Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2031
Amazon and Alibaba will lose top e-commerce positions within 10 years
“I think in 10 years from now, Amazon and Alibaba will not be the biggest e-commerce companies anymore. They will get disrupted by other companies, younger companies, more creative, more agile companies, and I think people will look back at Amazon and Alibaba l…”
Insight
Quick Commerce Profitability Depends on Sticking to 15-Minute Delivery Windows
“Only in a situation, and that's what we have figured out, and it's proven by the data that we have, only in a situation where you consistently stick to a 15 minutes delivery window, only then your ability to drive a higher rider utilization can allow you to dr…”
Opinion
Traditional retailers are fundamentally advertising businesses
“Existing commerce companies, both offline and online commerce companies, which are only a differently colored iteration of an advertising business. So whoever e-commerce company that you're looking at, and whoever offline commerce company that you're looking a…”
Assertion Contradicted
Amazon and Walmart lose trillions annually in inventory waste
“If you look into the inventory losses and the wastage costs of the likes of Walmart, or even an Amazon, or like normal supermarket chain, it's in the trillions of how much they're losing on a yearly basis of like food and other items that are actually being so…”
Insight
Wenzel: In-house supply chain creates high quick-commerce entry barriers
“You have to build a lot of that assortment or a lot of that procurement and supply chain infrastructure yourself. You have to become the warehouse and the logistic and the procurement company yourself. And only then you are able to fulfill the very high demand…”
Opinion
Wenzel: Delivery fees in quick commerce are an obsolete concept like 90s Yahoo
“Look, I think delivery fees are a little bit of concept of the past, right? It sounds a little bit like Yahoo in the nineties.”
Insight
Wenzel: Higher average order value drives quick-commerce profitability better than fees
“The increase in AOV, the increase in average order value, how much you get customers to Do not, to not only order like one or two items, but indeed order like five, 10, 15 items per order has a significantly higher impact on profitability than charging like an…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Quick Commerce Product Margins Can Reach 50% at Scale
“I think that product margins can converge at scale towards even 50% of revenue over time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JOKR Achieves ~40% Gross Margins Across All Geographic Markets
“I think on a percentage basis, our Gross margin. So after Cox, after product cost and inventory losses, they converge to pretty much the same level across all of the geographies we are in. So they're around like the 40% type of threshold.”
Assertion Partly supported
JOKR Hires Pickers and Riders as Full-Time Staff With Benefits
“For your pickers and for your riders, which in the case of Joker, are always like full-time employees, and hence includes all social security contribution, health insurance, and so on.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
US Quick Commerce Takes Twice as Long to Reach LATAM Margins
“So it takes twice as long for the United States to achieve the same contribution margins as in Latin America, but over a five to 10 years horizon, you will see margins converging to very, very similar levels.”
Assertion Contradicted
JOKR Achieves Positive Contribution Margins Across Most Micro-Fulfillment Hubs
“And we have already in the vast majority of our cities and in our neighborhoods and in the vast majority of our more than 200 micro fulfillment hubs, we are already yielding positive contribution margins after all delivery costs, picking costs, inventory losse…”
Opinion
1-to-2-Hour Delivery Models Cannot Equal 15-Minute Model Margins
“We think that in one hour or two hours delivery type of basically system, we'll never be able to yield the same profit margins as a 15 minutes delivery model.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JOKR Yields Three Times Whole Foods' Revenue Per Square Foot
“We yield at maturity three times higher revenue per square feet as in Whole Foods, which is an incredibly professional and incredibly beautiful company.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wenzel: JOKR achieves higher product margins than marketplace delivery platforms
“We become the supermarket, the wholesaler, the warehouse company, the distribution company, all as part of our company. And hence the profit pool that we have on the actual product margin is significant and significantly higher than with any comparable marketp…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wenzel: JOKR opposes fixed SKU limits in favor of individualized catalogs
“So we would contradict and would oppose the strategy of focusing on standardized catalogs because the joker business is Reversing the thinking of a standardized catalog. So for us, it's not focusing on a standard set of SKUs, be it 1001 1500 or 2000 SKUs that …”
Prediction Held up
JOKR aims to employ all delivery riders as full-time staff
“We are aiming at employing our riders as Full-time employees. We make them basically part of our team, of our culture, and then an equally valued, basically a team member as they would be on the engineering side, on the marketing side, on the operational side,…”
Assertion Supported
JOKR's first delivery neighborhoods turned profitable within six months
“Even though we are only like six months in business, we have the basically first neighborhoods turning profitable now, even though we expected that ourselves to come in significantly later.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wenzel: JOKR can be profitable with one order per week per customer
“So I think we can run a profitable business if the customer comes back just once per week, like four times per month.”
Disclosure
Wenzel: JOKR hits up to 50% procurement margins on local sourcing
“Allows us to tap into a product margin into procurement margin of up to 50% if we procure local food, fresh items, or locally produced packaged food items as local and as direct as possible.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wenzel: JOKR combined picking and delivery costs are 12% to 15%
“And overall, in terms of the combined delivery and picking costs, we're currently averaging about like. 12 to 15%, depending on the market, both together as a percentage of revenue.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wenzel: JOKR Media will generate 10-15% of global revenue near term
“We launched our Joker media proposition only some few weeks ago and already in the first month, it's almost contributing five percent of our global revenue. And we believe that in the future for that to reach basically 10 to 15% already in the near term”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JOKR Replaces Traditional Supermarkets, Not Convenience Stores
“What we are building with Joker is a replacement for the offline supermarket. We're not building a convenience on demand store. We're not building what other refer to as, I don't know, a quick commerce business that is centered around just snacks and alcohol.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
JOKR Reaches 4-5 Monthly Orders Per Customer at $50 AOV
“Our order frequency that is converging towards four to five orders per customer per month, and they would on average spend approximately 50 US dollar when coming to the Joker proposition.”
