The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Marko Papic (5)Eric Mogelof (5)Josh Wolfe (4)Larry Siegel (3)Ben Forman (3)Yann Robard (2)Tom Steyer (2)Ted Seides (2)Regan Bozman (2)Rajiv Jain (2)Matt Miller (2)Matt Brown (2)
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Next up (60)
52 days left 2026-11-04
Bessent: Marine Le Pen will become president of France in 18-24 months
“I would predict that in the next 18 or 24 months, Marine Le Pen
The bête noire of European politics is going to be president of France, and she's going to be president of France because the alternative on the left is worse than she is.”
59 days left 2026-11-11
213 days left 2027-04-14
259 days left 2027-05-30
370 days left 2027-09-18
452 days left 2027-12-09
McCusker: TH Lee will face another Hightower transaction in a few years
“Hightower is owned by TH Lee. It's been a very successful investment for them. They've rolled it into a continuation fund. That continuation fund has a life on it, and they'll have to figure out something. There will be another transaction a few years from now…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Seides: Unlocked Private Market Capital Will Flow Back Into Public Equities
“The biggest impact of that over the next couple of years is that when private markets unlock for liquidity, the first wave of that money from the institutional market is going to go back to the public markets. It's not going to get recycled in the private mark…”
496 days left 2028-01-22
Bill Spitz Predicts 60/40 Portfolios Will Yield Mid-Single-Digit Returns Post-2018
“And where we end up is sort of a ten-year expected return on equities of Five-ish, let's call it five and some change, a little more for international stocks. Bonds are sort of three-ish. So I think looking ahead, the simple sixty-forty portfolio is going to g…”
722 days left 2028-09-04
Birmingham: Remote work will decrease over the next five years
“I think certain fields will get back to what it used to be. I don't think everyone's going to now be hybrid. I don't think the new norm is remote work as much as it is now. Andy always does this to me. If you were going to make a bet that in five years it woul…”
774 days left 2028-10-26
788 days left 2028-11-09
924 days left 2029-03-25
US equity markets will deliver 8% to 10% annualized returns through 2029
“No, I think the next 10 years in the equity markets, the U.S., and I think globally will be better, but let's just say the U.S., I still think we'll get eight to 10%, and I think it's because rates are still low and money has to go to work somewhere, so I stil…”
938 days left 2029-04-08
Dawn predicts secondary market volume will hit $400B-$500B within five years
“So it would not surprise me if the GP side of this market is 200 to two hundred and fifty billion dollars in five years time. So if you add that onto what we think is a natural growth also, In the LP market, getting to four to five hundred billion is reasonabl…”
1158 days left 2029-11-14
CPPIB expects its assets to double to $1 trillion by 2029
“I think it's hard to conceive of a fund like ours of five hundred billion dollars going to a trillion over the next six or seven years or so. It is hard to conceive of us maximizing returns at a particular target level of risk without truly global exposure to …”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1294 days left 2030-03-30
1336 days left 2030-05-11
1487 days left 2030-10-09
Mogelof: Managed accounts and custom target dates will drive private markets adoption
“I would say over the next three to five years, the off-the-shelf is going to take the longest time to get adoption to move, but in the meantime, you're going to see a lot of allocations through managed accounts and custom target date.”
1561 days left 2030-12-22
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Brown: US wealth management assets will reach about $60 trillion by 2030
“In 2030, that number is going to grow to about 60 trillion dollars, which isn't necessarily a very large growth rate, but still an enormous number, which means that the U.S. Wealth management market represents one of the largest collective pools of capital glo…”
1672 days left 2031-04-12
1766 days left 2031-07-15
Casdin: Drug development success rates will rise and costs will fall
“Our industry over the next 10 years, and I can say that comfortably, drugs are going to be higher chance of approval, higher chance of efficacy. Probability of success is going to go up continually, and cost of that success is going to come down.”
1795 days left 2031-08-13
Mid-market GP stakes will roll into perpetual vehicles within a decade
“I think we're going to get to some .810 years down the road where these mid-market
Funds are still holding quite a few high quality assets, and they might be rolled into some sort of special purpose or perpetual life vehicle where LPs then get the option to ei…”
1857 days left 2031-10-14
Corlett: TDM will compound $1.5B into $15B over next 10 years
“We're now at 1.5, and we think we can keep compounding at the same rate for another 10 years. And over that time, the 1.5 turns into fifteen billion and still be able to invest Exactly the same way we've been investing the past 16 years.”
1857 days left 2031-10-14
1896 days left 2031-11-22
1934 days left 2031-12-30
1935 days left 2031-12-31
The private capital secondary market will reach $1 trillion by 2031
“I'm on the record for saying that the secondary market is going to get to a trillion dollars by 2031. Whenever I say that, the first reaction is, you're crazy. And I've heard that a few times, I guess, in my career. But I have a deep conviction around this pre…”
1959 days left 2032-01-24
Grinda: Psychedelics will follow cannabis path to legalization in 2020s
“We went from something that was criminalized to then being medicalized, to then decriminalized, to then legalized, and that led to the creation of countless of companies in the category. I think the same thing is going to happen with psilocybin, with ketamine,…”
1994 days left 2032-02-28
1994 days left 2032-02-28
1994 days left 2032-02-28
Papic: China will remain dependent on semiconductor imports for the next decade
“China's trying its best to get to those sophisticated levels below five nanometer chip level, which it can't. And I think it's going to take a long time for them to do that. Much longer than people think. There's no Moore's law in getting to that level. And so…”
2023 days left 2032-03-28
2068 days left 2032-05-12
2072 days left 2032-05-16
Top-tier venture managers will deliver the best returns over 10-20 years
“The skill That exists and the innovation that exists, whether it's in Silicon Valley or whether it's in New York and other technology hubs, will continue to make investing in top tier venture managers the most attractive returned over, not necessarily the next…”
2205 days left 2032-09-26
Brown: Up to $10T will shift from wealth to alts next decade
“So really what we're seeing here is not only a growing wealth market overall, growing allocations to alternative investments, say from three to five percent, 10%, or 15%, which is causing really a massive reallocation of capital from traditional assets to alte…”
2408 days left 2033-04-17
Giannini: Private Wealth Will Grow for 10 Years but Favor Scaled GPs
“That will continue to be a growing part of the market. It will have hiccups. We saw the ones at the end of last year on some of the name products, and so I think people need to be careful in terms of how they're selling into that market, the investor base that…”
2471 days left 2033-06-19
2481 days left 2033-06-29
2932 days left 2034-09-23
2953 days left 2034-10-14
3135 days left 2035-04-14
Gave: Emerging Markets and Listed Equities Are the 10-Year Trade as Capital Flows In
“Today, if you're a young aspiring money manager, you should be launching an equity fund, you should be launching an EM fund, and even if you're doing it with very little money, that's the trade for the next 10 years. That's where the capital is going to go, be…”
3142 days left 2035-04-21
3170 days left 2035-05-19
Mogelof: Wealth Allocations to Alternatives Will Exceed 10% to 15%
“Based upon our conversations with wealth platforms and advisors, we think that two to three percent should ultimately be 10, 15 plus percent. And if you were to do the numbers, that just means that there's literally trillions of dollars of money that's in moti…”
3198 days left 2035-06-16
McKeon: Digital wallets will become as ubiquitous as email addresses
“I don't know if it's five years or nine years or 13 years, but I do know that our north star at the fund is that everybody is going to have a digital wallet. They are going to be as ubiquitous as email addresses. It's gonna be the way you receive your paycheck…”
3313 days left 2035-10-09
3961 days left 2037-07-18
4989 days left 2040-05-11
7166 days left 2046-04-27
Sloane: Roughly $10T in Assets Will Change Hands Over Two Decades
“What we realized while building value in the Burger King business was that there was a massive opportunity to invest in fragmented markets, high quality businesses behind this baby boomer generational transition, 10 trillion of assets or so set to change hands…”
8288 days left 2049-05-23
8565 days left 2050-02-24
8875 days left 2050-12-31
9187 days left 2051-11-08
9972 days left 2054-01-01
16484 days left 2071-10-31
26772 days left 2099-12-31
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
China will reach negative population growth in the 2030s
“In 2030, or sometime in the 20 thirties, China is going to move to negative population growth.”
Khajuria: Private markets will reach $20 trillion or more in a decade
“The 12 trillion dollar industry is bigger than the GDP of most nations. And I think it's headed to grow further in the next decade, perhaps to 20 trillion or more.”
Steyer predicts long-term energy storage systems will be viable by 2033
“Over the next 10 years, we'll have storage systems that enable us to do long-term storage”
Khajuria: Private markets are on track to hit $20T within a decade
“And then equally, if you look at the size and scale of this industry, 12 odd trillion on its way to 20 trillion across private markets in the next decade, this is an important part of the economy, period.”
Kleinman: Mutual Funds and ETFs Will Blend Private Assets into Products
“Traditional asset managers, i.e. Mutual funds, ETFs, they're gonna start injecting some amount of private assets blended into their products.”
Sacerdote: Inference-time reasoning will be adopted by all AI models
“And now deep seek is basically solidifying this inference time reasoning is going to be adopted by all the models.”
Kelly: Private Wealth Will Be the Fastest Growing Source of Alternatives Capital
“The demand from private wealth will be the fastest growing source of capital into alternatives for the foreseeable future.”
Seides: Major private equity platforms will acquire deal teams within five years
“I'd be very surprised if you don't see one of the larger private equity players try to grow through acquiring teams. They are long capital and short origination or dealmaking capability relative to the capital they could command. So it does make sense that if …”
Large institutions will shift to separate accounts over traditional commingled funds
“I think for the biggest institutions, you'll see more separate and managed account platforms that those will gain share because they give just so much more Control. Control and transparency to investors. I think at the big end, you'll clearly see that.”
Sacerdote: Driverless vehicles have hit mainstream takeoff and will expand
“Driverless did hit the mainstream takeoff. We are taking driverless taxis, one basis point of miles driven, and they're going to be rolling out cities, and it's just going to get bigger and bigger. So that is one that's definitely going to be hitting.”
BlackRock's acquisition of Preqin signals upcoming private equity index products
“BlackRock just bought Prequin, and they're going to be putting out private equity index products first”
Bergstrom: Open-ended credit hedge funds are in secular decline
“The open-ended credit hedge fund businesses we believe in, in secular decline, not going away this month or this year. But shrinking significantly in favor of closed-end structures, a big long-term part of that is hurdle rates, as you mentioned.”
Madorsky: AI will build initial PE financial models within three years
“In three years, certainly AI will be able to create a first or second run at our models. It might not be able to fine tune or drive a lot of the assumptions that we need the qualitative rich data that we're collecting, but to actually create and populate the E…”
Robinhood, Revolut, and SoFi will offer private market products
“And even I think we'll get to the Robin Hoods, the Revoluts, the SoFi's, which has embedded some private markets products to the wealth channel within their complex as well.”
U.S. entitlement to discretionary spending ratio will hit 5:1 within a decade
“Because in 1970, the country spent the same amount on entitlement spending As it did on all of the rest of the non-entitlement discretionary spending. And so that one to one ratio became one and a half to one, then two to one. And now it's three to one, and it…”
Rodman: Rosatom's Exclusion From the West Will Create a Massive Fuel Deficit
“They're close to 50% of the market, and over time, they'll be cut out of western markets, in our opinion, which will create a very big deficit.”
Rodman: Uranium enrichers will shift from suppliers to net buyers
“What the market hasn't fully digested yet, because this market moves in slow motion, is that on a go forward basis, you probably aren't going to get supply from enrichers, and it's very likely that you actually have demand from enrichers, which is a process th…”
The OCIO industry and its service models will consolidate by 2028
“If we looked up five, 10 years, I'd say we're in the early innings in the sense of there will be consolidation in the industry. And there also, there will be a consolidation of models, you know, in terms of, you know, what clients want in terms of their OCIO p…”
McCusker: More Institutional Firms Will Merge With RIA Platforms
“The other thing is this is going to continue to happen. I don't think these are the last two firms that are going to tie up with RIA platforms.”
Khajuria: Private equity minimum investments are dropping to $10,000
“There are 50,000 dollar tickets. There are 20,000 dollar tickets. There are 10,000 dollar tickets coming out. And it's not fully available to retail, but it's coming.”
Majewski: Eagle Point will see a down 10%+ month in five years
“In the next five years, we're going to have a down 10% plus month. I don't know when. I don't know why. I know it's going to happen, and if that's not something you're comfortable with, this is probably not the right investment for you.”
Bank: Talent shift toward multi-manager hedge funds will continue
“So I think that shift of talent toward these bigger platforms is likely to continue.”
Garg: Y Combinator companies will create $500B to $1T in value
“Like, look at Y Combinator. They were giving people 25 to 250,000 dollars, and out of that came Stripe and Airbnb. When you add up all those companies, I think they're probably going to end up creating five hundred billion to a trillion dollars of value.”