Prediction Partly held up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US

Marko Papic · Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha at Clocktower Group (Capital Allocators, EP.161) · Oct 26, 2020 · at 21:30

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, details his post-2020 election asset allocation forecast across currencies, bonds, equities, and commodities.

0:00 / 0:12exact quote · 12.6s

720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark

“Because if Biden or Trump wins from a macro perspective, I think dollars going down, I think ten-year yields are going up. I think U.S. Equities are going to do well, but I think global equities are going to do better. Commodities are also going to do extremely well.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Marko Papic predicts that following the 2020 presidential election, the US dollar will fall, 10-year Treasury yields will rise, global equities will outperform US equities, and commodities will perform extremely well.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Marko Papic made a four-part macro prediction on October 26, 2020. Over the subsequent 1-year evaluation period (to October 26, 2021): (1) 10-year Treasury yields rose significantly from 0.81% to 1.61% (+80 bps), confirming his yield call; (2) Commodities performed extremely well, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index gaining over +45%, confirming his commodity call; (3) However, global equities failed to outperform U.S. equities—while both did well, the S&P 500 returned approximately +36.4% total return versus roughly +25% to +27% for MSCI ACWI ex USA; (4) The US Dollar Index (DXY) was essentially flat to slightly higher (+0.97%), although the Fed's broader nominal dollar index fell slightly (-1.4%). Because multiple major legs held (yields and commodities) while the relative equity call failed, the bundled prediction resolves to partially true.

US 10-Year Treasury constant maturity yield rose from 0.81% on October 26, 2020, to 1.61% on October 26, 2021.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) surged from ~69.60 to ~102.30 (+45%) between October 26, 2020, and October 26, 2021.
The S&P 500 total return index gained ~36.4%, outperforming MSCI ACWI ex USA (which returned ~25% to 27%) over the one-year period.
The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) rose slightly from 93.05 to 93.95 (+0.97%) over the same period.

Checked against

[1] macromicro.me [2] facebook.com [3] moomoo.com [4] bcrp.gob.pe [5] facebook.com [6] stlouisfed.org [7] stlouisfed.org [8] multpl.com

"DGS10" "2020-10-26" "2021-10-26" "DXY" "October 26, 2021" "93." OR "94." US Dollar Index October 26 2020 October 26 2021 "DXY" "93." OR "92." "2020-10-26" OR "Oct 26, 2020" 10 year treasury yield October 26 2020 October 26 2021 "Bloomberg Commodity Index" "2020-10-26" "2021-10-26" DXY "2020-10-26" "2021-10-26"

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

commodities global equities Ten-year Treasury Yields US dollar US equities

⚑ Spot an error? Report it

More from Marko Papic

Opinion

Papic: US asset outperformance driven by post-2020 fiscal spending is over

“It's the fiscal gravy train that gave us exceptionalism of the U.S. Asset flows from 20 20 to 20 25. That's over.”

Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 11:24 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)

Prediction Held up

Papic: Trump will likely moderate tariffs to 5-10% rather than 40%

“I think the response is going to be President Trump saying, I was actually going for five to 10% across the board of tariffs, not 40%. Once the market sniffs that out, I think it's very dangerous to be overly bearish on risk assets.”

Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 25:00 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)

Opinion

Papic: The U.S. Is Starting to Trade Like an Emerging Market

“What's happening right now in the U.S., and I don't want to be too facetious or critical, but the U.S. Is starting to trade in many ways like an emerging market.”

Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 41:21 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Papic: Europe Will See a Tsunami of LNG Supply Disproving Deindustrialization

“Europe is going to be absolutely drowned in its tsunami wave of LNG supply that will crash on its shores over the next two years. This whole deindustrialization debate is wrong.”

Marko Papic Apr 14, 2025 ▶ 57:13 Geopolitical Uncertainty – James Aitken, Louis-Vincent Gave, and Marko Papic (EP.440)

Opinion

Papic: Commodities offer the best downside portfolio protection in stagflation

“And ironically, I think the best downside risk protection is commodities, which is weird because commodities should be correlated to growth. So when growth suffers, commodities should suffer with them. That's not really a good hedge the way bonds were. But I t…”

Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 16:52 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Papic: China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade

“So I think that China has peaked as a geopolitical power for the next decade.”

Marko Papic Feb 28, 2022 ▶ 23:45 Marko Papic – Geopolitical Shock in a Multi-Polar World (Capital Allocators, EP.237)

Papic: Dollar will fall, yields rise, and global equities beat US

More from Marko Papic

Turn any episode into a week of clips.