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Emad Mostaque

Founder & CEO, Intelligent Internet · 2 appearances on the record, plus 3 compilation re-airs.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderexecutiveauthor@emostaque ↗LinkedIn ↗ii.inc ↗Wikipedia ↗

Mostaque is best known as the co-founder and former CEO of Stability AI, which funded and popularized the open-source text-to-image model Stable Diffusion. After stepping down from Stability AI in March 2024 to pursue decentralized AI, he founded Intelligent Internet and authored the book The Last Economy.

70statements → 48claims → 19claims resolved → 47%fully supported → 4.03/5average certainty → 2.88/5average debate potential → 4.1/5argument clarity · the sources → 23said about them ↓

9 supported 3 partly supported 7 contradicted 7 not yet assessed 17 not checkable as stated how the 48 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

30 predictions · 18 assertions · 8 opinions · 7 insights · 7 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 48 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 24 are resolved, 7 are not yet assessed, and 17 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Emad argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Mostaque: AI startups getting $100M funding rounds with zero traction
“Already you're seeing GitHub stars leading to a hundred million dollar funding rounds with zero traction and zero business model.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 16:02 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 0:55 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
63% certainty 4
13% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.1 / 5 directness 4.5 · coherence 4 · precision 3.9 · compression 3.7

redirected or did not address 2 of 39 assessed questions (5%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

290 words/min while actually speaking · 6.4 um and uh per 1k words · 1.9 false starts per 1k · 22.3% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 12,416 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 4 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 3.3/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 3.3/10
setup questions received 56%

Everything Emad Mostaque said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Mostak: Only 5 or 6 Foundation Model Companies Will Exist in 3-5 Years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Emad Mostaque Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 3:56 20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really Matter For Startups Today?
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Mostaque: AI Will Eliminate All Outsourced Programming Jobs in India
“India, all of the outsourcing jobs in programming will go, because GPT-IV can go level three Google programmer exam and pass it.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 23:45 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Mostaque: AI Will Build Software Automatically, Eliminating Human Coders
“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 44:05 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 45:46 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Emad Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque May 24, 2024 ▶ 10:19 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 0:55 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Emad Mostaque Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 2:56 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Emad Mostaque: Why I Signed the Open Letter for an AI Pause
“The reason I signed that letter, because I think there's a six month pause to get all of our shit together before things go completely insane, and next year this is everywhere, and everyone's investing in everything, and it's just absolute chaos.”
Emad Mostaque Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 15:08 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Emad Mostaque: No Current AI Models Will Be Used in a Year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Emad Mostaque Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 16:21 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Opinion
Mostaque: AI developers must stop pre-training models on uncurated internet data
“We've got to stop pre-training big models on all the crazy crap of the internet. And like, we've got to do it fast because this is coming like a train.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 1:03:13 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Google will be a primary winner in the AI race
“Google will be one of the main winners here. They have the LLMs, they have the hardware.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 10:37 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Mostaque: Value in AI is not in proprietary models or data
“The value is not in any proprietary models or data.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 13:37 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Next year AI investment will be everywhere, causing chaos
“The reason I signed that letter, because I think there's a six month pause to get all of our shit together before things go completely insane, and next year this is everywhere, and everyone's investing in everything, and it's just absolute chaos.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 16:59 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Mostaque: OpenAI prioritizes building utopian AGI over a commercial business
“No, they're building an AGI to turn the world into utopia. It's written in their path to AGI thing, that they think this can basically bring about utopia.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 21:20 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: AI will have a larger economic impact than COVID-19
“And so, like, I think this will be a bigger economic impact than COVID.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 40:05 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Mostaque: 50% of All Code on GitHub Is AI-Generated
“50% of all code on GitHub is AI generated now.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 43:09 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: European policy will regulate all technology innovation out of Europe
“Because they're going to regulate all innovation out of Europe, and not embrace this technology to drive them forward.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 1:08:53 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Emad Mostaque: Unbiased AI Models Do Not Exist
“There is no such thing as an unbiased model.”
Emad Mostaque Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 15:48 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Emad Mostaque: Only Five Foundation Model Companies Will Survive by 2028
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Emad Mostaque Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 27:37 20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mostak: Generative AI will have a bigger economic impact than COVID
“I think this will be a bigger economic impact than COVID.”
Emad Mostaque Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 7:37 20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really Matter For Startups Today?
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostak: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Emad Mostaque Jun 2, 2023 ▶ 12:49 20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really Matter For Startups Today?
Opinion
Mostaque: AI transformation is bigger than the printing press
“I think this is bigger than the printing press. It's bigger than anything.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 1:03:05 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Mostaque: Stability AI is building models without web-scraped data
“I call them organic free-range models, the ones we're building with no web scrape data.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 9:51 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Stability AI sees zero failure rate training on Google TPUs
“TPUs are the most scalable architecture, like we have zero failure rate with our TPU language model training, whereas with GPUs it's like there's an ECC error”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 10:53 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 24statements(46 left)

The other half of the tape: Emad Mostaque's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 23 times in 6 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 22

Every mention by year

Appearances (5)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by Ope compilation May 24, 2024 32s
The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20 compilation Nov 24, 2023 1m
20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does Th Sep 15, 2023 1m
20VC: Who Wins the AI Race; Startups or Incumbents & Does Having Proprietary Data Really M compilation Jun 2, 2023 5m
Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E10 May 17, 2023 49m
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