Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Capital Allocators: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

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Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Walthour: NJ Director said State Investment Council opposed minority-owned firms

“And McDonough says to me, Jake, the SIC is not a fan of investing in minority owned firms.”

Jake Walthour Aug 10, 2020 ▶ 54:00 Diversity, Equity & Inclusion 1: Jacob Walthour – A Blueprint for Diversity (Capital Allocators, EP.151)

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027

Grantham: The AI bubble will break, led down by Nvidia

“This is exactly where you'd expect the bubble to break, and you would expect, other things being even, that it will be let down by NVIDIA, followed closely by the other giants.”

Jeremy Grantham Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 49:01 Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP.493)

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031

The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031

“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this pre…”

Yann Robard Jun 17, 2024 ▶ 51:50 Yann Robard - Liquidity Solutions for Private Capital at Dawson (EP.392)

Opinion

Daniel: Multi-managers like Citadel are new shadow banks relying on Fed bailouts

“So I really, truly believe that they are the new shadow banking system, that whenever something goes awry, there's a reason why Millennium hired who they hired, why Citadel hired who they hired, to make sure that when the calamity occurs, they call the Fed for…”

Vincent Daniel Jul 3, 2023 ▶ 46:39 Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel - Big Shorts and Big Longs (Capital Allocators, EP.325)

What-if

Gave: Europe's Energy Policy May Have Emboldened Russia's Invasion

“I think if Europe hadn't followed such a boneheaded energy policy, perhaps Russia wouldn't have invaded Ukraine.”

Louis-Vincent Gave Apr 25, 2022 ▶ 33:02 Louis-Vincent Gave – Macro Consequences of Government Sanctions (Capital Allocators, EP.247)

Assertion Partly supported

Sternlicht: Lordstown Motors committed fraud and lied about vehicle orders

“They front run the trade. They lied about their orders. They made up the car. It was a fraud. The model they showed the street was not active.”

Barry Sternlicht Oct 4, 2021 ▶ 54:26 Barry Sternlicht – Masterclass in Real Estate in a Post-COVID World (Capital Allocators, EP.216)

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported

Sawtell-Rickson: APRA Bans Super Funds From New Members After Consecutive Failures

“If you underperform that benchmark by more than 50 basis points, then you fail, and you have to write to your members and tell them that you failed this test. And if you fail for two years in a row, you can't accept new members.”

Sonya Sawtell-Rickson Oct 9, 2023 ▶ 59:26 Sonya Sawtell-Rickson – Total Portfolio Approach at Australian Superannuation HESTA (EP.342)

Assertion Contradicted

Rodman: There Has Never Been a Stored Nuclear Waste Accident in History

“There has never been an accident with nuclear waste in the history.”

Adam Rodman Mar 27, 2023 ▶ 32:55 Adam Rodman – The Case for Nuclear (Climate Solutions EP.4, Capital Allocators EP.304)

Assertion Supported

CFTC cannot have more than three commissioners from the same political party

“By law, we can't have more than three members of the commission of the same political party.”

Rostin Behnam Feb 22, 2021 ▶ 6:38 Acting Chairman Rostin Behnam – CFTC Regulatory Perspectives on Crypto and Climate (Capital Allocators, EP.178)

Assertion Contradicted

Libby: US flared natural gas exceeds Africa and Japan's total energy use

“There's more natural gas that gets flared in the US every year than the amount of energy consumed in Africa and Japan.”

Billy Libby May 23, 2022 ▶ 40:09 Billy Libby – Disruptive Venture Funding at Upper90 (Capital Allocators, EP.251)

Open predictions the full timeline →

52days Bessent: Marine Le Pen will become president of France in 18-24 months Scott Bessent · prediction date: 2026-11-04 59days Michalik: Kinderhook expects a three-year hold for Ironclad Rob Michalik · prediction date: 2026-11-11 213days Gave: Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will not flare up soon Louis-Vincent Gave · prediction date: 2027-04-14 259days Solomon: Active Management Will Not Disappear Jeffrey Solomon · prediction date: 2027-05-30

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

Person	Eps	Statements	Supported	Full support rate
Ed Grefenstette	2	65	11	100%
Sujit Indap	1	16	10	100%
Joel Greenblatt	1	34	9	100%
Frank Danieli	1	31	8	100%
Stephen Gilmore	2	25	7	100%
Alex Sacerdote	1	24	7	100%
Jean Hynes	2	40	7	100%
Brendan Ballou	1	11	7	100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“when you've seen the rise of these individual closed-end funds that are 20 plus billion dollars to be deployed over a four-year period. You can be the world's most extraordinary investor, but if you…”

Lauren Hochfelder, Jul 30, 2026 · ▶ 28:37

“That's where I bring in my more fundamental view that no country ever in history has achieved economic success without having cheap energy.”

Baroness Dambisa Moyo, Jul 13, 2026 · ▶ 45:07

“How does someone get to be the CEO of a Fortune 500 company or a Euro stocks 50 company? By demonstrating skill as a capital allocator all through their career? That's a giant pile of hooey. They do…”