Miles Dieffenbach, Managing Director of Investments at Carnegie Mellon University, forecasts expected exit sizes for late-stage venture companies over the next decade.
Insight
$7B Multi-Stage VC Funds Require $800B in Exit Cap for 4x Net
“You're close to, you know, eight hundred billion of market cap needed to return a Forex net for those multi-stage funds. Now, for reference, twenty-twenty-one, the best exit year of all time, there was 850 billion-ish of market cap exit value from that year. O…”
Opinion
Venture Capital Fee Structures Must Change for Large Funds
“You know, we really try to understand has the magic bond been broken between GPs and LPs, which, you know, leads us to, you know, like we think the fee structures need to change to accommodate for that.”
Opinion
Large Venture Funds Charge 2-and-20 Fees for Passive Investing
“You are essentially acting as a long only public equity investor, right? You're not, you know, actively, you know, managing the company. They've got their own HR team. They're doing all their own hiring. You know, they've got a 20 person product team. They've …”
Opinion
Growth VC Funds Should Charge 1% Management Fees and 10% Carry
“But those growth funds that are really for scaled businesses that are mature assets, like, you should be charging long-only public equity fees, which are one in 10, and if you really love your LPs, it'd be zero in 10, but, or budget-based, right? Based on the …”
Assertion Partly supported
Only Top-Decile VC Managers Consistently Beat Public Markets
“Because at that point, top decile, you are achieving returns above the PME consistently. But below that, even top quartile, you're not.”
Assertion Supported
Mature Venture Funds Yield a Median 8% Net IRR
“The median IRR is about eight percent net for that asset class, and the top quartile is a bit higher, 15%, but the MOIC is about two and a half x, right?”