Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril builds cruise missile airframes like bathtubs using contract manufacturers
“The cruise missile we build, the actual airframe is built like you build a bathtub. And so we can take advantage of tons of contract manufacturers in the United States that can actually build a bathtub, right?”
Insight
Steckman: Defense founders must defer ethical rules to democratically elected governments
“If you work in defense, and if you start a defense company, your moral compass tends to be pretty clear on this question, which is, we have a democratically elected set of governments that represent the US, the Alliance, NATO, all of the countries participatin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Legacy defense primes get paid to fix mistakes, unlike Anduril
“A lot of our competitors, the really big ones, if they make a mistake, They get paid to fix it. I think if we make a mistake, we lose money, and we lose contracts, so.”
Insight
Steckman: Defense tech companies require a large US presence to survive
“You basically can't have a defense company if you don't have a large US business.”
Insight
Steckman: Few military drone programs generate enough revenue for standalone businesses
“There are very few drone programs that would create a material enough amount of revenue to actually create a real business.”
What-if
Steckman: Anduril missed offensive cyber warfare seven years ago but will enter
“We should have moved into that seven years ago and been the first in it. We weren't big enough probably to really even understand it seven years ago, but like in hindsight, it was kind of obvious. You know, we'll, we'll probably try and play some catch up here…”
Insight
Steckman: Defense startups must win one of two major government programs to survive
“So in every technology class in defense, there's probably one, sometimes two actual programs that if you capture them, you have a business. And if you don't, you have no business.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Steckman: Only one drone startup will ultimately win the market
“There'll be one that wins, right? It's going to be really hard to pick it, I think is the problem. Like, but there will definitely be one winner.”
Insight
Steckman: Defense hardware must use commercial supply chains over legacy defense manufacturing
“We have to be able to build something that takes advantage of commercial supply and commercial manufacturing techniques as opposed to aerospace and defense supply and technique.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Defense startups myopically focused on the Ukraine war will fail
“If those companies are myopically focused on that conflict, they will not have a business coming out the other end.”
Disclosure
Anduril Supplies Key Air Defense Systems Countering Shahed Drones
“We're one of the principal systems to defend against that threat in the Middle East.”
Opinion
Steckman: High Multiples Keep VC Defense Tech Startups Unaffordable for Anduril
“There are lots of VC companies I would love to buy if I had an unlimited checkbook, but right now the multiples today are, they put it out of reach for us.”
Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril is valued at 10 to 14 times forward revenue
“I think we're like, what? 10 or 14 X forward. Something like that.”
Insight
Steckman: Public status brings unique trust in national security sector
“When you are a public company, there is an additional level of trust That is afforded to you that you don't have when you're a private company.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Steckman: Anduril is a couple of years away from an IPO
“Still a couple of years out, but we're close. We're in the window.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Autonomous systems will eventually replace every single military mission
“I believe that that is true in the long run. I also believe that we're not even close to where a lot of people think we are on it. Like I think we're still in the early days on, on tons of this tech. But as time goes to infinity, like absolutely every single m…”
Insight
Steckman: Defense startups fail if they lack any of 12 core disciplines
“The challenge becomes in defense that if you're missing any of the 12 different types of disciplines it takes to really capture a large program, you will fail.”
Insight
Steckman: Tech hubris leads defense startups to reinvent existing solutions
“There's too much hubris, I think, in the technology market that you know, as high tech people, we can do everything better than everybody else. I think that causes some companies to think they have an idea that isn't actually an idea because it already exists,…”
Insight
Steckman: A single large contract does not equal an enduring defense company
“I think there's in many cases an overestimation of addressable market, where like actually what ultimately they're going after is a very small sliver of a problem which Might materialize in a single large contract, but a single large contract is not an endurin…”
Assertion Supported
Steckman: Anduril's $20B government contract contains no upfront obligated funds
“Think about this as like a credit card limit. So the government has said up to twenty billion dollars they can spend on a class of Andurl's commercial technology. There's no obligated money”
Disclosure
Anduril's First Major Contract Was Defense-as-a-Service for US Special Forces
“And actually one of our first major contracts was with US special forces for all of their counter UAS systems. That started as an as a service contract where they weren't buying hardware. They weren't buying software. They were literally buying a service that …”
Disclosure
Steckman: Anduril maintains 40% plus gross margin across its portfolio
“As a business, we run a sort of 40% plus gross margin across the board.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steckman: Anduril intends to target defense space market gap below SpaceX
“It's a huge open hole, I think, in the market that is something we definitely would run at.”
Disclosure
Steckman: Only a quarter of Anduril's 20 products are cash-flow positive
“So I mentioned we have 20 products and only about a quarter of those are in any kind of rate production and throwing money back to the business. Everything else is in low rate or development, meaning they're losing money.”
