four Dacacorn CEOs every week, and on this topic, two interesting elements, completely price insensitive as to how much they spend on Anthropic, and Claude Code in particular. I was th…”
Harry Stebbings Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 1:03:43 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 18, 2025 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic No Longer Need Microsoft or Amazon
“In both these cases, the small company won. They got the money, they got the critical mass, they got the credibility, and now they've pulled away. And neither on top of now open AI needs Microsoft or Amazon at this point. They don't need them for money. They d…”
Rory O’Driscoll Sep 18, 2025 ▶ 49:41 Opendoor CEO, Kaz Nejatian: OpenAI and Oracle, How Can Either Afford to Do This · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 19, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Zhang: Valuation gap between OpenAI and Anthropic will shrink over time
“I don't think that long-term necessarily we'll always see a five X difference between open and anthropic. So I guess, yeah, maybe, maybe if the question is more like, what is spread trade? I think like that, that multiple will shrink. Over time.”
Jesse Zhang Sep 19, 2025 ▶ 50:43 20VC: Why 90% of Founders Build Startups Wrong | Why AI Growth Rates are Sustainable & Remote Work is BS and the AI Talent War | Competing with Brett Taylor and Sierra: Who Wins the Customer Service War with Jesse Zhang, Decagon
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 40:38 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 positive
Assertion Open
Taneja: Anthropic has consistently beaten its own revenue targets
“They've always done better than they've said, by the way, too”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 42:33 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Taneja: Microsoft and OpenAI's partnership is fracturing over colliding ambitions
“Is that an enduring investment? No, obviously now they've gone at odds with each other because there's an ambition that collides between the two companies and so they want to have more choice. They want to have anthropic at the table as well.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 39:27 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Taneja: General Catalyst invested in Anthropic at a $60 billion valuation
“Look, we invested in a topic only you know, less than a year ago at the sixty billion dollar round,”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 33:26 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taneja: Anthropic investors will see better return multiples than OpenAI's
“And that's why the investors there will probably end up doing on a multiple basis better than again, you know, in a world of like what's durable, what's not like they're trending to be, maybe they'll do better. In their MOI than the early investors would in op…”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 41:43 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Taneja: Anthropic could be worth $500B by next year
“So that's half a trillion dollar company, like by the end of next year. I'm not saying that's what it's going to be, but if they hit their numbers, I don't see why that won't happen. Just from, I'm just saying public market comps, like that's what those things…”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 43:26 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 22, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Taneja: Anthropic raised at ~20x ARR versus 50-100x for AI peers
“Anthropic this round probably was the cheapest round that got done this year on a multiple spaces. Which company was raising capital at, you know, at 20 times ARR? They're all raising capital at 50 to a hundred times ARR.”
Hemant Taneja Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 35:18 General Catalyst CEO, Hemant Taneja: Lessons Scaling GC to $40BN in AUM · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Could Raise $10B Tomorrow If It Wanted
“My understanding is they were beating people off with a stick on the recent on Tropic round. And if they decided they want another ten billion, it'll be there tomorrow morning. So it's not capital constrained.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 6:13 The Impact of H1B Visas on Startups in the US & NVIDIA Invests $100BN Into OpenAI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Groq engineers recently switched from Anthropic tools to OpenAI Codex
“Our engineers recently started using codecs more than using the Anthropic tools.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 1:07:39 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Jonathan Ross: OpenAI and Anthropic Are Both Highly Undervalued
“I'd want to invest in both. They're both undervalued. Highly undervalued.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 1:08:42 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 bullish
What-if
Ross: OpenAI and Anthropic revenues would double with double compute
“If OpenAI were given twice the inference compute that they have today. If Anthropic was given twice the inference compute that they have today, within one month from now, their revenue would almost double.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 0:28 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Ross: OpenAI, Anthropic, and all hyperscalers will build custom chips
“I have no doubt that OpenAI will be able to build its own chips. I have no doubt that eventually, Anthropic will be building their own chips, that every hyperscaler will build their own chip.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 13:06 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Sep 29, 2025 positive
Opinion
Ross: Anthropic should open-source older models to counter Chinese AI adoption
“I think that Anthropic should be open sourcing their previous generation in order to get people using them instead of the Chinese models.”
Jonathan Ross Sep 29, 2025 ▶ 33:32 Groq Founder, Jonathan Ross: OpenAI & Anthropic Will Build Their Own Chips & Will NVIDIA Hit $10TRN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 9, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Non-OpenAI and Anthropic AI startups won't raise needed capital
“I don't think it's a monopoly, but I think it's definitely an oligopoly. To be clear. So I think that, yes, the number two at Tropic clearly can. It's a differentiated number two with an overlapping, but strategy, but not, you know, one is winning in consumer,…”
Rory O'Driscoll Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 1:06:54 OpenAI's Multi-Billion Deal with AMD & Polymarket, Vercel and Supabase Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 10, 2025 negative
Opinion
Degnan: Salespeople at tailwind companies like Anthropic miss out on selling skills
“What happens when you're working at Anthropic, for example, my guess is you're not really learning how to competitively knife fight in a sale.”
Chris Degnan Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 23:36 20Sales: Scaling Snowflake from $0-$3BN in ARR | Snowflake vs Databricks: My Biggest Lessons | Why Customer Success is BS and What Replaces It with Chris Chris Degnan
Oct 10, 2025 negative
Insight
Degnan: Product-led growth fails alone in enterprise sales
“So PLG is great, but if you want to sell to the enterprise is hyper-political, and you have to have a sales process to do that. And at some point, The PLG motion will fail you, or it won't get you to that, that large enterprise. And if you aspire to sell the l…”
Chris Degnan Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 52:53 20Sales: Scaling Snowflake from $0-$3BN in ARR | Snowflake vs Databricks: My Biggest Lessons | Why Customer Success is BS and What Replaces It with Chris Chris Degnan
Oct 17, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Lloyd: Anthropic API Margins Are 60%, OpenAI Margins Are 50%
“Anthropic has a big margin on their API business right now. What I've heard is 60% margin on Anthropic's API. I've heard 50% on OpenAI.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 39:35 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Oct 17, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lloyd: OpenAI has an edge over Anthropic because of ChatGPT
“I'm very, very bullish on open AI because I think they have a winning consumer product.”
Zach Lloyd Oct 17, 2025 ▶ 1:04:32 20VC: The Startup Adding $1M ARR Every Week | Competing Against OpenAI's Codex and Claude Code: Who Wins | Why Gemini is Failing and GPT-5 Is Winning | Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | The Ugly Truth About AI Coding with Zach Lloyd, Warp
Oct 27, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cahn: OpenAI and Anthropic are vertically integrating into physical infrastructure
“Well, I think the simple version would be OpenAI and Anthropic are now steel servers and power companies. And that's like a big change that's happened in the last 12 months. And so I actually think we're, you know, in many ways, OpenAI and Anthropic are becomi…”
David Cahn Oct 27, 2025 ▶ 9:44 Sequoia Partner, David Cahn on Who Wins in AI, Defence & The New $0–$100M Playbook · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Oct 30, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Google owns 14% of Anthropic
“Google owns 14% of Anthropic.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 1:18:58 OpenAI Restructuring: Who Wins and Who Loses & Mercor Raises $350M at a $10BN Valuation · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 6, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic projects $70 billion in revenue by 2028
“Anthropic is now projecting seventy billion in revenue in 2028”
Jason Lemkin Nov 6, 2025 ▶ 34:02 Is a $4.5BN Exit Enough in VC? & Harvey Raises $150M & Why Google is a Buy and Amazon is a Sell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 10, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Randle: Prefers OpenAI at $500B over Anthropic at $350B
“And Sonnet and all the models that they have is probably still a little bit ahead of OpenAI, but I think given ChatGPT, I think I would probably rather do OpenAI at 500 than Anthropic at three 50, but I both think that they're relatively good investments even …”
Everett Randle Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 15:36 Benchmark's GP, Everett Randle on Why Mega Funds Will Not Produce Good Returns · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Stebbings: Anthropic Projects Reaching $70B in ARR by 2028
“Anthropic projects seventy billion in ARR by 2028.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 13, 2025 ▶ 13:36 Michael Burry Shorts NVIDIA and Palantir & Has Defensibility Died in a World of AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 17, 2025 negative
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Harry Stebbings: AI coding startups pay 80% of pass-through revenue to Anthropic
“If you look at a Rapplet or a Lovable, 80% of their pass-through is too anthropic.”
Harry Stebbings Nov 17, 2025 ▶ 33:05 AI Fund’s GP, Andrew Ng: LLMs as the Next Geopolitical Weapon & Do Margins Still Matter in AI? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 24, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shlomo: Developers will stick with Claude Code over superior models
“Like, even if now Gemini three comes out and it's a better model than Cloud and so on, then still there's gonna be a huge number of people staying with CloudCode because they're used to it and they built some things up the stack.”
Maor Shlomo Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 1:14:52 Base44’s Founder, Maor Shlomo on How Vibe Coding Will Kill SaaS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 24, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Shlomo: Anthropic has better models and growth trajectory than OpenAI
“Moving faster. They correct something in coding. They're very focused on delivering value to B to B customers of, they don't have the first mover advantage, but I think they have better models. And when they look at their trajectory they're better positioned f…”
Maor Shlomo Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 1:11:50 Base44’s Founder, Maor Shlomo on How Vibe Coding Will Kill SaaS · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2025 positive
Opinion
Rory O'Driscoll: Microsoft-Anthropic-Nvidia compute deal has better fundamentals than peers
“Of all the round tripping deals, I would argue a Microsoft, Entropic, Nvidia deal probably has better principles and upside than most. I mean, some of the other round tripping deals look like they're already, you know, a bit shaky.”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 4:13 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2025
Insight
Jason Lemkin: Overpushing key employees forces them to build rival competitors
“You'd rather not create an anthropic when your team leaves too, let alone thinking machines and all that. You don't want to force two of your best people out and they build your top competitor.”
Jason Lemkin Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 35:17 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic plans to build its own physical data centers
“Kind of, you didn't mention it, but in the same announcement, I think, Anthropic also said they're going to break ground on a physical data center. So that's another one of the model companies saying it's not enough to rely on compute from your service provide…”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 3:13 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 27, 2025 bullish
Prediction Held up
Rory O'Driscoll: Microsoft compute spending will grow 30% next year
“Is Microsoft going to increase another 30% next year? Is Antropic going to invest in compute? And right now, all those answers to those questions are yes.”
Rory O'Driscoll Nov 27, 2025 ▶ 19:49 Anthropic Raises $30B from Microsoft & NVIDIA & NVIDIA’s Core Business Faces TPU Threat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 4, 2025 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Anthropic Solved AI Coding; Cursor and Replit Just Grafted On
“Claude figured that out. Cursor didn't figure this out. Replit and Lovable and Bolt didn't figure it out. I can tell you the story. Claude figured it out. Anthropic, the guys, you know, once they quit OpenAI, they figured it out and everyone grafted on this, i…”
Jason Lemkin Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 1:02:50 Eventbrite Sold for $500M, Databricks $5B Raise at $134B Valuation & Why SaaS is Like Japan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Lemkin: Anthropic and Databricks will IPO in late 2026
“I think Anthropic and Databricks have an incentive to IPO, as best I understand it. They have an incentive. As Rory said, times are great. And so I think it'll be the, unless, unless, unless the market crashes for some reason, I think they're going to do it wh…”
Jason Lemkin Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 13:20 SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price & Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Lemkin: Anthropic will go public at a $500 billion valuation
“20 X times 26 is five 20. I'm gonna guess five hundred billion IPO, right?”
Jason Lemkin Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 17:15 SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price & Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Foundation LLM providers must own consumer apps to avoid API commoditization
“If at the API level, I'm a commodity, and there's me, OpenAI, and Gemini, and the swapping between us, I have got to grab the apps. And that's what you're saying. I mean, Antropic is grabbing the coding app, And obviously OpenAI is grabbing the ChatGPT consume…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 1:05:36 SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price & Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic buys Broadcom chips to bypass Nvidia's 75% margins
“Why is Entropic buying chips from Broadcom? Answer. They don't want to pay 75% gross margins to Nvidia.”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 28:36 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic will reach profitability and IPO while OpenAI faces overcommitment
“I think the difference between Anthropix and OpenAI is, OpenAI has more ambition, perhaps, but it's more likely to just get caught In the middle with commitments it can't meet. Whereas I think Entropic is very sensibly and boringly converging on profitability,…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 1:20:31 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lemkin: Google is corporate investor of the year for its massive stakes
“Owning almost 10% of SpaceX, owning, ah, perhaps 14% of Anthropic, depending on dilution, right? Now, and obviously, now this is the greatest in circular investment of all, owning the vast majority of Waymo, which is going to blow up. But those three are, like…”
Jason Lemkin Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 17:43 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will likely IPO in 2026, but Stripe will not
“I think Stripe, least likely, take it off the table. My gut would be Antropic gets it done.”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 1:02:17 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Dec 22, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Lemkin: SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, and Anthropic will IPO in 2026
“I think we see four IPOs backloaded next year. SpaceX goes out first. Canva comes out of nowhere second. Databricks does it in the back half of the year because it's just time. Anthropic does it at the end of the year. OpenAI probably should have gone first, b…”
Jason Lemkin Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 0:00 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's per-share growth is under 5x despite 15x valuation jump
“In the year when, you know, when Entropic raised money at four or five billion, then there is a 14, then they raised at 60. Your rough math would say four billion to sixty billion is a 15 X. It's just under a five X on a per share basis because you're issuing …”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 42:08 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: OpenAI's comp is 3-4x higher than Anthropic's
“This is like three to four X the comp of Anthropic effectively.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 38:27 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026
Insight
O'Driscoll: Corporate AI imperatives conflict with leaders skeptical of LLMs
“Once it became a corporate imperative for Meta to be competitive with OpenAI and Anthropic in the LLM space, having a guy running that product, running that project, whose first line is, I don't think this is important. We should do something else. Just causes…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 30:44 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic has done far fewer secondary sales than OpenAI
“They've had a very limited number of secondaries compared to open AI.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 38:33 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 8, 2026 bearish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Skeptical the Market Can Support Ten Separate AI Research Labs
“It will be interesting to see, can the world support 10? Research labs coming up with 10 different variants of AI, all of which have to build either commercial or consumer businesses. I think on aggregate I'm fairly skeptical, but it's less a quality of, I mea…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 34:05 Groq’s $20BN NVIDIA Deal | Why Sam Altman Doesn’t Care About Dilution & Invisible Unemployment 2026 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic cut off xAI's access to its models
“Even little things like Anthropic cutting off XAI's access to Anthropic this week.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 11:08 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic generates roughly $1B annually from Cursor
“Right now, it's great for Anthropic to get an extra billion or so a year from Cursor.”
Jason Lemkin Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 11:16 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's revenue multiple is lower than Palantir's
“It's a much lower revenue multiple than Palantir. It's kind of comparable with Cloudflare for God's sake in the public markets.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 3:04 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: First venture rounds for OpenAI and Anthropic were $23B and $4B
“The first venture round at OpenAI was twenty-three billion pre with Thrive, and the first venture round at Entropic was four billion pre with Spark and Menlo, you know, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 56:40 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's $10B raise will likely be its last before IPO
“I think it probably will be the last one before the IPO.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 1:49 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 15, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic grew ARR from $100M in 2023 to ~$10B in 2025
“They went from a 100,000,023 at the end of 23 run rate to a billion at the end of 24 run rate. To allegedly about between nine and ten billion at the end of 25.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 2:21 Anthropic’s $10B Raise | a16z’s $15B Fund: Is the Middle Dead in VC? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 16, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Lovinsky: I am a buyer of Anthropic equity over OpenAI right now
“I'm a buyer of Anthropic at this point.”
Noam Lovinsky Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 36:09 20Product: Is the Design Phase Dead in a World of AI | Has Claude Code Crushed Anthropic Already | What Roles of a PM Are Less and More Important with AI | How the Best Product Leaders Tell Stories with Noam Lovinsky, CPO @ Superhuman
Jan 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Weinberg says Anthropic reached roughly $3 billion in revenue entering 2025
“I'm pretty sure Anthropix at like three billion in revenue right now.”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 8:11 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 19, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Weinberg says Harvey's query routing to Anthropic Opus 4.5 rose significantly
“Not entirely, but there were definitely, so we route basically based off of the use case, we route to the best combination of models and definitely our traffic went up to Opus 4.5 significantly.”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 20:58 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 19, 2026 bullish
Insight
Weinberg: OpenAI and Anthropic revenues would explode even without new models
“I think if both companies literally just stopped shipping things, their revenues would still explode because there are going to be so many companies building on top of their models There are going to be so many different parts of the economy that adopt these t…”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 25:33 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 19, 2026 neutral
Insight
Weinberg: Product iteration speed is the main threat to application AI
“I think just moving fast enough on product, like that, that is always, I think, the biggest existential threat for all the application layer companies. And it's not necessarily that, you know, Anthropic or OpenAI are, you know, tomorrow gonna put 50% of their …”
Winston Weinberg Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 19:45 Harvey CEO Winston Weinberg: How to Make Mega Deals | Lessons from Rabois, Halligan & Grady · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Insight
O'Driscoll: Early-Stage Competitor Investing Is Blocked by Founders
“You couldn't do the Series A of OpenAI and do the Series A of Anthropic. That would be stupid. I would assume one of the CEOs would stop you.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 1:11:21 Elon Musk vs Sam Altman | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Pricing? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 22, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Musk Is Wrong That OpenAI Was a Scheme to Cheat Donors
“So I think fundamentally, I think Elon's wrong on the core assertion. I don't think this was a cunning device to cheat everyone, because if they wanted to do that, they could have just done what Antropic did, which is the totally sensible interim stage of a pu…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 36:07 Elon Musk vs Sam Altman | The Implosion of Thinking Machines | Can VC Survive Public Pricing? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Junestrand: Legora shifted from exclusively OpenAI to majority Anthropic models
“We are pretty diehard Anthropic right now at the company in terms of the models that we deploy in our system. So initially we were only open AI. So so most of only open AI. And now we're a majority using Anthropic.”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 11:14 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 neutral
Insight
Junestrand: Anthropic Is Focusing on Enterprise While OpenAI Shifts to B2C
“We, I also think there's a difference between solving enterprise needs and solving B to C needs. And to me, there's a split happening or A perceived split, at least from my vantage point, which is that Anthropic is going more enterprise and OpenAI is going mor…”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 16:04 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 26, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Junestrand: Anthropic and Gemini will outperform OpenAI in enterprise AI
“I'll bet based on what I've seen in the last sort of three, six months. I think for our type of work, it will either be cloud or Gemini. That is the top model. And it will be dependent on if context window is a very important factor or not. So far it is not be…”
Max Junestrand Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 15:04 Legora CEO, Max Junestrand: $7M ARR in a Day | Harvey vs Legora: Is a Legal AI Winner Takes All? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will eventually become a cash-flow profitable business
“Fundamentally, however, I don't doubt the fact that a profitable, and defined by that as free cash flow, operating income business, will emerge from something like, I mean, Atropic's not going to not have a profitable business model because this clearly is con…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 21:11 Anthropic Inference Costs Skyrocket |TikTok Deal Closes |The IPO Market:Wealthfront & EquipmentShare · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic gross margins improved from -94% to ~40%
“Remember, last year they had a -94% gross margin. And this year they have a 40% plus or minus gross margin.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 20:22 Anthropic Inference Costs Skyrocket |TikTok Deal Closes |The IPO Market:Wealthfront & EquipmentShare · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jan 29, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic generate virtually all private AI revenue
“So, objectively speaking, if you kind of add up all the AI revenue, you know, you're going to get thirteen billion for OpenAI, four billion for Entropic, and everything else is in the noise, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 47:49 Anthropic Inference Costs Skyrocket |TikTok Deal Closes |The IPO Market:Wealthfront & EquipmentShare · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 5, 2026
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic signed a deal for one million TPUs
“Anthropic signed a deal for a million TPUs, right? And is deep on the whole Amazon Tranium ecosystem.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 58:36 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Feb 5, 2026 bearish
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI will rush IPOs due to capital pressure
“What all three of those say to me is there's no matter, there's subtle pressure around access to capital. Like they've all got to have an IPO strategy sooner than they'd hoped because Data center, because XAI needs capital, because Anthropic is even worried ab…”
Jason Lemkin Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 7:36 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Feb 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Cohen: Sierra, OpenAI, and Anthropic Fail at Complex Vertical AI Needs
“There is nothing even remotely closed to what is needed when you go to a complex vertical out there. Okay. And it's definitely not in the kind of Sierra level, but even if you take it to the level of the APIs, If I'm kind of taking an anthropic and an open AI,…”
Ariel Cohen Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 21:00 20VC: From $6.2BN Market Cap to $2.8BN: What Is Not Translating About Navan's Public Story | Are Any Public Company CEOs Actually Happy? | Why Navan Built It's Own Customer Service AI and What it Could Mean For Customer Service AI with Ariel Cohen
Feb 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Cannon-Brookes: VCs back OpenAI at huge valuations for logo marketing
“One thing that they don't say is a lot of VCs want the loose side on the wall, so when you walk into the office, on the wall is a nice logo that says, oh, you invested in OpenAI. You invested in Anthropic. Well, if you put money at three hundred fifty billion,…”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:00:17 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Lemkin: Anthropic is a generational company whose only weakness is consumer
“Anthropic is, I mean, it's a generational, generational company. It changed coding. It changed everything. But the only place Anthropic is weak is consumer.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:04:10 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 12, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Cannon-Brookes: Anthropic is one of Atlassian's largest AI models
“We use Anthropic a lot. It's one of our biggest models. We use, you know, multiple models which I think is what most good SaaS vendors are doing within their customers' choices, right? Like we use a lot of Gemini, a lot of Anthropic. We have a whole bunch of L…”
Mike Cannon-Brookes Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 2:42 Anthropic's Super Bowl Ad: Who Won & Lost? | Sierra Hits $150M ARR: Is Customer Support Too Crowded? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 16, 2026 positive
Opinion
Siemiatkowski: Claude serves as an unbiased advisor rather than a user-pleaser
“Claude to me is very different. Claude is like my intelligent advisor and I am trying to push and I say to Antropic all the time, like, I don't want an AI that tell me you're so great, man. Like, I understand that that's, like, a nice experience, and some peop…”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Feb 16, 2026 ▶ 56:34 Klarna CEO: SaaS is Dead: Why Systems of Record Will Die in an Agentic World · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation, up from $10B
“Anthropic raises thirty billion at a three hundred and eighty billion dollar post money. Now, it was originally ten billion and it upscaled to a thirty billion dollar round.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 1:14 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic is clearly the best AI model for enterprise
“Anthropic looks like, for enterprise, it's clearly the best model.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 5:35 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Thrive Capital specifically declined Anthropic investment due to OpenAI stake
“They actually specifically, unlike some of the other funds that have invested in both, they've Specifically our fund that said, no, we backed open AI. We're not going to back on tropics.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 1:12:33 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's three-year 10x revenue growth is unprecedented in tech history
“The truth is you've never seen a company grow 10 X in gap revenue and runway year on year for three years. Right? At this scale. It just hasn't happened.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 6:52 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Less than 20% of Anthropic's Claude revenue comes from consumers
“Most of OpenAI's revenues comes from ChatGPT on the consumer side, and Claude, less than 20% of the revenue is consumer.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 10:11 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 19, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic revenue surged to 64% of OpenAI's in 14 months
“Anthropic said it's hundred K customers are up seven X in the last year. So there's not enough time to steal deals. Having said that, going from five percent of OpenAI's revenue to 64% in 14 months, that is stealing budget.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 10:56 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 23, 2026 bearish
Insight
Swisher: AI models disrupt public market belief in SaaS terminal value
“For the first time ever with this AI wave, people are questioning the terminal value of SaaS, right? These were supposed to be like insurance companies, you know, annuity streams that just have revenue streams and profit pools forever and ever and ever. And fo…”
Lucas Swisher Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 1:23 Insights from Coatue's Growth Investor Lucas Swisher · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 23, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Swisher: Anthropic's coding focus enabled its enterprise AI beachhead
“The bull case on Anthropic is really simple and really straightforward. Their focus on coding has been an unbelievable advantage for them because coding is the first use case in AI that's really taken off. That code, that coding focus has led them to have a be…”
Lucas Swisher Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 55:03 Insights from Coatue's Growth Investor Lucas Swisher · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 23, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Swisher: Anthropic's multi-cloud, multi-chip strategy gives unappreciated optionality
“In the last strategic decision that they made that I think is really Sort of unappreciated by the market is they built for every cloud and they built for every chip platform, and that gives them incredible optionality and a lot of people want them to win.”
Lucas Swisher Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 55:27 Insights from Coatue's Growth Investor Lucas Swisher · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 23, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Swisher: Anthropic reached $9B ARR while growing 800%
“If you look at Anthropic, right, publicly available numbers, nine billion of ARR growing 800%.”
Lucas Swisher Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 58:20 Insights from Coatue's Growth Investor Lucas Swisher · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 26, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Rory O'Driscoll: CrowdStrike will not be obviated by Anthropic's security launch
“I don't think CrowdStrike's obviated by this. I think it will totally be fine. It'll continue to be a business.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 5:14 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 26, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic are the fastest-growing companies ever
“You gotta say these are the two fastest growing companies in history. That's just a statement of fact.”
Rory O'Driscoll Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 59:43 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Feb 26, 2026 bearish
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Claude Code will aggressively attack Figma's business this year
“So I believe it will aggressively attack parts of Figma this year, even though they're key partners.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 19:13 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 positive
Opinion
Zinman: Anthropic currently holds more momentum than OpenAI
“Definitely, I feel And Tropic have a little bit more momentum right now. They can change. And it will change, I'm sure.”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 1:06:13 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zinman: Enterprise SaaS faces five distinct AI doomsday scenarios
“Yeah, so first of all, I think there's like five Doomeday scenarios I'm familiar with, so that's one of them. But, you know, I'll just take you back a little bit in time, but first of all, it was everything about people will Vibe code their own apps. That was …”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 3:38 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zinman: ChatGPT and Claude won't win enterprise AI orchestration
“I don't think that ChatGPT or Gemini on Tropic are going to do it, because going back to my the second theory that we discussed, you know, of course, you know, people are buying a Tropic Claude, they're buying ChatGPT, but it's not a tool where you work with a…”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 32:20 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zinman: OpenAI and Anthropic won't capture all enterprise software value
“So I'm not saying people will not use Entropic and OpenAI, for sure they will, but I don't think they're gonna capture all the enterprise value. Because they have a much bigger opportunity ahead of them, and it's not their focus.”
Eran Zinman Mar 2, 2026 ▶ 11:48 Monday.com CEO on Is SaaS Dead: Will Everything Be Vibe Coded | Eran Zinman · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Anthropic delayed Claude launch before ChatGPT over safety concerns
“In fact, they refused to release Claude before ChatGPT because he didn't think it was safe. They only released Claude under, under duress.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 3:58 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic was naive to dictate safety limits to the Pentagon
“Given that, I think it was naive to try and sell the government at all at the Department of Defense at all.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 6:16 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: xAI lost military deal when Palantir chose Anthropic
“He wasn't even approved at the Department of Defense for this application, right? Only XAI was, and they had lost. They had lost because Palantir picked Anthropic.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 18:07 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2026 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
O'Driscoll: Anthropic and SpaceX's next funding rounds will be IPOs
“You've got to believe that the next round for this, Antropic, and SpaceX are all public offerings.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 26:30 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 5, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic retained all seven founders while OpenAI lost most
“Which is why they still have the seven founders when the other guys across the street have lost almost all but one or two of the founders.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 5:41 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | OpenAI's $110BN Mega Round | Cursor Hits $2BN in ARR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Mitchell Green: $2B valuations for AI spinout ideas are complete lunacy
“People that spin out of Like, Anthropic or OpenAI and raise money at, like, two billion dollars for a freaking idea. Like, there's nothing more than an idea and a napkin. To us, that seems complete lunacy.”
Mitchell Green Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 0:31 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Stebbings: Dustin Moskovitz will make more money from Anthropic than Asana
“Dustin will make more money from his anthropic investment than he will from definitely from Asana.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 7, 2026 ▶ 44:45 Mitchell Green: Why 50% of VCs Should Not Exist · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 9, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Clements: Anthropic's app surpassed OpenAI's ChatGPT in the App Store
“Yeah, I mean, they passed GPT in the app store.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 38:49 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 9, 2026 negative
Opinion
Stebbings: Jason Lemkin says SaaS VC investing is exhausting compared to AI
“I was talking to my dear friend Jason Lemkin the other day, and he's like, fuck this. I've had enough of this. I just want to do an anthropic SPV and go home. I don't want to pick the winner in a SaaS company.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 25:39 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clements: Anthropic and select private AI companies could reach $1T valuations
“I think that company and a small handful of companies in the private market today are operating on a different plane. You know, I think it is not bombastic to say that some of those businesses could be trillion dollar companies.”
Miles Clements Mar 9, 2026 ▶ 35:45 "Cursor is Dead" is Total BS: Here is Why | Miles Clements · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will eventually submit to government demands to protect B2B revenue
“They won't clearly get a two hundred million dollar revenue deal with the U S department of war, but in a perfect world, if they bend the knee prevail on the law, what we've seen in multiple other situations is you end up at some kind of, you know, acquiescenc…”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 8:44 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 bearish
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Jason Lemkin Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 5:55 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 12, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Anthropic May Win Lawsuit But Lose Broader Government Battle
“The consensus is, in law, Anthropic would probably win a good slug of this case, which is different than saying they're going to win the fight.”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 0:00 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 16, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rajaram: Most bolt-on AI products are thin wrappers over OpenAI or Anthropic
“Most bolt on players are not doing it. They're simply using a GPT or anthropic model. And they're basically just adding a thin layer. You have to rebuild the entire experience end to end.”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 20:32 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Ramp data shows Anthropic grabbed 73% of new AI spend
“Just to start with the facts, they actually said 73% of new spending. Right. And what it is, and the same graph shows OpenAI is still actually ahead of Anthropic in terms of total spend. But the marginal buyer in the last six weeks, eight, 10 weeks has massive…”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 1:44 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mar 26, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Lemkin: VCs backing late-stage AI startups below Anthropic face zero exits
“So many folks sub-anthropic are going to get their arses burned because they'll end up in the dead zone. They'll have great companies without great IPOs and zero M and A opportunities.”
Jason Lemkin Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 1:08:49 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reports gross AWS revenue; OpenAI reports net Microsoft revenue
“There was this kind of whole meme of OpenAI reports net on their partner revenue and Entropic reports gross. And what they're saying there is if OpenAI sells through Microsoft and Microsoft takes some money off the top, OpenAI only reports the net amount. If A…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 30:31 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Application security companies must adopt AI analysis or become redundant
“If you were doing application security or code review for secure security code review, you're probably going to have to either incorporate how this works in your analysis or you'll be redundant.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 22:18 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Stebbings: Anthropic made $6B in February, exceeding Databricks' lifetime revenue
“28 day month of February, where they did six billion in revenue, which was more than Databricks has done in their entire lifetime.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 1:16 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaches $19B ARR while OpenAI hits $25B ARR
“Well, to be fair about Entropic and OpenAI, they have a very clear and sensible way they define ARR. What they say is they take the last, the average of the last four weeks to smooth out times to 13, because there were 1304 week periods in a year, which is mor…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 29:31 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Anthropic's stable leadership will out-execute drama-plagued OpenAI
“I have to think a company organized like that's just going to Out-execute someone with that level of drama.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 15:25 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 2, 2026 bearish
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Cybersecurity stocks fell 4-5% following Anthropic's Mythos leak
“And the result of that, and the result of that was a four or five percent decline in the average cybersecurity stock last Friday when this leak happened.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 5:57 OpenAI Kills Sora & Hits $100M ARR on Ads | Oura Going Public & Whoop Raises at $10BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 4, 2026 positive
Insight
Physical infrastructure businesses are most defensible against AI models
“I think some of the most defensible businesses in the age of, you know, anthropic and open AI are businesses that actually do something physical. Like they require actual specialization and they require infrastructure.”
Andrew Dudum Apr 4, 2026 ▶ 25:58 How Hims & Hers Reached a $4.3BN Market Cap on $2.3BN of Revenue | Andrew Dudum · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 negative
Opinion
Jason Lemkin: OpenAI investors received worse terms than Anthropic investors
“It really feels like the investors in OpenAI got a much worse deal in the last round than the Anthropic ones did.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 0:32 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jason Lemkin: Anthropic's training costs are one-quarter of OpenAI's
“Their training costs are a quarter of OpenAI.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 5:09 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI at $380B valuation is a better buy than Anthropic at $850B
“I would argue that you would buy OpenAI on one proviso. You could sit down with the board and say, what are you going to do about this? Because it doesn't take a lot to fix this thing, right? To just stop screwing around and focus, right? And, you know.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 26:38 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Anthropic reached $30B valuation in five years versus Salesforce's 25 years
“Getting to thirty billion up from nine billion at the start of the year. I mean I think it took, I mean, Salesforce is the largest software company, right? Or at least cloud one. And it took them 25 years to get there. Anthropic got there in five, but maybe th…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 1:44 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: OpenAI's executive reboot stems from Anthropic outpacing them
“If we step back a minute, it ties to Anthropic passing them. You don't just sit there and make no changes on the team when your competitor over the last six months has radically changed the competitive posture.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 12:26 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bearish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: xAI is at best fourth in LLMs while burning $12B yearly
“We just had a long conversation on Entropic versus OpenAI, And they're kind of number one and two in this space, and Gemini, Google is almost certainly number three, so x.ai is number four in the kind of model LLM space at best, burning twelve billion dollars …”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 37:40 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Drop in Security Stocks Following Anthropic Announcement Was Absurd
“The response of security stocks going down to the Anthropic announcement was absurd. I think anyone who's cutting back on the security budget in twenty-twenty-six is missing the point, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 1:21:59 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Jason Lemkin: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic combined IPO values will top past 20 years
“The big three, SpaceX plus OpenAI plus Anthropic, their value at IPO will exceed every other IPO for the last 20 years combined.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 0:43 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Reyna: OpenAI, Google, and ElevenLabs will buy new foundational model startups
“OpenAI and Anthropic will end up, and Google will end up buying, and 11 Labs will end up buying, like, all of the new foundational model companies that will be popping up and creating research and paying just, like, a few billion here, a few billion there, and…”
Carles Reina Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 1:23:19 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2026 positive
Opinion
Reyna: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cursor are enterprise AI's only blue-chip brands
“I think, like, the two companies that today have been able to make it is, or three companies, if you want, OpenAI, Anthropic, full respect for them, Cursor. The three of them, I think, for me, are, like, Cursor has killed enterprise unbelievably well. Yeah, th…”
Carles Reina Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 38:46 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 11, 2026 positive
Opinion
Reyna: I would choose to acquire Anthropic over OpenAI
“Anthropic. And I've put it online, like, multiple times.”
Carles Reina Apr 11, 2026 ▶ 1:23:38 ElevenLabs: Building an AI Sales Machine & Why We Set a 20x Sales Quota · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Midha: Invested hundreds of millions into Anthropic across multiple rounds
“I've had the privilege to invest many hundreds of millions of dollars into Anthropic across several rounds from the first to the most recent one.”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 1:01:20 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Midha: Amazon's Initial Deal With Anthropic Was $4 Billion
“And that's why, you know, it resulted in deep compute and capital for equity partnership with Amazon. That was originally four billion dollars.”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 18:46 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Midha: Anthropic Cut Initial Seed Target From $500M to $100M
“Remember we originally tried to go out and raise five hundred million and then had to re-anchor to only raising a hundred million dollar seed round”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 17:47 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 positive
Opinion
Midha: Anthropic's mission has always been aligned with US national interests
“Anthropic, I will say, you know, the mission and vision has always been very I think it's always been very American aligned, right? They've always said, hey, America is, The crown jewel of the world in terms of innovation. This is where we're located. Anthropi…”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 13:47 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Midha: Anthropic is the fastest-growing business of all time
“Tell them to give me a call when they'd like to be investors in the world's fastest growing business of all time, and then they can lecture me about public benefit governance and market share adoptions.”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 21:17 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 negative
Disclosure
Midha: 21 of 22 Sand Hill Road VCs Rejected Anthropic
“So I introduced them to 22, you know, friends up and down Sandhill road. And so there's some investors there and we got 21 no's, right?”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 17:07 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 14, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Midha: Compute shortages will prevent top AI labs from hitting revenue targets
“I think if there's any reason why OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, and so on don't hit their revenue targets over the next few years, it's because they won't have access to enough compute.”
Anjney Midha Apr 14, 2026 ▶ 48:23 The Early Days of Anthropic & How 21 of 22 VCs Rejected It | The Four Bottlenecks in AI | Anj Midha · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 neutral
Opinion
O'Driscoll: AI race is two-way fight between Anthropic and OpenAI
“I think it's a two-way fight. Antropic has the advantage of clarity and focus. OpenAI has the advantage of the consumer business.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 0:36 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
O'Driscoll: SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO in that exact order
“SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI in that order.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 1:23:55 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 positive
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Skeptics are wrong to dismiss Anthropic's Claude Mythos capabilities
“Those people who said it's not a big deal are wrong and entropic is right.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 2:36 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 neutral
What-if
Rory O'Driscoll: Scale passed on early Anthropic deal over pricing and doomerism
“What I realized is if I'd met them at the sea, which I didn't, because it was outside our price bracket, but if I'd met them, I would have done exactly what you did, Jess, and I would have listened to the doom warnings, and I said, that's all silly and wrong, …”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 10:18 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 positive
Opinion
Lemkin: Dario Amodei is the second-greatest founder behind Elon Musk
“What I mean is listen, he may well be the second greatest founder of all time behind Elon. Look what he's done in five years, right? Five years to thirty billion, the grit, the greatest grudge startup of all time.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 7:51 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 neutral
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 54:11 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 16, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jason Lemkin: Anthropic adding Novartis CEO signals an imminent IPO
“The fact that Anthropic just added the Novartis CEO to the board, that's a sign they're getting ready to IPO as soon as they can.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 16, 2026 ▶ 1:24:02 SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 18, 2026 negative
Opinion
Geoffrey Woo: Elected Leaders, Not Tech Founders, Should Decide Military Policy
“Like, I feel like it's a very egocentric to say that, hey, I built the tech. I get to make the decision for the rest of the world. If we believe in democracy, which we do, then it's like, okay, then the democratically elected leader Gets that call.”
Jeffrey Wu Apr 18, 2026 ▶ 40:42 Jake Paul: Traditional VC is Toast & Attention is More Valuable than Cash · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 20, 2026 neutral
Prediction Held up
Levie: Enterprises cannot shift AI liability to providers like Anthropic
“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”
Aaron Levie Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 32:51 Aaron Levie: Everyone is Wrong; We'll Have More Developers in 5 Years · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 20, 2026
Prediction Held up
Levie: Enterprise AI adoption will be multi-vendor rather than single-source
“Companies are going to adopt multiple of these systems. They don't want to be single vendor. They don't want to be, they don't want to have single vendor in this stack. One service goes down, or one changes its APIs, or one has a new commercial model. You're g…”
Aaron Levie Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 48:53 Aaron Levie: Everyone is Wrong; We'll Have More Developers in 5 Years · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will target a public market debut in Q4
“So my assumption is these guys are going to go public, as we said, October Q-IV time period if they can.”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 47:13 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Anthropic SPVs are charging up to 8% in upfront fees
“Some of the package pricing on these SPVs for Anthropic has just been the most egregious face ripping I've ever seen. I mean it's like, it's just, oh, I mean like eight percent up front.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 1:09:32 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Anthropic secondary market pricing has reached $1 trillion
“Every dollar wants its home in Anthropic right now, and it's caused secondary market prices to surge to a trillion dollars for Anthropic.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 42:49 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 23, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Lemkin: Anthropic will never build direct Figma or Adobe competitors
“But I do not believe Anthropic will ever build a direct Figma or Illustrator or Adobe competitor. They don't have to maim them.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 55:24 Cursor Acquired for $60BN | Anthropic Hits $1TRN in Secondary Markets & Figma, Adobe, Canva Dead? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 25, 2026
Disclosure
Masad: Replit once sent more AI tokens to Google than to Anthropic
“Actually, at some point we were sending more tokens to Google than we were sending Anthropic, despite Anthropic being that kind of the core workhorse.”
Amjad Masad Apr 25, 2026 ▶ 6:49 Replit CEO: Why the SaaS Apocalypse is Justified & Why Coding Models are Plateauing | Amjad Masad · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 25, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Masad: Anthropic operates at 40% gross margins due to Nvidia chip costs
“Even, like, Anthropic, every hundred dollars they make, 60 goes to NVIDIA, like, you know, their margins are public, it's 40%, right?”
Amjad Masad Apr 25, 2026 ▶ 11:45 Replit CEO: Why the SaaS Apocalypse is Justified & Why Coding Models are Plateauing | Amjad Masad · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Adam Foroughi: Building a Startup Merely as an LLM Interface Is Extremely Risky
“I would be very, very nervous if I was building a business as an interface on top of those companies.”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 33:55 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026 positive
Opinion
Adam Foroughi: Anthropic Is Performing Best in LLM Model and Product Releases
“Probably Anthropic is doing the best in terms of releasing models and product in the large language model space as of this moment.”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 55:35 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 27, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Adam Foroughi: Anthropic Model Rollouts Are Constrained by Compute and Risk Concerns
“Is Anthropix slowing down the rollout because they don't have the computer? Is Anthropix slowing down the rollout because they're really concerned about the risk? It's probably somewhere in between.”
Adam Foroughi Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 1:04:14 AppLovin CEO: Why Founders Shouldn't Angel Invest & Why the Best Don't Need Mentorship · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI lost market share to Anthropic in late 2024
“And there's no doubt in the back half of last year, OpenAI failed at the first part of that job. They didn't build great models. And as a result, their traction relative to entropics declined markedly. Their market share declined markedly, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 2:12 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Anthropic took OpenAI's market share by dominating AI coding
“The rate of growth was incredible. And some of that was market share, right? It wasn't all AI. Some of it was market share and it stole market share. And Elon was clear about this, that Anthropic had quote, something special in coding, which underestimates how…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 3:21 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: Anthropic's Claude holds no competitive advantage for most workflows
“As workflows expand to do everything, as agents do more, they will pick the LLM, and I see no competitive advantage to Claude for most workflows.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 4:21 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Agent benchmark ranked Anthropic ahead of OpenAI and Gemini
“In fact, the order is Anthropic. And so the greater it graded Anthropic just above OpenAI and then Gemini was just down here.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 7:58 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI has compute but flawed models; Anthropic lacks compute
“OpenAI got one job right, they have enough compute, and they got the model wrong, so that's why they're in trouble. And Entropic did it the exact opposite way, right? They got the model perfect. In fact, they may have over-succeeded, and as a result of that, t…”
Rory O’Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 19:49 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Apr 30, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
O'Driscoll invests $500 in retail VC product for Anthropic and SpaceX exposure
“I felt this morning, I put the literally the lowest amount possible in the VC product, so I am now an individual investor in Anthropix, SpaceX, and OpenAI, and even as we speak, I'm adding the logos to our website, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 1:19:31 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 7, 2026 positive
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic should accept a $50B private round instead of an IPO
“We live in a world where they can just send out a frickin' email, and people respond in 48 hours, and it's no drama, and they take the terms they get. So yes, they should grab the fifty billion.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 7, 2026 ▶ 1:04:31 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 7, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Developers consistently choose OpenAI and Anthropic over open-source models
“There are millions of developers who have that same choice every day, and they are choosing over and over again because of the model or because of the harness to go with the big two, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll May 7, 2026 ▶ 20:55 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 7, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic capture almost all commercial LLM revenue
“And when you look at what's actually going on, the big two guys are getting all the money. Gemini, for some reason, doesn't appear to be able to do a great job of developing code or love and just getting that kind of traction because coding is where it's all h…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 7, 2026 ▶ 20:13 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 7, 2026 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Anthropic's massive private raise decreases the likelihood of a 2026 IPO
“I think the combination of the two decreases the odds of the IPO this year.”
Jason Lemkin May 7, 2026 ▶ 1:08:13 Anthropic's Raise & What It Means for Potential IPO? Mag7: Google & Amazon Up, Meta & Microsoft Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 9, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Weitzman: I use Anthropic for everything and almost never use ChatGPT
“I right now use Anthropic for everything, and I do not use Chachapiti for almost anything”
Cliff Weitzman May 9, 2026 ▶ 1:45:15 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 9, 2026 positive
Opinion
Weitzman: Anthropic is running circles around OpenAI in coding
“Anthropic is running circles around them right now, like especially in the coding arena.”
Cliff Weitzman May 9, 2026 ▶ 1:45:09 Cliff Weitzman: What I Learned from 100 of the World’s Top CEOs & Why Tokens Will Outspend Salaries · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic deal makes up 40% of Google's future backlog
“I think now the anthropic rev commit is about 40% of Google's total future backlog.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 14, 2026 ▶ 13:19 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Lemkin: Anthropic will not build end-user apps in legal or CX
“I don't think there's any chance that Anthropic is going to do applications in CX and actually, and I could be wrong. I will bet you a lot of money. They're not going to go all the way in legal at the app app.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 30:02 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Standard startup charters have required board transfer approvals since 2020
“Maybe four or five years ago, every set of charter documents say no transfer without the board permission, just like anthropic and open eye.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 5:37 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: Anthropic has secured more compute capacity than OpenAI
“And now Anthropik, I hate the five D eight D chess metaphor, but now it's gonna, it's figured out a way to have more capacity than open AI.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 10:44 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Anthropic publicly warned Menlo Ventures against SPVs last year
“Anthropic last year warned Menlo, one of its best investors and others, enough with the SPVs, they said publicly, enough with the damn SPVs.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 5:48 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026 negative
Opinion
Lemkin: Anthropic secondary sales restriction is an overblown social media non-issue
“To me, this story seems like a nothing burger made up on social media.”
Jason Lemkin May 14, 2026 ▶ 5:23 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 14, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Anthropic committed $200B to Google Cloud over five years
“They also did a deal committing two hundred billion to Google over, I believe it was a five-year period.”
Harry Stebbings May 14, 2026 ▶ 12:22 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 18, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Josh Browder: Anthropic will reach $1 trillion in revenue
“I think Anthropic will get to a trillion in revenue.”
Josh Browder May 18, 2026 ▶ 1:29:57 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 18, 2026 negative
Opinion
Browder: Tech wealth gap between AI and laid-off workers is unsustainable
“For every anthropic employee who's making 20 to a hundred million, there's 7000 block employees being laid off. It's not sustainable. You can't have 50,000 people with all the money.”
Josh Browder May 18, 2026 ▶ 0:49 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 18, 2026
Insight
Browder: Great founders focus on tactical customer sales over vague partnerships
“A D minus answer would be some vague nonsense, like I want to get a partnership with Anthropic. An A plus answer would be I'm going to like fly to Milwaukee to meet with a dentist to get them to sign my 500 dollar a month SaaS plan.”
Josh Browder May 18, 2026 ▶ 7:48 Turning Peter Thiel's $100K into $10M Angel Portfolio & Why VCs Can Be Sharks | Josh Browder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: $1T AI revenue requires taking 20% of engineering payroll
“My rough math says it's something roughly like five or seven percent Of every knowledge worker salary and 20% of every engineering salary.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 21, 2026 ▶ 12:41 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Salesforce's $300M Anthropic spend is 4% of developer payroll
“Salesforce spends 5.8 billion dollars a year on engineers, right? It's, so it's roughly four percent of the spend. If you want it per head, they have twenty-k developers out of their total 83 k heads, so it's 15 k per head per year, which is 1.2 k per head per…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 21, 2026 ▶ 10:07 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic growth will stall unless enterprise software scales
“If Sierra doesn't grow, let me put it bluntly, if Sierra doesn't grow, then at some point, OpenAI and Entropic will stop growing because their customers today are primarily software companies for coding, right? And selling through software companies to corpora…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 21, 2026 ▶ 43:14 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 positive
Opinion
Lemkin: Anthropic Intentionally Discounted Valuation to Close Funding in Days
“I actually think these rounds, ironically, the last two intentionally traded at a discount in order to not rip people off and get it done low drama in days.”
Jason Lemkin May 21, 2026 ▶ 7:21 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI has surplus compute tokens while Anthropic does not
“And therefore my conclusion is OpenAI has surplus tokens and Anthropic does not.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 21, 2026 ▶ 1:09:45 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 21, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Is the Best Value Deal in Venture Capital
“If ARR multiples are the proxy for value, then this is the best value in the venture universe”
Rory O'Driscoll May 21, 2026 ▶ 4:30 Anthropic Raises $30BN at $900BN Price | SpaceX Files S1: How Does it Trade | Cerebras Smashes Day 1 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Chad Peets says Anthropic is inflating the executive compensation bubble
“Anthropic is, is inflating that bubble. Not that they're doing anything wrong. They just have so much money they can spend. And so they are setting benchmarks that the rest of the market is trying to keep up with.”
Chad Peets May 23, 2026 ▶ 47:17 Why Anthropic Are Causing a Comp Crisis & Why You’d Never Hire From Salesforce or ServiceNow · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Degnan: Salespeople at mega-funded AI startups are passive passengers lacking skill development
“These companies all, pretty much everyone's a passenger, because there is no accountability. You're not learning anything from a sales, you know, perspective. Eventually that will come to bite you in the, in your butt, in your career.”
Chris Degnan May 23, 2026 ▶ 28:23 Why Anthropic Are Causing a Comp Crisis & Why You’d Never Hire From Salesforce or ServiceNow · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 23, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Peets: Anthropic sales organization operates on group quotas rather than individual metrics
“They have a group quota.”
Chad Peets May 23, 2026 ▶ 25:48 Why Anthropic Are Causing a Comp Crisis & Why You’d Never Hire From Salesforce or ServiceNow · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 23, 2026
Assertion Supported
Peets: Anthropic offered sales reps $1.2M compensation packages
“Like if Anthropic, for example, when they were at their three 80 valuation, they were offering reps, call it a 1,000,002.”
Chad Peets May 23, 2026 ▶ 49:25 Why Anthropic Are Causing a Comp Crisis & Why You’d Never Hire From Salesforce or ServiceNow · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Peets: Sales reps will not learn great sales skills at Anthropic
“If you're talking about learning how to be a great salesperson, I don't think you're going to get that, Ananthropic.”
Chad Peets May 23, 2026 ▶ 49:00 Why Anthropic Are Causing a Comp Crisis & Why You’d Never Hire From Salesforce or ServiceNow · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Will Pass OpenAI in Scale and Profitability Shortly
“Within a couple of quarters, Anthropic will be visibly and obviously ahead. Profitable, growing more quickly, and bigger.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 0:14 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: $2M Revenue Per Employee Is New Normal For Scaling Startups
“I think two million per employee is going to become the new normal as you scale. And that will mean that your high performers can make two to three times what they used to make, just like an anthropic because you just don't need as many people and you're going…”
Jason Lemkin May 28, 2026 ▶ 31:53 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Standalone AI Infra Tools Will Emerge Outside OpenAI and Anthropic
“There probably is going to be five or six things like a database, like a search engine, like some kind of observability where, you know, over the next two or three years, revealed preference will say, you know, the vast majority of developers realize they need…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 1:18:53 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Matched Its Full Prior Year Revenue in Q1
“So, Anthropic has done as much in Q-one as all of last year, and OpenAI has done 30% of what they've done last year in Q-one.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 0:06 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Requires $4 to $5 CapEx Per Dollar of Revenue
“In the case of Entropic, even though you are not bearing those capital needs today because you are lucky enough to have hyperscalers foolish enough to build on your behalf, for every dollar of revenue that you add, someone has to invest four or 5,000,000,004 o…”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 41:14 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026
Insight
O'Driscoll: Market Runner-Ups Must Not Wait for the Leader to IPO
“When you're number two, what you do not do is wait till the number one prices goes public, and then you come out as a pale version of that.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 37:17 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 28, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: xAI Rented Colossus Cluster to Anthropic for $1.25B Monthly
“They've rented that to Entropic for 1.25 billion a month, right, with a, I think, a ninety-day cancellation clause on either side.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 28, 2026 ▶ 50:13 OpenAI & SpaceX S1 Drops | Layoffs at Cloudflare & ClickUp | OpenRouter & Polsia Raise Mega Rounds · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2026 positive
Opinion
Laqua: Anduril and Anthropic are philosophically distinct yet both potential winners
“You know, a metaphysical level, there's a really big difference between Andrel and like Anthropic, right? Those are like super different companies. And I think both of those could be good companies.”
Nico Laqua May 30, 2026 ▶ 51:28 The Hardest Working Startup in America | Nico Laqua, Co-founder & CEO @ Corgi · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Nico Laqua: Corgi spends $400,000 monthly on Anthropic and zero on OpenAI
“We spend maybe like 400,000 dollars per month on, on Anthropic and zero dollars on open AI at the moment.”
Nico Laqua May 30, 2026 ▶ 49:23 The Hardest Working Startup in America | Nico Laqua, Co-founder & CEO @ Corgi · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
May 30, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Nico Laqua: Anthropic is out-executing OpenAI in enterprise workflow automation
“Right now Anthropic, frankly speaking, has been out executing OpenAI. Their product's much better. You know, we use the best product in, in every category, at least from a, from an enterprise or like workflow automation perspective Anthropic's better.”
Nico Laqua May 30, 2026 ▶ 50:13 The Hardest Working Startup in America | Nico Laqua, Co-founder & CEO @ Corgi · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 1, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Majority of AI Inference Will Run on Open-Source or Distilled Models
“I think that majority of inference in five years is going to be using a open source or custom fine-tuned or distilled model, not using a frontier model.”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 50:21 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 1, 2026 negative
Opinion
Foody: Europe should concede foundation AI model race to US tech giants
“I would accept that, yeah. I think that maybe it's worth having some post training capabilities because there is going to be value to distillation and some of the work that happens after foundation models are built, and there's definitely going to be some valu…”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 1:01:35 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 1, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
OpenAI or Anthropic Will Exceed $10 Trillion Valuation Within Five Years
“I could definitely see one of them being a 10 trillion dollar company maybe even significantly higher. It feels Like the opportunity associated with being the frontier model is so large that it will just like eat up so much of the other demand within the econo…”
Brendan Foody Jun 1, 2026 ▶ 51:10 Mercor CEO: Why Application Layer Companies Have No Moat & The Cost of Hiring AI Researchers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 4, 2026 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2036
Stebbings: Menlo to make $10B carry on Anthropic, Founders Fund more on SpaceX
“Menlo will make ten billion dollars in carry Spot will too, plus Founders Fund will make more than that from SpaceX.”
Harry Stebbings Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 1:25:09 Anthropic Files to Go Public | Cognition Raises $1BN at $26BN Valuation | The 996 Work Ethic · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 11, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Sales Force Will Resemble Oracle's Within 5 Years
“The entropic sale force in five years will look like the Oracle sales force, the Microsoft sale force, and the IBM sale force, 50 years ago”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 46:19 SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Musk earns $2B monthly selling compute to Anthropic and Google
“He found two of his biggest competitors who want to buy from him. You know, he's getting two billion a month, 1.25 from an topic and nine 50 from, no, the other way around, nine 50 from a topic, 1.25 from Google, the other way around, two billion a month. Two …”
Rory O’Driscoll Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 52:22 SpaceX Launches Largest Ever IPO | OpenAI Files to Go Public | Uber Cuts 23% of HR · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Opinion
Grinberg: AI labor displacement warnings are disingenuous hype designed for mega-fundraising
“I think that has been not only like disingenuine and wrong, but it's like really hurt the psychology of a lot of people, developers, like just people in the world. Does AI a disservice? Does the world a disservice? Because this is again, talking about the use …”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:21:31 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 negative
Insight
Stebbings: VCs use elite founder credentials as a crutch amid AI uncertainty
“Fundamentally, there is intense uncertainty around what Anthropic and OpenAI will do and who they will kill at the application layer. And so in a world where we desperately seek certainty, we look for validators, and the validators of someone being a math Olym…”
Harry Stebbings Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 29:09 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 13, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Grinberg: Anthropic is a safer IPO investment than OpenAI due to volatility
“In my mind, the answer here is, I think they're approximately equivalent. Like, to me, it doesn't really matter. The biggest reason that affects like the EV is like volatility of the company. That's the only, like, cause I think from the business perspective, …”
Matan Grinberg Jun 13, 2026 ▶ 1:20:46 OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Open-Source | Token Maxing, AI Hangovers & The Coming ROI Reckoning · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 bullish
Opinion
SpaceX is a unique N-of-1 company compared to OpenAI and Anthropic
“SpaceX. Why? It's an N of one company. Like, Anthropic and OpenAI can claim they do whatever each other does. But SpaceX is the only company building space infrastructure for connectivity.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 1:25:50 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Anthropic will die within 12 months if complacent on Claude Code
“If Anthropic thinks cloud code is already a win, In six or 12 months from now, they won't even be around.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 6:42 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 negative
Insight
GPU cloud providers depend heavily on competitive open-source AI models
“If open source models stopped to actually be good, where the gap between them, the frontier is like more than 12 months or like 15 months, 18 months, then I don't think these companies really have a business model because they're not going to be able to host. …”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 44:25 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Perplexity differentiates by orchestrating across competing AI models
“And the way we differentiate ourselves at perplexity Is we don't just orchestrate across tools and files and connectors. We also orchestrate across models. That is the differentiation that Anthropic and OpenAI cannot claim”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 14:07 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026
Assertion Contradicted
Anthropic acquired a wet lab facility
“Anthropic bought a wet lab.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 24:35 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026 negative
Opinion
Dario Amodei's doom messaging on AI job loss does a disservice
“Yeah. I think so. I mean, I think, you know, they have contradictory messages in their own, like different social engagements so far, where the most reason when I heard was there is no evidence that AI is taking over jobs.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 58:29 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 15, 2026
Assertion Supported
Anthropic lobbied heavily for US AI export controls
“And definitely like companies like Anthropic lobbied very hard for it.”
Aravind Srinivas Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 54:25 Perplexity CEO: Micron Will Be More Valuable Than Meta & How Export Controls Helped Not Hurt China · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Randle: Frontier AI models can now autonomously execute cyber attacks
“Zooming out, I think the most important thing in all this Is that we step back from Anthropic and realize that the models are to place now, whether they're from Anthropic or elsewhere, where they can autonomously find and chain multiple vulnerabilities togethe…”
Everett Randle Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 37:06 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 18, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year
“I mean, statistically, more than 50%, yes, because in a world where this doesn't get solved for four or five months, there's so many other problems that our heads are gonna hurt, right? So you have to say, if a problem, in a world where it does get solved, the…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 38:10 Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix & Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2026 positive
Opinion
Petersen: Anthropic is a better investment than OpenAI at equal valuation
“I think I'm going Anthropic. No offense, because Sam's a friend of mine, but. Yeah, the enterprise business seems great. And the team, I think there's a lot of value of like this cohesive team that's been together forever, and OpenAI's had ups and downs, and p…”
Ryan Petersen Jun 20, 2026 ▶ 26:36 Flexport CEO: Two Questions Every Founder Needs to Ask · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2026 positive
Opinion
Petersen: OpenAI and Anthropic deserve high valuations for miraculous products
“Like they deserve it. They're this, these things are just incredible, miraculous products.”
Ryan Petersen Jun 20, 2026 ▶ 13:39 Flexport CEO: Two Questions Every Founder Needs to Ask · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 20, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Petersen: Flexport will shift to open-source AI models to lower costs
“We're using OpenAI. We're using Anthropic. We're going to increasingly use open source models to save money, but also because we don't today have a budget constraint on our Anthropic contract.”
Ryan Petersen Jun 20, 2026 ▶ 15:02 Flexport CEO: Two Questions Every Founder Needs to Ask · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic found the top consumer tech market in 20 years
“OpenAI and Anthropic have discovered the single best tech market in the, in terms of consumer demand in the last 20 years, and they should put all their effort into meeting that demand, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 1:20:47 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic yield 40-70% gross margins on enterprise inference
“They have an enterprise base, which is, it has, you know, between 40 and 70% in, you know, gross margin just on inference.”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 36:08 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Menlo Ventures raised a $3B fund following its Anthropic bet
“Menlo just raised a three billion dollar fund after 50 years on the back of a crazy bed in Anthropik that, that, that went very well, right? When the margins were crazy”
Jason Lemkin Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 51:07 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 25, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic delayed shipping its latest model due to US government concerns
“We're seeing Anthropic unable to ship the most recent model until they satisfy the concerns of the US government.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 25:20 DeepSeek Raises at $50B | The Rise of Open Source vs OpenAI & Anthropic | OpenAI Builds Own Chip · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 27, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
OpenAI and Anthropic IPO Performance Hinges on SpaceX
“I think if SpaceX performs well, the OpenAI Anthropic IPOs will also go very well. I think if SpaceX performs poorly, then those are going to have a hard time.”
Paul Erlang Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 53:04 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Salesforce's $300M Anthropic Spend Equals 3.8% of Developer Salaries
“Right now, you know, if you look at Mark Benioff, he said they spent three hundred million on Anthropik. That's about 3.8% of developer salaries spent on tokens.”
Harry Stebbings Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 26:35 How We Got Fred Wilson, Benchmark and Index to Invest $94M | Why Robinhood's Strategy is Wrong · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Anthropic stock will be extremely volatile post-IPO
“You know, it'll be interesting if Anthropic really does IPO in the coming months, right, if it stays on track, I have to imagine it's going to be one of those volatile stocks out there, right? Even a hint of news will send it up and down math.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 38:17 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Letter Tells Senate Chinese AI Firms Distill Their Models
“Antropic the company said actually in a letter to the Senate Banking Committee recently that basically the Chinese open source companies are bootstrapping their development of their state-of-the-art models by effectively breaching the terms of service of Antro…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 18:25 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Settled Book Copyright Lawsuit Over IP Scraping
“All the foundation models, including Anthropic, were trained on other people's IP. To the point where Antropic recently settled litigation with a whole bunch of copyright holders on books because they had, quote, unquote, unfairly, to use Dario's word, applied…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 17:43 Coinbase Cuts AI Spend by 50% | Kalshi's $40B Valuation & Impending IPO | The Year for SaaS Roll-Ups · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 6, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Salesforce spent $300M on Anthropic tokens for its developers
“And Mark Benioff said that he spent three hundred million dollars on Anthropic, which on specifically for the dev team, which equates to 3.8% of dev Salaries spent on tokens.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 21:44 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 6, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Mignano: Lightspeed Growth Fund is phenomenal due to top AI bets
“I think the Lightspeed Growth Fund is phenomenal. I mean, Again, they've done Anthropic, they've done XAI, they've done SpaceX, they've done amazing, amazing investments over the past, you know I mean, over the history of the firm, but really over the past fou…”
Mike Mignano Jul 6, 2026 ▶ 1:05:05 Why Now is the Time for the App Layer | Why Startups Should be TokenMaxxing | Mike Mignano, USV · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic Lied About Books and YouTube Training Data
“Open AI, an anthropic, Kind of lied about the books, and they definitely lied about training on YouTube”
Jason Lemkin Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 31:42 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: OpenAI reached $12B and Anthropic $4B in GAAP revenue
“The rate at which, you know, OpenAI and Tropic got to four and twelve billion, respectively, other way around, sorry, 12 and four billion, respectively, in GAAP revenue, never before seen, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 1:14:18 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: OpenAI and Anthropic have eliminated equity vesting cliffs
“Well, now that they're, now that there aren't even vesting schedules at Open Ananthropic, those issues have been solved. Right? A lot of startups don't have vesting schedules for top employees, right? It doesn't mean you vest into all your stock, right? Sorry,…”
Jason Lemkin Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 1:25:54 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026 negative
Assertion Contradicted
O'Driscoll: AI developers now require Washington permission before shipping software
“Six months ago, you could ship software like a free man, and now you have to get permission from Washington before you do it. It's a big change, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 2:07 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
O'Driscoll: AI capex spending will be stopped by demand, not supply
“This isn't, this spending isn't going to stop because the supply side says stop. Facebook aren't going to say stop. Google isn't going to say stop. Microsoft isn't going to say stop. Really, it boils down to the demand side. As long as, and enterprise customer…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 41:39 Enterprises Fear Frontier Models | Sam Altman Offers Trump 5% of OpenAI | DeepSeek Builds Own Chips · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Stebbings: AI developer tools like Cursor remain dramatically underpriced
“So no, I don't at all for Cursor or for any of the dev tools. I think it's still dramatically underpriced. When you look at Mark Benioff spending three hundred million on Anthropic, it's 3.7% of developer salaries. I think that's relatively small.”
Harry Stebbings Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 33:12 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Opinion
Jain: Anthropic is an application-level platform, not just a model vendor
“So they very much, you should consider them an application level company, not just a model company.”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 17:08 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 11, 2026 negative
Opinion
Jain: Anthropic's vertical AI feature packs are shallow
“They are launching these sort of vertical packs, but I think they're quite quite shallow in my opinion.”
Arvind Jain Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 8:48 ⁠Why OpenAI and Anthropic Won't Win the App Layer | Glean Founder · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 13, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abrahami: Wix stock trades on OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google news
“We're trading on others. Companies news. We're not trading on Wix news. We're trading mostly on what OpenAI or Antropic are saying, or Google is saying, right?”
Avishai Abrahami Jul 13, 2026 ▶ 21:18 Wix Founder: Will Base44 Win the Vibe-Coding Wars? | The Truth About the Economics of Vibe-Coding · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 16, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Daniela Amodei effectively runs Anthropic
“Based on my understanding of the entropic org structure, you in fact don't work for the man, you work for the woman, right? Daniella runs everything.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 35:27 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 16, 2026 neutral
Insight
O'Driscoll: Major Startup Breakthroughs Rely on Boundary Pushing Legalized Upon Success
“So many breakthroughs rely on a little bit of pushing the boundaries. I mean, Uber did with taxi regulation. Airbnb did with regulation. You're right. Polymarket did in terms of how they're regulated. So I'm actually going to get off my high horse and say you …”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 59:52 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 16, 2026 neutral
Opinion
O'Driscoll: AI labs pursue life sciences for purpose over market size
“So I think actually people's interest in doing life science is one third TAM expansion and two thirds, shit, I'm putting everyone at a job. The least I can do is keep them alive. I want to do good because I want to have meaning. It's the search for meaning and…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 34:24 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 16, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Active CIOs will implement model tiering to control AI spend
“When the pressure on spend is out there, the sentence you said that really resonated with me is every company is going to have an internal tiering. They might all buy it from OpenAI or Anthropic, but every company with a CIO who's half awake It's going to have…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 15:38 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 16, 2026 negative
What-if
O'Driscoll: Anthropic could not have been founded in Massachusetts due to non-competes
“I wonder if Anthropa could have been started in Massachusetts. Probably not, right? No, you're exactly right.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 7:17 Zuckerberg Back on X Challenging Codex & Claude Code | SK Hynix’s $26BN IPO · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Jul 18, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Curative's Anthropic API Spend Grew 6x Monthly Into Millions
“Our anthropic cost over the last six or seven months has six X'd every month from, you know, a base of, you know, a couple of tens of thousands of dollars now up to millions of dollars a month.”
Fred Turner Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 51:17 We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO
Jul 18, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
AI Labs Will Not Compete In Regulated Complex Industries
“I think things that have some, like, regulation around them, and are, like, complex industries, yes, they're gonna see the advantages of the models, but they're not gonna see competition from Anthropik or OpenAI.”
Fred Turner Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:11:31 We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO
Jul 18, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Corporate Anthropic Spend Will Reach 2x To 5x Engineer Salaries
“Between maybe two and five X would be the two and five X salary.”
Fred Turner Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:25:18 We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO
Jul 18, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fred Turner: Anthropic Could Reach A $10 Trillion Valuation
“I think it could be 10 trillion.”
Fred Turner Jul 18, 2026 ▶ 1:00:21 We Built Our Own Salesforce in Months. Here's Why We're Cancelling the $600K Contract | Curative CEO
Jul 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Qiao: Anthropic relies on a single-AGI belief over specialization
“I view Anthropic as a company fully believing AGI.”
Lin Qiao Jul 20, 2026 ▶ 5:57 The Open-Source AI Reality | How Token Costs Will Fall 10X & Usage Will Explode 100X | Lin Qiao
Jul 23, 2026 neutral
Opinion
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic 2026-2027 Growth Is Key Metric for AI Market
“Going back to this first sentence, the only thing that matters is the open AI and anthropic growth rate in 26 and 27.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 23, 2026 ▶ 1:26:53 Should the US Ban Chinese Open-Source Models | OpenRouter's Chance To Sell | Stripe Buying PayPal
Jul 23, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic training data spend exceeds non-Cursor AI app revenues
“There's probably more money being spent on training data for the foundation models, you know, the Mercosurge and that, than pretty much any app company outside of Cursor. In fact, probably the sum of all the apps companies outside of Cursor, right, you know, a…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 23, 2026 ▶ 38:16 Should the US Ban Chinese Open-Source Models | OpenRouter's Chance To Sell | Stripe Buying PayPal
Jul 27, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anthropic matched ChatGPT performance pre-launch using 1/50th of the capital
“All the benchmarks you could see that they were kind of better or at the same level of performances as ChatGPT at the time. And they'd spent like, I don't know, A 50th of the capital.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 3:25 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Menlo Ventures' Anthropic position is worth over $10 billion
“No, our position is, is north of that, but that's not that you can do the math on what carry usually is.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 55:02 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Enterprise AI workloads will split across proprietary and open-source models
“So I think, you know, you're going to have the combination of something like that, a family of models from Anthropic, and then a set of open source models and things that you train with your own data, and you're going to look across that whole tapestry and say…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 26:37 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Menlo Ventures invested $10M in Anthropic before raising $500M+ SPV
“The first check was a little over 10 and then, you know, the, so that was kind of the starter check because the average, like I said, you try to kind of, you know, venture fund kind of have this kind of narrow window of what you invest, but then the next round…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 5:16 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Open-source models will not displace top foundation models like Anthropic
“I think the foundation models, let's say specifically Anthropic, have such special models. This can be hard for somebody to just kind of say, I've used open source with my data. It's going to be functional and positive for some amount of what you're doing, but…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 0:00 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Menlo Ventures broke its standard investment criteria to back Anthropic
“And I'll, that's, I'll take you back to our investment in, in Anthropic. Like, same thing. It's like, This doesn't really fit. This isn't what we normally do, but wow, if this works, I mean, you got such a special founder in Dario and an amazing market.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 44:42 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Menlo's $500M+ Anthropic SPV was the firm's first ever
“Menlo had never done an SPV before. It just happened to be over five hundred million.”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 15:42 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Using Anthropic drives higher retention and revenue than open-source models
“What's happening is companies see this, like, yes, I can get lower cost, but if I use Anthropic, it actually increases my customer retention. I generate more revenue. I get users to Engage with the platform more. And that is what the data is suggesting now wit…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 25:06 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 27, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Menlo Ventures signed Anthropic term sheet two weeks after LP meeting
“So we literally came out of that meeting and said, all right, we've got to do this. We've got to figure out a way to lead the round. And two weeks later, We signed a term sheet. We, you know, aggregated all the kind of demand from RLPs and folks we knew and, y…”
Matt Murphy Jul 27, 2026 ▶ 12:07 Will Open-Source Threaten Anthropic's Business & Do Margins Matter in a World of AI | Matt Murphy
Jul 29, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic is pushing policies to de facto ban open-weight models
“While they're not saying they want to ban these things, they're advocating a series of steps that would add up to de facto banning or at least slowing them down.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 4:51 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Jul 29, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: OpenAI is lobbying in Washington for AI regulation alongside Anthropic
“They're signing this publicly while at the same time lobbying in Washington right alongside Anthropic for a regulatory process.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 5:47 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Jul 29, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Stripe Captures Standard 2.75% Fees Across Leading AI Companies
“They basically signed up all the AI companies that are selling shit online, right? And they shouldn't be getting anything like the money they're probably getting from the open AI and entropics in terms of interchange fees. But who's got time to optimize that s…”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 1:12:27 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Jul 29, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: New AI Adopters Will Swamp Any Budget Cuts by Heavy Spenders
“And then there's 95% of companies who've barely put their toe in the water. And if even a quarter of them put their toe in the water, the growth from the toe dippers Will swamp the reduction from the token maxes.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 40:48 Jensen's Open-Weights Letter | Google Cloud Grows 82% But The Market Tanks
Jul 31, 2026 positive
Insight
Park: Simile Optimizes for Human Biases Over Super-Rationality
“So the way we see it is if you look at large length model companies today, fundamentally the task they have at hand is to create super rational, intelligent machines that are good at coding, that are good at natural sciences and mathematics. Similarly doesn't …”
Joon Sung Park Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 7:09 The AI Company Simulating the Entire Economy | Simile Co-founder & CEO, Joon Sung Park
Jul 31, 2026 positive
Insight
Park: OpenAI and Anthropic Grew via Foreseeable Model Progress
“One of the most interesting thing about how OpenAI Anthropics and these companies grew was there were very strong fundamentals they could actually map out. They could actually see, oh, the models are getting better at this rate. Oh, and there's this kind of de…”
Joon Sung Park Jul 31, 2026 ▶ 49:57 The AI Company Simulating the Entire Economy | Simile Co-founder & CEO, Joon Sung Park
Aug 2, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei will successfully lobby for AI restrictions
“I just think Sam Altman is someone who I would never, ever bet against, and I think he's the best politician in the world, and I think when he says something, he says it with intent, and when he says we should give five percent away to the administration, he's…”
Harry Stebbings Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 19:23 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Claude Design is starting to eat away at Figma
“We see Claude Design has actually really started to eat away at Figma.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 55:15 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Angelopoulos: Open-source AI pressure could cause insolvency for leading frontier labs
“And I think that the reason to be worried is because if the open source ecosystem somehow makes the cost saving opportunity for businesses much more salient and therefore decreases the revenue of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic within the enterprise, that …”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 1:03:26 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Angelopoulos: Legal AI startups need not fear Anthropic due to differing priorities
“It's like priority number 12 for Anthropic is probably not high enough for Harvey and LaGuardia to be too scared.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 1:02:11 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Angelopoulos: Nvidia is probably leading the race to a $10T valuation
“I think it's hard to say not NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA is probably in the lead there.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 1:02:53 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Angelopoulos: Going public will exert downward pricing pressure on Anthropic's inference
“And after they go public, the whole world is going to see that, right? Like we're going to see their margins because those are going to be public information. And that's going to exert downward pricing pressure on their inference.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 27:48 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Angelopoulos: Anthropic currently enjoys "disgustingly high" inference gross margins
“For example, one of the things that's going to happen is that like right now, Anthropic has like disgustingly high growth, gross margins in their inference.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 27:41 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Angelopoulos: Most global AI inference spend remains on proprietary first-party APIs
“If you look at the whole space of all inference, most of it is still being consumed on first party APIs and on proprietary models. That's why anthropic revenue has been just a total hockey stick. It's not, you know, it's not like they're being completely canni…”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 5:44 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 2, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Angelopoulos: Two-thirds of 75 AI neo-labs will fail or be acqui-hired
“There's at least 75 Neolabs. And For sure, like two thirds of those are going to be worth nothing or like they're going to be bought out for parts, right? That's going to be like an aqua hire.”
Anastasios Angelopoulos Aug 2, 2026 ▶ 39:16 Arena CEO: There Will be a $100BN US Open-Source Model & Data is a Trillion Dollar Market
Aug 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic drive 70% of Google and AWS compute backlogs
“In other words, because they're 70% of the Google Compute backlog, the 70% of the Amazon backlog.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 46:44 Leo Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Blows Up | Moonshot AI Raises $3.5B at $35B
Aug 5, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Arora: Foundation models will not disrupt Palo Alto Networks' perimeter security
“So when people tell me, oh, OpenAI is going to eat my lunch, or Mythos is going to eat my lunch, guess what? There are no perimeter security scenario, which means I still need to block the bad guy. They need to be the ingredient in my product. They're not goin…”
Nikesh Arora Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 31:26 Leo Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness Blows Up | Moonshot AI Raises $3.5B at $35B
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Stebbings: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Reach $1 Trillion to $2 Trillion Valuations
“Both will be trillion dollar plus, potentially close to two trillion.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:03:43 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frankel: OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX Are Today's Metas and Googles
“And I think in, you know, OpenAI and Anthropic and SpaceX, we're seeing that already. Like these are the Metas and the Googles of our era, highly likely.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 20:24 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frankel: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Eventually Be Disrupted by Chinese Competitors
“That anthropic and open AI are going to be disrupted. It's like unequivocal. Like our whole careers are about disruption. Those platforms never, ever stay forever. Where is it going to come from? Excellent chance it comes from China. It's coming.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:15:18 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Mega venture platforms will achieve venture returns via massive outcomes
“I think with the outcome expansion that we've seen, cursor at sixty billion trillion dollar companies in a matter of years with OpenAI and Anthropic, you will see Venture returns with mega platform sizes.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 37:45 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 9, 2026
Disclosure
Atallah: OpenRouter Data Undercounts Frontier Models Due to Multi-Model Bias
“I think we have a, we definitely have a bias to People who believe our thesis, which is that the future is multi-model and companies who want multiple models. And there are still companies out there. I basically rarely, very rarely run into them now, but there…”
Alex Atallah Aug 9, 2026 ▶ 24:04 OpenRouter CEO: Why Chinese Open Models Are Beating the US | Why Enterprises Fear OpenAI & Anthropic
Aug 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Atallah: Closed-weight labs distill models, including Sonnet from Opus
“The closed-weight model labs distill models too, like, you know, Sonnet is, The partially distilled version of Opus and like you, this is how you like make smaller models out of bigger models.”
Alex Atallah Aug 9, 2026 ▶ 57:58 OpenRouter CEO: Why Chinese Open Models Are Beating the US | Why Enterprises Fear OpenAI & Anthropic
Aug 9, 2026 positive
Opinion
OpenRouter CEO: Anthropic's paranoia about future AI risks is important
“I think it's important to have somebody who is, Very paranoid about the future and how things are going to shake up. And I appreciate that. Like, I personally appreciate Anthropic's paranoia.”
Alex Atallah Aug 9, 2026 ▶ 1:02:50 OpenRouter CEO: Why Chinese Open Models Are Beating the US | Why Enterprises Fear OpenAI & Anthropic
Aug 9, 2026 neutral
Insight
Atallah: Anthropic launched Claude Design to hook enterprise design teams
“This is my theory behind why like Claude design was strategic. While it's not like a massive amount of revenue for Anthropic, like not probably not a significant amount of revenue. It does get the design team to really care about Anthropic models. And so the c…”
Alex Atallah Aug 9, 2026 ▶ 26:53 OpenRouter CEO: Why Chinese Open Models Are Beating the US | Why Enterprises Fear OpenAI & Anthropic
Aug 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Anthropic will IPO soon after pulling ahead of OpenAI's ChatGPT
“They will go public because this is peak brass ring moment, and you know, you could argue the trends in 27 are tougher. You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT, so just put a nail in the entropic pit, right? You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT comfortably, OpenAI, to a poin…”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 44:59 Canva Slashes Growth | Talent Exodus at Google | Revolut's $50B CEO Package | Musk's $55B Terrafab
Aug 12, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google Cloud generates 30% operating margins selling compute to Anthropic
“Every dollar of, every piece of compute that you give to Google Cloud turns into 30% operating margins in a day because they can sell it to Entropic.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 36:58 Canva Slashes Growth | Talent Exodus at Google | Revolut's $50B CEO Package | Musk's $55B Terrafab
Aug 12, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
A $1 million Anthropic stock grant from 2023 is worth $51 million
“Someone who got a million in stock in Anthropic in 23, it's worth fifty one million now, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 48:43 Canva Slashes Growth | Talent Exodus at Google | Revolut's $50B CEO Package | Musk's $55B Terrafab
Aug 20, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Anthropic achieved its first quarterly profit on $11.5B in Q2 revenue
“Anthropic turns its first profit on 11 and a half billion dollars of Q two revenue.”
Harry Stebbings Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 28:34 Stripe's $8B OpenRouter Bet | Anthropic's First Profit & The Math Behind Reaching $600B in Revenue?
Aug 20, 2026 neutral
Opinion
O'Driscoll: 70-80% of Anthropic valuation relies on AI coding
“Remember, this is the biggest market for AI. Like, 70, 80% of Entropic's trillion-dollar market cap is predicated on this, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 6:35 Stripe's $8B OpenRouter Bet | Anthropic's First Profit & The Math Behind Reaching $600B in Revenue?
Aug 20, 2026 bullish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Holds Far Better IPO Timing Position Than OpenAI
“I think it's a far more attractive strategic position to be going out as Entropic in the fall with a, we've been profitable, okay, we're unprofitable again, but we're the winner in the enterprise, then going out next year where maybe the growth rates have star…”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 20, 2026 ▶ 43:09 Stripe's $8B OpenRouter Bet | Anthropic's First Profit & The Math Behind Reaching $600B in Revenue?
Aug 22, 2026 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Murdock: OpenAI and Anthropic Do Not Permit Frontier Model Customization
“What's happening is, is that you can't customize anthropic models or open AI models right now. Not the big frontier models. You're not allowed to do that.”
Jerry Murdock Aug 22, 2026 ▶ 11:05 The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
Aug 22, 2026 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Murdock: Anthropic will go public before OpenAI
“It appears like Anthropic.”
Jerry Murdock Aug 22, 2026 ▶ 59:33 The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
Aug 22, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Murdock: Mega rounds for Anthropic and OpenAI might actually have been cheap
“And I would argue that it looks like anthropic and open AI, those crazy mega rounds, you know, at a hundred billion, a hundred and fifty billion might actually have been cheap.”
Jerry Murdock Aug 22, 2026 ▶ 32:43 The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
Aug 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Frontier models will not be cannibalized in the short term
“We're going to absolutely see this thing that, you know, Prohibits the cannibalization of frontier models, at least in the short term.”
Jerry Murdock Aug 22, 2026 ▶ 17:37 The AI Bubble WILL Burst | Should we be fearful of Chinese Open-Source | Jerry Murdock
Aug 24, 2026 bullish
Disclosure
Bek: Sequoia underestimated Anthropic early due to linear thinking
“Yeah, we call that revisiting our priors. It's very important that you update your priors if the environment's changed, and I think it came from the realization that if AI is going to be so transformative, we are just on the foothill of this incredible exponen…”
Julien Bek Aug 24, 2026 ▶ 8:45 Inside Sequoia's Investment Committee | How the SpaceX & Citadel Deals Went Down | Julien Bek
Aug 27, 2026 bearish
Opinion
O'Driscoll: Anthropic's $30 Trillion TAM Target Is 'Delusional'
“I just say on Tropic and the Wall Street Journal, they believe their TAM is 30 trillion. And I, and then I say to myself, oh, I remember everyone when they're doing really well gets slightly delusional. Your time is, you know, the entire US GDP.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 41:18 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
Aug 27, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic Gross Margins Rose From -91% to +30% in One Year
“Anthropic went from -91 to positive 30 in a year.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 24:00 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
Aug 27, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: OpenAI will IPO later and lower than Anthropic
“The rank, the most, the big picture fact is the ranking has changed, and you're now number two. So you will go out later then and a lower price than the other guys, unless you change the trajectory massively.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 29:46 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
Aug 27, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Lemkin: Selling subsidized consumer AI tokens is history's worst business model
“It's a crappy business that consumers selling 10,000 dollars worth of tokens for 200 dollars is one of the worst business models of our lifetimes, right? If that was the only business, these guys would be dead in the water. It's a pretty bad business.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 40:03 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
Aug 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
O'Driscoll: California took 75% of venture funding, driven by OpenAI and Anthropic
“California didn't just outperform everywhere else. It got three quarters of the total dollars. Now, that's invention. That's skewed by the fact that Entropic and OpenAI together got probably 60% of the total dollars.”
Rory O'Driscoll Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 53:21 Anthropic's $30T Assumption & OpenAI Confirms IPO | Why Customer Service & Robotics are Overinflated
Aug 29, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Reyes: OpenAI and Anthropic face existential risk from data center debt
“If you're open AI or you're anthropic, the hundreds of billions in free cash flow that you need in order to pay back the debt that you're taking on in order to accommodate these data center build outs in order to get the next big training run, it's totally exi…”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 52:54 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 29, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Reyes: OpenAI and Anthropic are currently in the Netscape and Yahoo era
“We are probably in like the Yahoo era where we don't actually have, or at least widely recognize The Googles of the world, or like the sort of the thing that comes after. And so today, when I look at OpenAI and Anthropic, there are, I think, more analogies to …”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 55:48 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Reyes: Claude Code is raised in every single enterprise buyer conversation
“In terms of, I'd say relevance to the conversations when I'm talking to enterprise buyers, number one is Claude code. I think that it's just brought up in every single conversation.”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 1:22:30 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Reyes: AI Labs Must Vertically Integrate Silicon to Reach Multi-Trillion Scale
“I think verticalization is clearly the strongest way to unscrew yourself from taking on a massive amount of debt and burden. In the future, if they become multi-trillion dollar companies, they will simply have to Enter in this market and own more of that infra…”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 53:38 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 29, 2026 positive
Opinion
Reyes: Dario Amodei's warnings about unregulated AI pose very real threats
“The things that Dario brings up are not only well-intentioned, but there are very real threats from unregulated and dangerous AI.”
Eno Reyes Aug 29, 2026 ▶ 18:07 Should American Enterprises Work With Open-Source Chinese Models? | Only 10% of Neo-labs survive
Aug 31, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
Katz: AI customers represent less than 12% of ClickHouse's revenue
“The basket of AI companies that's using us in nearly every AI companies built on ClickHouse from Harvey, Sierra, Decagon, Anthropic, OpenAI, et cetera, represents less than 12% of revenue.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 48:09 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Aug 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Katz: Anthropic, OpenAI, and Weights & Biases all use ClickHouse
“It's the world's most popular open source database, and it satisfies a very broad Array of use cases, and it's used by nearly every AI native company, Anthropic, OpenAI, Weights and Biases.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 1:30 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Aug 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Katz: Anthropic chose ClickHouse after asking Claude for a recommendation
“If you ask Anthropic how they chose to use ClickHouse, they'll tell you they asked Claude, what technology should we use for this specific observability use case? And Claude suggested ClickHouse.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 16:34 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Aug 31, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Katz: ClickHouse's Anthropic spend is up 100x this year
“Our anthropic spend is up a hundred times from what it was at the beginning of the year.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 4:59 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Aug 31, 2026 positive
Opinion
Katz: Anthropic and OpenAI Outpace Open Weights on Application Harnesses
“Anthropic specifically and open AI have the benefit of being both a model provider and the harness provider that the open weights models right now are behind in.”
Aaron Katz Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 5:37 ClickHouse CEO: AI Margins Need to Improve | Revenue Concentration Should be a Concern
Sep 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Open-Source AI Models Trail OpenAI and Anthropic by Six Months
“Today we can feel a little bit safe because OpenAI and Anthropic have this and no one else does, but there's open source models. They're six months behind.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 20:40 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Sep 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Salesforce Agreed to Shift Its LLM Spending to Anthropic
“Dario is showing up because Mark agreed to move Salesforce agreed to move Their LLM spend to Anthropic.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 56:14 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Sep 3, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Anthropic reaffirmed continued model supply to Cursor
“I also think Anthropic reaffirmed that they're happily continuing to supply”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 12:01 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Sep 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Salesforce Spends $6B on Engineering and $300M on Anthropic Annually
“Salesforce spends six billion a year on engineering, and that probably includes QA and all the rest of it, but that's the right comp. And they're going to spend three hundred million dollars this year on Anthropic.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 1:03:29 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Sep 3, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Cognition will never catch Anthropic but needs $5B-$10B ARR
“It's never going to catch anthropic unless, unless the world changes, which it has every, every single week. But unless the world changes, it's not, and it doesn't need to catch them. Just five to ten billion a year a few years out is enough to make cognition …”
Jason Lemkin Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 38:30 NVIDIA Crushes Quarter | OpenAI Cuts Off Cursor | Instinct Hits $2.5B Valuation
Sep 7, 2026 bearish
Insight
Greze: AI wrappers face broken economics paying suppliers 70% margins to compete
“And the problem with the frontier is, I have zero pricing power at the frontier. And I mean, I think this is what happened to Cursor, right, at the end. It's like, you can have huge market share and customers love you and everything, but if you're paying your …”
Jean-Denis Greze Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 52:14 Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble
Sep 7, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stebbings: Jason Lemkin burns $15k in tokens on a $299 Anthropic plan
“My friend Jason Lampkin, he obviously pays for, like, Anthropic Pro, whatever it is, two 99, and he spends about 15,000 dollars of tokens. He is the worst customer for Anthropic, but he's on that, like, pro max individual plan.”
Harry Stebbings Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 46:38 Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble
Sep 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Greze: Anthropic spends significant effort keeping model personalities consistent
“One of the problems when you do model routing is there's some companies like Anthropix spends a lot of time. I know we make fun of them online, but they spend a lot of time actually making sure all of their model families roughly don't change too much in terms…”
Jean-Denis Greze Sep 7, 2026 ▶ 20:58 Town vs Instinct vs GrokBot | Why the AI Assistant Market Is Not a Bubble
Sep 10, 2026 negative
Insight
O'Driscoll: Leaking acquisition talks leaves companies shop-spoiled if deals collapse
“That way, once it leaks, even if you leak it to, as the company being acquired to drum up competitive bid, the problem is you've set yourself up for this thing whereby if subsequently the deal doesn't come together, you look a bit, you know, shop spoiled, for …”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 53:27 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
Sep 10, 2026 negative
Opinion
O'Driscoll: No one could serve on both OpenAI and Anthropic boards
“I don't think anyone could be on the board of Antropic and also on the board of OpenAI.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 49:14 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
Sep 10, 2026 positive
Insight
O'Driscoll: Holding competing late-stage AI stakes creates no real conflict
“It totally makes sense to be In OpenAI and Antropic at two hundred billion pre each time, you get limited information rights, retroactive information only, and you know, you're just on the cap table, and it's no different than being in two public companies.”
Rory O'Driscoll Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 48:53 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
Sep 10, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Video diffusion is not a top-three use case for Anthropic
“It's not a core. It's not one of their top three use cases for the LM is video diffusion.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 56:11 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
Sep 12, 2026 negative
Opinion
Franceschetti: Candidates cross-evaluating Anthropic and Eight Sleep are a red flag
“When people, sometimes it's still happening today that sometimes people say, oh, I'm at the final stage with Anthropic and innate sleep, and to me, that is a really bad red flag, Not even for the salary, but it means you're confused. There is no way that these…”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 57:23 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
Sep 12, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep spends millions per month on Claude
“No, it's lower than that, but it's still in the millions.”
Matteo Franceschetti Sep 12, 2026 ▶ 19:13 Labour, Engineering, Social Media, GrokBots, Cybercabs: 7 Predictions for How AI Changes the World
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