Opinion
Bitcoin Runs on Greed While Solana and Ethereum Show Long-Term Potential
“And that greed element of blockchain, which is exactly what the Bitcoin thing is all about, in my opinion, is about greed, bringing down the, in the whole blockchain thing. While Solana and Ethereum, they're looking like they have a long-term potential.”
Opinion
Murdock: Fireworks Is 10x Better Business Than Baseten Due to Capital Efficiency
“I bet on fireworks over base 10, 10 times better business, in my opinion, because they're more capital efficient.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Baseten's Deal With Cursor Yielded Scale but Little Profit
“I think cursor was pretty smart in the base 10 contracts from last year with cursor. I don't think there was much profit in it for a base 10. They just got revenue and they got scale from it, but they didn't get a lot of earnings.”
Opinion
Jerry Murdock: OpenRouter's 5% markup is unsustainable and will not last
“My opinion is open router has massive amounts of transactions because people are basically lazy, right? It was easy. Okay. I need to connect to this model. I'm just going to use open router and open router charges five percent on top of that, which is a crazy …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Continuous learning will replace frontier models rather than bolting onto them
“They're going to replace frontier models. I don't think you can bolt on continuous learning into an existing frontier model. I think they're going to try and the early stages will look like that. But I think ultimately it'll call for a new form of architecture…”
Opinion
Jerry Murdock: Most companies view AI coding assistant Cursor as obsolete
“Most of the companies, their view, as they've told me, is cursor is obsolete.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous agents will drive shift from Nvidia GPUs to ASICs
“And my guess is this will lead to the rise of open source models more, more proficiently. And that it's going to lead to the rise of ASICS chips, because what's going to happen with ASICS is you're going to put the model on the chip. You know, ASICS is going t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jerry Murdock: Legacy SaaS vendors face severe disruption within 18 months
“But if you're not making your software for autonomous agents today, you're going to be challenged in the future. Maybe it's six months, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, but you're going to be severely challenged if you still think human beings are going to buy y…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jerry Murdock: AI job displacement could decide the next US presidential election
“I'm here to say that that is going to be a major issue On the next presidential election, it could decide the election. It'll be one of the most important things because there's no easy answer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jerry Murdock: UBI will become a ballot question within two years
“When this happens, we're going to see dramatic change, and I think politically, the minimal viable income may become a reality or at least a ballot question in two and a half years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Jerry Murdock: AI disruption will cause tech private equity firms to fail
“And so they'll be stories like that. I don't know about Bravo or anybody else, but they'll definitely be PE firms that end up like Forsman Little.”
What-if
Jerry Murdock: Twitter would have been far better without VC politics
“Twitter could have been infinitely a more interesting company, but VCs got involved and created politics, and they fired Jack Dorsey early, and I don't know if that was right or wrong, but they created issues, and the company was pretty messed up.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Hyperscalers Will Benefit from Market Dislocation by Buying Cheaper Assets
“If there is a dislocation, no one is better prepared to survive it than hyperscalers. I mean, all the hyperscalers have enough ongoing business and they've been very consistent. That's why they're worth what they're worth. The magnificent seven is there becaus…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: At Least Half of Neoclouds Will Fail Within 36 Months
“I think at least half of them go away within 36 months without, and if there's an economic disruption, a lot of them go away right away.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Token Cost Disparity Will Drive Massive Open-Source Model Adoption
“And if you're looking at a Frontier model with double dollar digit cost per token, and you're looking at an open source model that's 10, 11 cents per token, while all tokens aren't created equal, it's still enough of a difference that there's going to be a mas…”
Insight
Murdock: AI tokens are not commodities because model customization changes their value
“I disagree with a token as a token. That may be true at the moment with pretty much frontier models, but I disagree with it because companies like fireworks and others are helping companies to customize. The more you customize the model, the more the token cha…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Frontier models will not be cannibalized in the short term
“We're going to absolutely see this thing that, you know, Prohibits the cannibalization of frontier models, at least in the short term.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock: Enterprise firewall data security needs will drive open-source AI adoption
“And I think in part, this is what's going to drive the open source opportunity is that, yeah, you know what? We don't want that stuff. Uploaded into the cloud. We want it, you know, behind the firewall.”
Insight
Murdock: Containers are not safe for AI tools and require sandboxes
“Containers aren't safe. You need sandboxes. This is why. The big container company, Docker said, Hey, themselves said containers aren't safe. You better put in a sandbox.”
Opinion
Murdock: E2B and Docker lead in understanding AI sandbox infrastructure
“And if you look at E to B and you look at Docker, they're probably the two best at understanding all that stuff. So you start there because if you don't get the sandbox right, forget everything else.”
Insight
Murdock: ASIC Chips Are Ideal for Customization While GPUs Are Too Expensive
“I, look, Asics chips are really ideal if you're thinking about model customization. If you're saying, look, we're at a new phase in, in, in this AI build out, or what we really want to do is, is, is do a lot of model specialization. You don't need a GPU for th…”
Opinion
Murdock: Building Custom Chips Is the Wrong Long-Term Path for AI Companies
“Look, actually owning the chip is going the wrong way long term. Short term, it makes sense for larger companies, because they want to optimize chipsets for models.”
Opinion
Murdock: Mega rounds for Anthropic and OpenAI might actually have been cheap
“And I would argue that it looks like anthropic and open AI, those crazy mega rounds, you know, at a hundred billion, a hundred and fifty billion might actually have been cheap.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Murdock predicts disruption of model routing fee markups within 3–5 months
“And so I think that you're gonna see a big disruption in that model in the next three, four, five months. Actually, not just Akinaki, but Venice, Venice IO is doing that. And there's two or three other guys that are now in the process of building exchanges tha…”
