Opinion
Tomaino: Crypto VCs hype private tokens and dump them on retail
“A big part of the crypto VC game is doing these private token deals, and then you kind of build some prestige media narrative hype and then sell the token to retail, and then retail gets sucked in, and the VCs kind of dump tokens on retail. That's like a big G…”
Opinion
Tomaino: Taylor Swift exemplifies soulless greed for money and attention
“To me, she's kind of the definition of someone that has this, like, soulless greed for attention and money, and is not authentic at all.”
Opinion
Tomaino: Silicon Valley is driven by soulless greed, citing Sequoia Capital
“My sentiment in a lot of Silicon Valley is that it's very, there, there's a lot of soulless greed, and just this desire to create these kind of you know, massive funds create massive attention, and I think, again, Sequoia is the best example of this, and 1789,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: Crypto tribes and economic alignment will reduce global violence
“So I actually think, like, crypto shilling, crypto tribes can reduce the amount of violence in the world in the long term and will.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Tomaino: Donald Trump will run for president and win from a jail cell
“I think he'll be running and winning from a jail cell as well. The entertaining, the most entertaining outcome is is the most likely, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: NFTs will achieve greater mainstream adoption than cryptocurrencies
“Yeah, I mean, I think NFTs are gonna come back in a big way. I, I've said, and I think still you know, NFTs have a good chance to be you know, bigger than cryptocurrencies in terms of mainstream adoption. And the reason is because people, I think more people i…”
Opinion
Tomaino: FTX was a perception fraud enabled by politicians and investors
“The people that got sucked into this perception game that FTX was playing that, you know, the politicians, the regulators, the investors, they all now are trying to just sweep it under the rug and say, oh, I didn't know about this financial fraud. It wasn't ju…”
Insight
Tomaino: Crypto fund managers must beat a 50/50 BTC/ETH benchmark
“I mean, as a venture manager, you get paid two and 20, maybe more, maybe a little more, maybe a little less, but those are meaningful fees. The reason that you get those fees is because you can outperform you know, an index and you know, every private equity F…”
What-if
Tomaino: Incumbent VCs would lose prestige if judged on fund performance
“If you know, everyone viewed Fund performance as the, you know, the metric of success, these, the big, you know, incumbents wouldn't have the prestige that they have.”
Opinion
Tomaino: a16z's large fund size drives investment in hyped token projects
“But yeah, I think more recently Fundsize has probably caused them to do some of the stuff that people you know, accuse them for, which again, I don't think they're dumping. They have to be very careful about that, but I do think they are investing in some of t…”
Opinion
Tomaino: Crypto VC Funds Should Downsize After Raising Too Much Capital
“A hundred percent. I mean, this is again, a generalization, but I think way too much money was raised. You know, you had people raise billion dollar funds that just had no unique insights or you know, no investing prowess really or anything like that, but they…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: Crypto VCs would succeed by secretly buying just BTC and ETH
“Like I think a strategy, you know, a dishonest, but probably successful strategy for one of these billion dollar fund managers would be to, you know, pitch to LPs that you're investing in, you know, bleeding edge crypto that's gonna, gonna push the space forwa…”
Opinion
Tomaino: Solana was an insider VC token marketed to retail
“I have historically viewed Solana as a very tourist thing, you know, because it came in kind of right at the beginning of the last bull markets. It was, you know, aggressively marketing. There's also one of these insider VC coins that sold a lot to early insid…”
Opinion
Tomaino: Crypto speculation empowers people disenfranchised by legacy financial systems
“I actually think it's a really good thing. Like, there's a lot of people in the world that are disenfranchised by the existing economic systems, and crypto is like permissionless speculation that anyone can participate in, in kind of new financial systems. So …”
Assertion Contradicted
Tomaino: Sam Bankman-Fried was Joe Biden's second-largest donor
“The second largest donor to Joe Biden was Sam Bankman Freed.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: Donald Trump will lean into crypto in a big way in 2024
“I personally think, you know, he's going to be leaning into crypto in a big way in 24, 24, that's my prediction, but we'll see.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: Crypto market cap could reach $10 trillion on speculation alone
“I still think there's a chance we get to. 10 trillion in total market value without that, because again, this, the idea of, you know, empowering billions of people around the world with this kind of new financial system is revolutionary”
Disclosure
Tomaino reveals he was effectively pushed out of Coinbase
“Well, frankly, I mean, I got pushed out of Coinbase. Like, I wasn't a, Great employee, I think is the truth. I think I did a lot for Coinbase in the early days. But I wasn't, Coinbase got to a certain point where I wasn't great at kind of office politics and f…”
Opinion
Tomaino: Andreessen Horowitz's crypto fund has probably grown too big
“A-Six and Z is a great fund. In crypto. And I have a lot of respect for them. I do think they probably got too big.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Tomaino: NFT trading activity will resurge within three to five years
“I would say three to five years, you know, it's likely before that, but you know, with a high degree of conviction, I would say three to five years.”
Opinion
Tomaino: Influencer culture of shilling and dumping on retail is toxic
“I think if you're like a leader in the space, I think shilling is, toxic. And there's a big, you know, crypto Twitter influencer culture of these people that are, you know, shilling loudly, dumping on retail, and that gives a bad experience to new people and a…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tomaino: Big tech engineers enter crypto in bull markets, leave in bear
“They always come during bull markets and then leave during bear markets.”
Opinion
Tomaino: Crypto is the most important social technology of our lifetime
“Like, I genuinely believe and still believe that, you know, crypto is the most important social technology of our lifetime.”
Assertion Supported
1confirmation's first fund had zero complete write-offs across 22 investments
“In the first one, 22 investments, we've only we haven't had any zeros. We've had two projects that basically you know, dissolved, but they actually gave back, in one case, about 50%, and in, in another case, about 70%. So we actually haven't had any, Zeroes in…”
