Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Grantham: The AI bubble will break, led down by Nvidia
“This is exactly where you'd expect the bubble to break, and you would expect, other things being even, that it will be let down by NVIDIA, followed closely by the other giants.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: The market bubble will likely break in weeks or months
“So I think this is an indicator, not a certainty, but a strong possibility that we are quite close to the bubble breaking in terms of psychology. Perhaps a matter of weeks or months, not years.”
Opinion
Grantham: Goldman and JPMorgan will never tell clients to exit overpriced markets
“You will never hit a Goldman Sachs or a JP Morgan Tell you to get out of the market because it's ludicrously overpriced. Everybody knows today it's ludicrously overpriced, but no one can tell you, and they never will.”
Assertion Supported
Grantham: US housing never bubbled nationwide until Greenspan and Bernanke
“The American housing market had famously bubbled in Chicago and bust in California, bubbled in Florida, etc. Never altogether until Greenspan and Bernanke.”
Insight
Grantham: Endowment boards struggle to manage giant egos of wealthy PE and VC donors
“Many committees are a nearly impossible task where, particularly in the endowment business, colleges, because rich graduates who've made big donations, Would love to sit on the board. They are treated with kid gloves because they're wonderfully good at making …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: South Korea Will Cease Being a Viable State Within 50 Years
“That South Korea cannot be a viable political entity in as little as 4050 years. Cannot.”
Opinion
Grantham: Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers Are Unaccountable 'Teflon Men'
“My biggest investment peeve is that the Greenspans and the Larry Summers, they get away with murder. I call them the Teflon men. I was heartbroken when they kept getting reappointed by new presidents that I had higher hopes for, even as they had just presided …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: Capitalism Must Change or Humanity Ceases as Successful Species
“Capitalism will either change, or we will cease to exist as a successful species.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: African migration to Europe will be society's primary political risk
“So I think it will be stress on those areas, and immigration, and the pressure on Europe of millions of Africans attempting to migrate will be the main political risk that we face, and a real threat to the well-being of society.”
Insight
Grantham: Diversified venture capital has stock-market-level risk with higher returns
“Venture capital, not surprisingly, has a higher return than the stock market because of the riskiness of each individual unit. But if you have a diversified portfolio, you have no more risk than the stock market, but you have a higher return.”
Opinion
Grantham: Investors should own as few U.S. equities as possible
“I do recommend owning as few US equities as you can face.”
Insight
Grantham: Moderate inflation supports faster growth and better worker treatment
“A moderate amount of inflation is completely compatible with a healthy economy, faster growth rates, and better treatment of the workers who have been sadly neglected in the US in particular.”
Insight
Grantham: Asset managers get fired in bull markets, not bear markets
“People think you get fired for underperforming in bear markets, which is nonsense. In a serious bear market, the client becomes catatonic.”
Insight
Grantham: Big asset managers cannot commercially survive fighting major bull markets
“If you're a big company, you can't fight a major bull market. It's ridiculous. It's terrible business. You have to roll with the punch.”
Assertion Contradicted
Grantham: Every Two-Sigma Asset Bubble Historically Reverted to Pre-Bubble Trends
“In major countries, there was no exception to the principle that an overpriced market at two sigma, which is just a statistical measure. If you look at the price, you look at the breakout on the upside. If it's two sigma, there is no exception to the rule that…”
Insight
Grantham: Navigating major bubbles is all that matters in long-term investing
“The only things that matter in life in investing are the founding, forming, and breaking of the great bubbles. That determines everything. If you can sidestep half of the pain, that will make all the difference in the world.”
Opinion
Grantham: Investors should own non-US and emerging value stocks
“For a long time now, you should be owning non-US stocks, developed value stocks, and emerging country value stocks.”
Opinion
Grantham: The US stock market is completely overpriced
“The US is simply too high priced from top to toe.”
Insight
Grantham: Super-Bubbles End When Speculative Market Leaders Dramatically Underperform
“I developed a singular rule that only has occurred four times in U.S. History. The stocks that have been leading the charge up 70% in 1928, the meme stocks in twenty-twenty, up huge amounts. When they start to underperform dramatically, the market, as the bull…”
What-if
Grantham: AI rally aborted the full crushing of the 2022 super-bubble
“The invasion of chat and AI ruined my perfectly good bear market. I still got a bear market. It was way over 20% decline, but it wasn't the crushing of a super bubble that would have happened. Without the great investment associated, the capex associated with …”
Assertion Partly supported
Grantham: AI CapEx is larger than any peacetime program in history
“AI Moving at warp speed, involving a greater CapEx program than has ever happened before outside of war.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: Future markets might tax stocks to fund human price discovery
“In the end, you have to have some price work. You have to find a way of paying a few thousand good analysts to help price the equities, and I don't know how they will work it out. It's over my pay grade, but one day in the distant future, there might be a very…”
Insight
Grantham: Private equity and venture capital winners tend to stay winners
“Brilliant private equity and venture capital, and they are so much stickier than general money management. They don't turn over as fast in private equity and venture capital. The winners tend to stay winners.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Grantham: Green Venture Capital Faces Two to Three More Bad Years
“And a lot more will fail, probably, given the level of help from the administration. I would think we're good for at least another two or three bad years.”
