StarZero All shows Try the podcast clipper →

Nikhil Basu Trivedi

Co-Founder & General Partner, Footwork · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderoperatorauthor@nbt ↗LinkedIn ↗footwork.vc ↗

Nikhil Basu Trivedi is an early-stage venture capitalist who co-founded Footwork alongside Mike Smith, having previously served as Managing Director at Shasta Ventures. He is known for early-stage investments in companies such as Canva, Frame.io, Lattice, ClassDojo, and The Farmer's Dog.

55statements → 19claims → 9claims resolved → 78%fully supported → 3.87/5average certainty → 2.22/5average debate potential → 4.4/5argument clarity · the sources → 20said about them ↓

7 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 9 not checkable as stated how the 19 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

10 predictions · 9 assertions · 8 opinions · 17 insights · 11 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 19 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 9 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 9 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Nikhil argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Basu Trivedi: 5x net returns on $1B+ funds are historically rare
“It is incredibly difficult to have a five X net return on A billion dollar plus fund. I think there's incredibly few of those funds in history, in the history of venture.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 7:43 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Basu Trivedi: US AV adoption will be hybrid, Europe and Asia fleet-dominant
“So in Europe and Asia, where public transport is more prevalent and more used, I do think that a fleet-based approach, where you take out your phone, press a button, and an autonomous car comes and picks you up, But you don't necessarily own that car. It's sha…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 13:45 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
75% certainty 3
88% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.4 / 5 directness 4.5 · coherence 4.7 · precision 4.3 · compression 3.9

redirected or did not address 4 of 43 assessed questions (9%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

258 words/min while actually speaking · 14.5 um and uh per 1k words · 17.9 false starts per 1k · 38.5% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 12,991 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 2 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 3.5/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 2/10
setup questions received 43%

Everything Nikhil Basu Trivedi said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Basu Trivedi: Massive AI foundation model seed rounds make no sense
“We don't think that the foundational model investments that, for example, they're raising hundreds of millions of dollars in a seed make any sense. They don't make sense for sure for our firm, but we don't think they actually make much sense for the big funds …”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 14:38 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Basu Trivedi: Small VC funds outperform larger funds
“And my firm belief in my bones is that small funds outperform bigger funds.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 7:37 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Basu Trivedi: 5x net returns on $1B+ funds are historically rare
“It is incredibly difficult to have a five X net return on A billion dollar plus fund. I think there's incredibly few of those funds in history, in the history of venture.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 7:43 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Basu Trivedi: LLMs will directly serve use cases, bypassing application layers
“In the large language model world, that the LLMs themselves will serve as a use case versus an application layer on top of those LLMs.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 58:39 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Basu Trivedi: Several AI startups are seeing ARR declines due to churn
“I've heard there are several companies now that have grown rapidly in ARR and have now started declining in ARR as retention actually starts to affect these businesses because there's churn from folks who just try out products built on top of these LLMs becaus…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 58:55 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Basu Trivedi: Elon Musk predicted fully self-driving Teslas by late 2017
“Elon Musk said in In December, 2015 that Tesla is two years away from a self-driving car. So, you know, now we're in 2016 and he said that the Tesla will get there in late 2017.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 7:06 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Insight
Basu Trivedi: Exceptional startups deserve exceptions to standard VC portfolio rules
“Exceptional companies deserve exceptions. And it's a mantra that I've tried to always have in my venture career, which is yes, you have this model of how you want to invest this dream idea of portfolio construction and the profile of company that you're lookin…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 1:43 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Basu Trivedi: Founders Should Judge VC Associates by Quality, Not Title
“I think that you're better off as a founder judging based on the actual conversation you have, which sometimes may be a lot better with the youngest person on the team versus the managing partner of the firm, and sometimes it won't be.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 3:04 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Basu Trivedi: Most large VC firms generate excess management fee revenue
“Most venture firms have plenty of fees to cover the team and more, especially at that fund size scale.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 9:55 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Basu Trivedi: Larger VC fund sizes cause laziness in investment decisions
“You know, in a strange way, I really like the constraint of our fund size. I actually think it forces us to make better decisions. And I think there's a laziness and a lack of great decision making that can come from having a bigger fund in the same way that i…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 12:18 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Basu Trivedi: Early traction matters more than team and market size
“I've always been a sort of traction, early signs of product market fit first investor. Then people, and then market.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 18:57 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Basu Trivedi: Market size is the hardest startup variable to predict
“I weight market third on the three that you asked me about because I just think it's the hardest one to assess and predict for myself, and I think when you look at the investments you just described and some of the very great ones, that was true for those inve…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 22:21 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Basu Trivedi: Making VC decisions via internal politics is a terrible practice
“Look, I think there are partnerships where decisions are made based on the ability of individuals to sell internally, and so there's some folks that are just naturally more gifted to sell the deal to their partners, and there's political points back and forth …”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 35:24 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Basu Trivedi: Only 10 to 15 LPs globally anchor first-time venture funds
“Yeah, look, I think that there's, especially in a first fund, there's a handful of LPs around the world, at least that I know of and have met, who are truly independent thinking, who will truly raise their hand and say, we're willing to do a first time fund, a…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 40:15 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Basu Trivedi: Most LPs fail to rigorously assess GP drive and commitment
“I don't think that they spend enough cycles on it. But I actually think some of the great ones do.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 45:15 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Basu Trivedi: VC platform teams scale the firm, not the portfolio companies
“Most of those platform offerings are about scaling the firm themselves versus about Actually scaling companies and really helping companies get to the next level.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 48:40 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Basu Trivedi: The Farmer's Dog is my biggest investment hit, not Canva
“I actually think my biggest hit right now at least as I can best predict it is not Canva. Dollar gains, Perspective, and on an IRR basis as well, it's a company called The Farmer's Dog, which is in the pet food space, and it's a subscription service for fresh …”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 49:11 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Basu Trivedi passed on early Figma rounds for lacking product-market fit
“This comes back to my bias around wanting to see some early signs of product market fit before investing, and Figma did not have a launched product. Before its first couple of venture rounds.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 51:53 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Basu Trivedi: Venture capitalists cannot work as hard after becoming parents
“No, and I believe the answer is no. I mean, it has not been the case for me.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 56:22 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Basu Trivedi: AUM is the stupidest metric for venture firms
“I think AUM is the stupidest thing to talk about as a venture firm, because back to what we were talking about earlier, small funds outperform larger funds, and so you really shouldn't be talking about how much capital you've raised. I'm okay with people talki…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 59:52 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Basu Trivedi: Exercising pro-rata in rapid markup rounds was my biggest mistake
“I think it was doing our pro-rata In companies that quickly raised another round at a huge step up from where we first invested. Fundamentally, there was very little de-risked, and we saw this happen where a company had raised a series A from us, and two month…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 1:00:44 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Basu Trivedi: USV belongs in the VC pantheon alongside Sequoia and Benchmark
“I think USV doesn't get the credit that it deserves. I think it should be in that pantheon of greatness that sort of Sequoia and Benchmark are typically put in.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Sep 6, 2023 ▶ 1:03:14 Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Basu Trivedi: Venture experience eventually trumps operating background for investors
“But now that I've been in venture capital for five to six years, the venture experience trumps the operating experience at some point. It absolutely does now for me. And so I think the venture experience now informs much more what I do every day with finding n…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 3:57 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Basu Trivedi: Autonomous transportation will drive trillions in consumer spend shifts
“I focus more on the consumer side at Shasta, and we do a mixture of consumer enterprise and connected hardware investing, and I think across, across those areas, there's a few categories that will lead to trillions of dollars of shift in spend for consumers ov…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 6:12 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures

Show 24statements(31 left)

The other half of the tape: Nikhil Basu Trivedi's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 20 times in 9 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 19Beezer Clarkson 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
00418220162017201820192020202120222023episodesmentions
01220162017201820192020202120222023episodes it came up in
00214220162017201820192020202120222023episodesmentions per episode
2023 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2020 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2019 8 mentions in 2 episodes 4 per episode
2017 2 mentions in 1 episode
2016 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Nikhil Basu Trivedi: Why 99% of AI Investments Will Go Bust | E1057 · 20VC with Harry Steb Sep 6, 2023 46m
20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Tr Jun 1, 2016 17m
Made with StarZero

Turn any episode into a week of clips.

This entire site, over 1,200 episodes transcribed, diarized, checked and made playable, runs on the StarZero media pipeline. Drop in your own episode and the podcast clipper finds the moments worth sharing, cuts them, captions them, and reframes them for every feed.

Try the podcast clipper Learn more