Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2046
Macdonald: In 15-20 Years, Nobody Will Own a Car or License
“Which is why I do think in some future world, maybe not five years, but 15 or 20 years, Everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around. And I think bikes and sc…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2031
Waymo and Tesla Will Eventually Have to Partner With Uber
“I think ultimately it's in both of their interests to put their vehicles on our network, even if they have their own robo taxi apps or their own one P apps, even if they work with our competitors on the rideshare side or on the delivery side. I think everyone …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mac: Autonomy will eventually be superior to human rides in all use cases
“It's existential because at the end of the day, it's a better product than our core product in many use cases, and I think those use cases grow over time, and eventually it's better in all use cases.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Uber's Human-Driven Rides Grow Faster in Top AV Markets Than Nationally
“Even in the largest AV markets, where today we don't have AVs, like San Francisco and LA, our human-driven business is growing faster than the rest of the US.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Autonomy Will Take Decades to Match Human Labor Costs in Brazil
“Two of our large, three largest countries by volume are India and Brazil. You know, the average fare in Brazil is like, Three 54 bucks USD and India it's two 53 bucks or something like that. It's going to be decades until the cost of autonomy compresses to the…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Macdonald: Waymo, Tesla, and Multiple Other AV Players Will Win Globally
“I think there's going to be more than two winners. Do I think Waymo and Tesla will ultimately be winners? Yes, I do. I don't know who, who's going to bet against either of those, but I think there will be more winners.”
Insight
Macdonald: In the End, Distribution Wins Over Autonomous Technology
“I think in the end, distribution wins.”
Assertion Supported
Uber Burned $52 Million Weekly on Subsidies Before Exiting China
“I remember the last few weeks in the negotiation, we were burning fifty two million a week in China, just on price subsidies, because there was this heated behind the scenes battle happening
To get to the best economics and the ultimate sort of surrender or u…”
Opinion
Macdonald: A US Tech Company Winning Chinese Mobility Was Geopolitically Implausible
“I don't think it was plausible that we were ultimately going to be the market winner. I mean, even for geopolitical reasons alone, like the notion that a U S tech company would ultimately be the largest mobility service in China. I just don't think it's someth…”
Insight
Enterprise AI ROI Requires Top-Down Headcount Constraints, Not Bottom-Up Cuts
“I think the way companies ultimately have to extract AI efficiency, at least from like a pure OPEX perspective, is just in your target setting, hold the constraints tighter. Like, if we really believe that AI is making our employees 10% or 20% or 30% more effi…”
What-if
Mac: Uber Could Run Today's Scope in Five Years with Fewer People
“If you took everything Uber does today and held it static and said, you know, in five years you're going to need more or less people, I'd say, well, we could do everything we do today with less people in five years because of the power of AI, but we're going t…”
Disclosure
Mac: Uber refuses API access to third-party price-comparison aggregators
“We've not participated historically in the aggregation apps where some, you know, somebody will come to us and pitch and say, hey, you know, give us APIs that give us real-time info on Every car, every Uber car in the network what the price of that ride is, wh…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Macdonald: Price, reliability, and safety will define ride-sharing in 10 years
“Because like ride sharing at the end of the day is price reliability and safety. That's all it is. That's what it was 10 years ago. I think that's what it's going to be 10 years from now, even when it's autonomous vehicles. It's like price, reliability, safety…”
Opinion
Macdonald: Missing Out on Autonomy Would Be Existential for Uber
“If Uber doesn't have autonomy on our platform, and we will we will, we are investing actively and aggressively to bring it to market, but if we didn't, then it certainly would be existential for our core business.”
Assertion Contradicted
Didi-Kuaidi Merger Revealed 200 Employees Secretly on Both Payrolls Simultaneously
“When Uber and Didi did our deal we were the two largest players, but before there was a third player, I think it was called Quaddi, and Didi and Quaddi merged and they sort of merged the companies, they did a deal, you're combining HR systems, and they realize…”
Opinion
Mac: Brian Chesky was right that chat interfaces suit hotel bookings poorly
“Brian Chesky got kind of roasted, but I thought it was an insightful point when he said, it's not clear to him that like the right interface for hotel booking is a chat interface. And he was kind of called a Luddite and this and that, but like, I think he was …”
Assertion Supported
Macdonald: Uber's delivery business is nearly mobility's size and growing faster
“Because, I mean, even this sort of like the existential questions we get about AV tend to ignore the fact that we have basically an equally sized food delivery business that's in market leading positions in most of our markets around the world. We get almost z…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Food Delivery Will Soon Be Significantly Larger Than Uber's Mobility Business
“And for us, like when this deal, you know, we have to go through the sort of requisite regulatory and shareholder processes, but delivery will be a much bigger business for mobility.”
Opinion
Macdonald: Membership is Uber's most efficient long-term consumer lever
“I think membership is the most efficient long-term consumer lever that we've got.”
Insight
Variable-Cost Model Makes Uber's Loyalty Perks Uniquely Difficult to Build
“The beauty of our model is we're primarily a variable cost model, right? It means when demand drops, great, our costs scale down with it, but it also means that we just don't have a fixed capacity to give away, and so it just makes the challenges for building …”
Disclosure
Macdonald: New Uber products must show a multi-billion dollar GMV path
“For that to even be interesting, I have to see a path within a few years to multiple billions of dollars of GMV, and it just actually constrains your thinking a little bit.”
Insight
Macdonald: Corporate incubation is slower because teams get fat on resources
“The other challenge of standing up a new business with a big company with a big P&L and a big balance sheet is people just get fat on the resources, right? And so you don't build it the way you would build it if you were a startup because you just have more re…”
Disclosure
Mac: Autonomy is Uber's largest single standalone investment area
“It's the largest single sort of standalone investment we make. Now don't be, you know, don't get me wrong with at a PNL our size, we're moving billions of dollars around every month, but yes, it's the largest single area of investment.”
Assertion Supported
Uber Mobility Revenue Dropped 84% in Three Weeks During COVID
“Our mobility business had lost 84% of our top line in three weeks. The company was burning billions annually. We didn't have a core business producing cash.”
