Disclosure
Freise: KKR Lost Around $500 Million in Turkey
“In Turkey, I think we lost around five hundred million. What we didn't see was rule of law was a bit of a flexible concept there.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: $0-$100M ARR AI Scaling Speeds Will Not Become the Norm
“So I'm making the bold prediction that you have just seen three of the incredible winners in the space, but they will be not the norm for whatever comes afterwards.”
Opinion
Freise: AI capital intensity prevents private fund sizes from halving
“I agree, and that is why we don't see fund sizes halving, because exactly of what you said, a lot of these opportunities are so capital intensive, because you suddenly have some interesting places to deploy.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: Bitcoin and the Euro will gain share in a multi-currency reserve system
“I think Bitcoin will take a larger share as will the Euro, but it's going to be more of a mix.”
Opinion
Freise: KKR isn't worried about VC firms entering private equity
“I think the industry is big. Everybody has its place. I have done venture myself to know that it's an entirely different you know, skill set, so I'm not worried about it.”
Opinion
Freise: Tariffs Are Not the Solution for Western Democracies
“I think tariffs are not the answer. We need to work on the underlying issues in our Western democracies. To try to raise money through tariffs is not the right approach.”
Insight
Freise: Founders must pick long-term backers over quick-profit VCs
“As a founder, the Investors you choose are so important. So of course it makes a huge difference. You know, if you're the founder of Helsing and you choose Daniel Eck, because Daniel Eck understands what long-term business building means, you know, and you don…”
Insight
Freise: Investors Must Impose Strict Annual Capital and Concentrated Risk Limits
“To have discipline, even in those times, yes, you want to deploy when there is incredible opportunity, but you need to set yourself Limits, right? There's just limits of how much you invest in a year, how many different types of in the theme things you back, b…”
Disclosure
Freise: KKR deployed 30-40% of its European fund during COVID
“Many people thought at KKR in Europe we were crazy when we leaned in and invested, I think a third, if not 40% of our current fund during COVID.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2025
Freise: KKR's $8B fund is Europe's largest standalone investment vehicle
“So Europe for KKR is an eight billion dollar fund. It's the largest standalone investment fund in Europe.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: KKR's investment in space firm OHB will be a big winner
“My space company in Bremen, which is OHP, we just did that investment. That's going to be a big winner given everything's going on.”
Opinion
Freise: Aiming merely for 2x returns in private equity is failure
“It's a common misunderstanding that my industry is sleepy, boring, and just You know, aiming for those doubles over five years. If we do that, we don't do our job, really.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Freise: 75% of KKR European PE deals are structured as partnerships
“In the last 1015 years, Three quarters of all the investments we have made are partnerships.”
Opinion
Freise: Traditional SaaS Models Will Remain Good Investments Despite AI Hype
“When you see those winners, you better invest in double down and triple down, but it doesn't mean that software, you know, SaaS models investment, that is the bread and butter of many in our industry still. Will not be good investments anymore, and you just ha…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: KKR's DNA will never extend to early-stage venture
“I don't think that the DNA of KKR and of other later stage firms. It extends to what Insight does or what growth funds do. It will never extend to venture because it's a different skill set. It's a very different skill set.”
Assertion Supported
Freise: Only 1% of $192T individual wealth is in alternatives
“I think it's one percent of the 192 trillion are invested in alternatives. If that only goes To five percent you suddenly have 10 trillion dollars.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2035
Freise: KKR Europe's assets under management will double or triple in 10 years
“If you ask me will KKR Europe's asset under management, ah, double and triple over the next 10 years, the answer is yes.”
Opinion
Freise: The Euro is currently the only credible alternative to the US dollar
“Right now, the only credible alternative is the Euro, and we in Europe, we need to get our act together.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Freise: Other defense leaders will emerge alongside Helsing's founder within five years
“Torsten is, is the best, but in five years time, we look back and say, of course, Torsten couldn't have done it all by himself. There will be more, there will be others.”
Opinion
Freise: Europe needs a European SEC and a single pan-European stock exchange
“Yes, of course we need a European SEC. Yes, of course we need A bit more of one pan-European place where people can go public. It's extremely important.”
Opinion
Freise: The European Union has severely over-regulated AI and stifled innovation
“We absolutely over-regulated that space. We need to unleash the power of that technology, technological innovation, and not stifle it by too much innovation for sure.”
Insight
Freise: Indebted governments resort to financial repression to inflate away debt
“So if you don't, if you can't really raise taxation And if you can't really reduce expenditure, the only other way to do it, to get rid of your, you know, interest income, if your interest load is to inflate away your debt, right? So you do financial repressio…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Freise: AI productivity gains will trigger a painful disruption phase
“It's too early to tell. I totally, I, well, I think it will. However, productivity gains, which will be extremely beneficiary to the world, don't mean that the challenges I just mentioned will be solved, because there will be this disruption phase where many, …”
Disclosure
Freise: KKR Passed on an Early Investment Opportunity in Alibaba
“We literally at KKR had the chance to invest in Alibaba a long time ago, and that came on my desk, and I said no.”
