Opinion
Sivulka: Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) does not work at all
“That's a bit of a plot twist over here. We, I actually don't think RAG works at all.”
Insight
Sivulka: Great founders have messed up childhoods, are gay, or adopted
“You can bucket great founders into three backgrounds. The most common is that you have kind of a messed up childhood. The second most common would be, ah, you're gay, and the third most common would be you were adopted. Look at like a list of all-time greats. …”
Opinion
Sivulka: ChatGPT is a poor product that acts like a calculator
“I don't even think ChatGPT is a really good product. It's like a calculator. It's got the technology in there encapsulated in a very simple form. But it's not a product that, like in Excel, that lets you just build whatever you'd like with it.”
Opinion
Sivulka: 90% of enterprise AI is vapor and usage stats are fake
“I think, like, 90% of enterprise AI right now is almost like this vapor where, hey, we swear it works, like, look at this amazing demo where we ask, What does the CEO say about the investment? And the minute that they actually go to, you know, try to use it in…”
Opinion
Sivulka: Satya Nadella is wrong about business apps collapsing into agents
“I actually don't agree with that at all. I think he's completely wrong. I think it depends on how you define a business app. But I actually think that if the new business apps are platforms, you'll, you'll actually start to see those platforms really take hold…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Agentic AI will generate over 50% of global GDP within decades
“I ultimately, genuinely believe that more than 50% of the GDP will be contributed by what you can call agentic applications in the next few decades, yeah. I actually think it'll happen faster than the next few decades.”
Opinion
Sivulka: Klarna's claims of AI-driven layoffs are investor BS
“You know, there's all these stories, and, you know, you have, like, Klarna that's positioning for investors that they're firing half their staff, and no one really wants, and I think. I think it's BS, yeah.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2030
Sivulka: Fine-tuned models will never catch up to inference scaling
“And so you saw the idea of, ah, of post training or kind of like this refined, verticalized model creation, ah, just always would lose to scaling laws. And maybe we're at the end of scaling laws at training, but I actually think, you know, Hebbia and now OpenA…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: xAI could overtake OpenAI and Anthropic in valuation within two years
“I think XAI is the most undervalued company, and a really spicy take. I actually think XAI might overtake OpenAI and Anthropic in value over the next, you know, 12 to 24 months.”
Opinion
Sivulka: All AI companies and S&P 500 stocks are massively undervalued
“I genuinely believe all AI companies and the S&P 500 are all undervalued, which is a very hot take. But again, if we're about to create a hundred trillion dollars of value, I think this is a real tangible Technological shift. It's a massive unlock on the order…”
Opinion
Sivulka: Salesforce will survive AI disruption due to human switching costs
“I think that ultimately I don't think they are. I think that I think that Salesforce Like, has built, again, like, a very, very, very sticky network effect with people, and people are the shifting function at the end of the day. It's not a technology problem. …”
Insight
Sivulka: Founders can brute-force any business to $100M ARR
“Like, you can bring a lemonade stand to a hundred million dollars in ARR. Like, there's nothing that's actually stopped. You can brute force your way as a founder. You screw product market. You can literally brute force anything in the world.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: 90% of enterprise AI queries require computation beyond RAG search
“And so all of these questions, it was actually almost 90% of the questions that people were asking these systems weren't answerable by search through the documents. But rather they had to be work done on top of the documents and then answered.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: AI compute will create $100T in market value within 60 years
“If there was a hundred trillion dollars of value that was created in the stock market from the introduction of the computer, or the fundamental unit of compute, I actually think a hundred trillion dollars of value will be created in the next 60 years from the …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: AI will increase financial firms' AUM and drive employment
“I think that it will change the way that people do work, but I genuinely believe that, ah, it'll actually increase the AUM of the firms that use it. I think it will actually drive more employment.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sivulka: GPT-4 beat BloombergGPT at every financial task
“So then GPT-IV was released, I think, like a few weeks later. I don't know exactly any of the right timeline, but it just destroyed Bloomberg GPT at every single finance task.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: AI model layer will commoditize as value accrues to applications and hardware
“I, you know, I think that ultimately the model layer, and I think this is not a hot take anymore. I've been saying it for a few years, but I think it will become commoditized. I think that a lot of value will accrue at the hardware layer especially And we coul…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: Switching cloud providers costs startups $10M-$20M, unlike AI models
“I can switch models readily. Like, I think there's even entire businesses now There will be an entire industry of being able to switch models from OpenAI to Anthropic when OpenAI goes down, but just to switch clouds is like, you know, for any, like, substantia…”
Insight
Sivulka: Capable AI agents turn user interface into a management problem
“The better agents are, the more work that they do, the more important it will be that they are easily understood by humans. The idea would be, okay, let's say we have a bunch of employees, 10,000 employees, or 10,000 AI agents drop at a company. They're all ex…”
Prediction Held up
Sivulka: AI shift from training to inference will destabilize Nvidia's dominance
“The shift away from training to inference as a fundamental, like, almost macro shift in how people deploy AI. I actually think that will destabilize slightly the dominance of NVIDIA chips.”
Insight
Sivulka: CTOs know the least about business workflows for AI
“The CTO or the IT folks are actually the people that know the least about the business. The people that, that actually understand how to use AI in a business context are those that are closest to the business.”
Insight
Sivulka: Consumption pricing disincentivizes AI adoption by charging per interaction
“And I think that, ah, when you charge for consumption or API pricing, you're disincentivizing the change. You're saying, ok, well I'm gonna penalize you in a monetary way for every time you use an AI application.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivulka would not sell Hebbia for $2 billion
“Would I sell for, no, no, I would not.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sivulka: US government possesses non-traditional UFO propulsion technology
“I believe that UFOs are real. I think a little bit more on the nose right now, but I actually believe there's fundamentally different propulsion technology and that I think the US government has access to it.”
