The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 70 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 7 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mostak: Only 5 or 6 Foundation Model Companies Will Exist in 3-5 Years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Mostaque: AI Will Eliminate All Outsourced Programming Jobs in India
“India, all of the outsourcing jobs in programming will go, because GPT-IV can go level three Google programmer exam and pass it.”
Mostaque: AI Will Build Software Automatically, Eliminating Human Coders
“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Meta, and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Mostaque: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Emad Mostaque: Why I Signed the Open Letter for an AI Pause
“The reason I signed that letter, because I think there's a six month pause to get all of our shit together before things go completely insane, and next year this is everywhere, and everyone's investing in everything, and it's just absolute chaos.”
Emad Mostaque: No Current AI Models Will Be Used in a Year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Mostaque: AI developers must stop pre-training models on uncurated internet data
“We've got to stop pre-training big models on all the crazy crap of the internet. And like, we've got to do it fast because this is coming like a train.”
Mostaque: Google will be a primary winner in the AI race
“Google will be one of the main winners here. They have the LLMs, they have the hardware.”
Mostaque: Value in AI is not in proprietary models or data
“The value is not in any proprietary models or data.”
Mostaque: Next year AI investment will be everywhere, causing chaos
“The reason I signed that letter, because I think there's a six month pause to get all of our shit together before things go completely insane, and next year this is everywhere, and everyone's investing in everything, and it's just absolute chaos.”
Mostaque: OpenAI prioritizes building utopian AGI over a commercial business
“No, they're building an AGI to turn the world into utopia. It's written in their path to AGI thing, that they think this can basically bring about utopia.”
Mostaque: AI will have a larger economic impact than COVID-19
“And so, like, I think this will be a bigger economic impact than COVID.”
Mostaque: 50% of All Code on GitHub Is AI-Generated
“50% of all code on GitHub is AI generated now.”
Mostaque: European policy will regulate all technology innovation out of Europe
“Because they're going to regulate all innovation out of Europe, and not embrace this technology to drive them forward.”
Emad Mostaque: Only Five Foundation Model Companies Will Survive by 2028
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Mostak: Generative AI will have a bigger economic impact than COVID
“I think this will be a bigger economic impact than COVID.”
Mostak: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Mostaque: AI transformation is bigger than the printing press
“I think this is bigger than the printing press. It's bigger than anything.”
Mostaque: Stability AI is building models without web-scraped data
“I call them organic free-range models, the ones we're building with no web scrape data.”
Mostaque: Stability AI sees zero failure rate training on Google TPUs
“TPUs are the most scalable architecture, like we have zero failure rate with our TPU language model training, whereas with GPUs it's like there's an ECC error”
Mostaque: Governments will not run on black-box AI models
“Governments will not run on black boxes.”
Mostaque: Chinese tech companies paying $1.2M salaries to AI PhDs
“Certain Chinese companies paying 1.2 million dollar salaries for PhDs.”
Mostaque: AI startups getting $100M funding rounds with zero traction
“Already you're seeing GitHub stars leading to a hundred million dollar funding rounds with zero traction and zero business model.”
Mostaque: AI foundation models are more important infrastructure than 5G
“Because there is no doubt this is more important than five G.”
Mostaque: Every nation needs its own open AI models and data sets
“As part of that, every nation will need their own data sets, which again have from broadcaster data. They will need their own open models that can stimulate innovation internally as well.”
Mostaque: India and Emerging Markets Will Adopt AI Faster Than UK
“Realizing that India and other nations will leapfrog to intelligence augmentation, just that they leapfrog to mobile, they will embrace this technology far quicker than we will in the UK even.”
Mostaque: Financial institutions cannot use AI models with web-crawled data
“If you're a financial services institute, you can't have a single piece of crawl data in there.”
Mostaque: DataComp outperforms OpenAI CLIP at one-fourth the parameter count
“We had datacomp, which is the next generation lion that we funded the compute for, whereby at a quarter of the parameters of OpenAI's clip, it outperforms for the beta data quality.”
Mostaque: AI-synthesized search results will destroy digital media ad revenue
“I think he is right to be worried. Like, again, you look at Google's announcements yesterday, they were talking about this day after Palm Two, You suddenly look at the new Google page where they've got the language model, and it's just text, and where are the …”
Mostaque: No AI models in use today will survive a year
“The reality is no models you that are out today will be used in a year.”
Mostaque: AI will deflate US inflation by disrupting healthcare and education bureaucracy
“It's massively deflationary. The biggest drivers of CPI inflation in the US were education and healthcare. And that was almost all administrative and bureaucratic. In the next few years, guess what gets disrupted? Those. But they don't get disrupted this year …”
Mostaque: Stability AI is the only company allowing image opt-outs from datasets
“We had hundreds of millions of images opt out of stable diffusion because we were the only company in the world To offer opt out of data sets.”
Mostaque: AI language models are reasoning engines, not fact databases
“They were designed to be reasoning machines, not fact machines.”
Mostaque: Every Child Will Have Their Own AI in a Few Years
“Assume that every child will have their own AI in a few years, because that will change the nature of schooling.”
Emad Mostaque Uses GPT-4 as a Personal Therapist
“I already use GPT-IV as a therapist and things like that.”
Mostaque: Meta's pursuit of the metaverse was a complete waste
“Because the metaverse, obviously, is a complete waste.”
Mostaque: Meta holds the best training data for conversational AI
“But who is best for a chatbot? Who has the most data for a chatbot? Meta.”
Emad Mostaque: Google DeepMind's annual salary budget is $1.2 billion
“DeepMind's salary budget is 1.2 billion a year.”
Emad Mostaque: There is no such thing as an unbiased AI model
“There is no such thing as an unbiased model.”
Emad Mostaque: Every Nation Will Need Sovereign Datasets and Open Models
“As part of that, every nation will need their own data sets, which again, have from broadcaster data. They will need their own open models that can stimulate innovation internally as well.”
Emad Mostaque: Google Spends $20 Billion per Year on AI
“Google spend twenty billion dollars a year on AI.”
Emad Mostaque: DeepMind's Annual Salary Budget Is $1.2 Billion
“DeepMind's salary budget is 1.2 billion a year.”